Ericsson 4 - the Volvo Ocean Race Escape Artist

by Mark Chisnell on 27 Nov 2008
Torben Grael and Ericsson 4 pulled off a Harry Houdini yesterday morning, escaping into a rain cloud and gaining 30 miles on the chasing pack. Grael has clearly done his 10,000 hours of practice – get off of my cloud.

Behind them, Ericsson 3, PUMA and Green Dragon all struggled as Delta Lloyd scrambled out of the pocket and threw their own Hail Mary - up to fourth, and very happy this morning.

At 10:00 ZULU, everyone looked to have cleared the worst of the Doldrums (I’m touching wood as I type that), and were sailing north in a sporadically freshening north-westerly. Ericsson 4 had rebuilt her lead from the scoring gate, and some, with Ericsson 3 trailing in her wake. Behind her, but slightly further to the west were Green Dragon, with Delta Lloyd and PUMA on her tail.

Our outliers were still there – 60 miles to the west, Telefonica Blue led her sistership, Telefonica Black, on a parallel course to the main pack. But all the promise of Team Russia’s assault on the eastern front had collapsed. She was forced west overnight – I think we can assume that they got nailed by a cloud, but as they aren’t sending back anything more than the basic data, I can’t tell you any more. The result is that all the leverage they had to the east has gone – closed out by the leaders and the main pack. Nothing left for them but to struggle through, follow everyone north, and wait for the next restart – their grim fate summarized by today’s graph of Distance to Leader (DTL in the Data Centre) – as well as a look at the chaotic True Wind Speed (TWS) over the past 24 hours.

So, what was I saying yesterday about the reality of the Doldrums – one boat sitting becalmed while another sails away in a cloud? Shortly after that, this email came through from Aksel Magdahl, navigator onboard Ericsson 3, describing the critical moment in Ericsson 4’s escape to (probable) victory.

But you wouldn’t have thought so, to hear Ericsson 4 navigator, Jules Salter, yesterday afternoon, as he explained their break away in the cloud to Guy Swindells. By then, they too were stationary – awaiting the decision on their fate from the wind gods. And this time it was the thumbs up. Salter felt then that, in hindsight, they should have gone further east – and they’ve made up for it since. Squeezing through a gap in the Doldrums that closed behind them.

But Anders Lewander and Ericsson 3 didn’t let themselves get rattled by the vanishing act that their sistership had pulled, and despite missing their radar, have held second - just. They can’t relax, with around 20 miles between them and sixth placed PUMA. And for once, it’s Ken Read and his team that have taken a hammering, as Read reported this morning.

The big question now is to what extent the squeeze box - having bunched the fleet up in the light wind – is going to drag them apart again as the leaders sail back into better breeze first. The latest analysis from Race Forecaster, Jennifer Lilly, was predicting that after a period of reasonable westerly breeze (and heavy rain in the Race Village, oh joy), the brakes will come back on – probably tomorrow afternoon for Ericsson 4, I’d say. So it looks like there’s at least one more cycle of the squeeze box between here and the finish line.

That will keep the pressure on the group in the main pack as a single cloud could make the difference between second and sixth. While the Predicted Route image this morning shows the rather random prospects of the boats on the eastern and western flanks. Compare and contrast that image to yesterday’s. Same weather forecasting model, one day later – and Team Russia go from battling for the podium to struggling to avoid the wooden spoon.

Meanwhile, Telefonica Blue draw the biggest Get Out of Jail for Free Card we’ve seen so far – as navigator, Simon Fisher was hoping yesterday. Or have they? Who’s to say that by tomorrow it won’t all have changed again? The leverage is still there, and until Telefonica Blue are back with the pack the risk of both gains and losses remains high. As the wise old sage, Andrew Cape, navigator aboard PUMA, said yesterday - you’ve just got to get stuck in and sail the boat … not that it’s done him much good, as Ian Walker related in this email this morning – just a 100 metres between happiness and despair...

Did I mention that there was some luck involved in this sport? And there’s going to be no shortage of passing lanes between here and the finish. According to the weather routing, Ericsson 4 are going to have to sail the final 300 miles in less than five knots of breeze (unfurl that Code Zero) – much of it upwind. You can play the weather forward for the next 36 hours in the Race Viewer - click on the ‘three wind arrows’ icon, and then use the buttons at the bottom of the chart to change the time.

The outlook is a little different for those behind them, but any upwind sailing is not good for the prospects of Green Dragon (without their boom) or Telefonica Blue (without their daggerboard). Chuck that into a constantly shifting weather pattern and you have one very volatile mix for the run in…

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