Rolex Sydney Hobart - After Storm challenges ahead for Race leaders
by Rob Kothe and the Sail-World Team on 28 Dec 2010

Sydney Hobart 2010 Predict Wind Tuesday-4am PredictWind.com
www.predictwind.com
Rolex Sydney Hobart day 3 morning update.
After a horror crossing of Bass Strait, Bob Oatley's Wild Oats XI is well placed to win both on line honours and handicap in this 66th annual race. However she has many more challenges as dawn breaks.
While computer calculations suggest the race leader will romp into Hobart mid-afternoon, there is much more racing to be done with a difficult approach to the Tasmanian coast ahead.
Mark Richards and his super maxi team, just 220 miles from Hobart have pushed wide, they are now 100 miles east of Eddystone Light in an attempt to avoid a large area of light winds as they head towards Tasman Island.
Sean Langman's Investec Loyal is another 20 miles wider. In contrast Grant Wharington's Wild Thing is much closer to the rhumbline and sixty miles closer to the coast, while Niklas Zennstrom's 72 footer Ran has taken a much more direct route south and could struggle in the next six hours with the area of soft winds which stretches from Flinders Island to St Helens. (It's currently blowing at five knots from the south west at Eddystone Point)
The 50 and 60 footers behind them are likely to have a much simpler passage down the Tasmanian coast as northerly winds begin to increase and the 35-45 footers may be in the box seat tonight.
With eight out top 10 boats having only dead reckoning positions as at the time of writing, meaningful conclusions on the current race handicap situations are not possible and Sail-World.com recommends the radio skeds for more information.
The last report was at 005 and the next will be at 0735.
Radio Position Report at 005
Here
The stormy conditions on the Victorian coast and into Bass Strait have taken a large toll on the fleet. After the first night there was just one retirement, Jazz Player, who destroyed her mainsail during a reefing manoeuvre but yesterday afternoon the fleet was decimated, with another 15 boats retiring from the race.
Here is the latest list of retirements:
Salona II - Steering Problems - Proceeding to Eden
Brindabella - damaged mainsail - At Eden
Yuuzoo - torn headsail - heading to Eden
Calm - Retired - in Eden
Pirelli Celestial - Sail damage - heading to Eden
Scarlet Runner - Sail damage - in Eden
Nemesis - Retired - Heading to Eden
Alchemy III - boom damage - proceeding Sydney
Bacardi - broken mast - proceeding to Ulladulla ETA 2225
Exile - steering damage - proceeding to Sydney ETA 1100 Tues 28 December
Southern Excellence - returning to Sydney ETA Midnight 28th December
Shamrock - damage to rudder bearing - eta sydney 8am 28th December
Wot Eva - engine problem - ETA Sydney Midnight Tues 28th December
Swish - radio damage - heading to Sydney
Jazz Player - damaged mainsail - returned to Sydney
For those with some time here is the Live Streaming audio from the HF radio frequencies. The Radio sked will start at 0735 AEST
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