'Arthur' Weakening, but Many Hurricanes Forecast

by Dan Shapely/Sail-World on 2 Jun 2008 The Hurricane Season only started yesterday, and already there's a named Tropical Storm and sailors should be aware that a heavy hurricane season is forecast. 'Arthur' has weakened to a tropical depression yesterday (Sunday) after soaking the Yucatan Peninsula, but still threatened to cause dangerous flooding and mudslides in Mexico, Belize and Guatemala.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami warned that remnants of the first named storm of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season could still cause potential life-threatening floods and mudslides.

Rains could total of 5 inches to 10 inches (12 to 25 centimeters) across portions of Belize, Guatemala and southeastern Mexico, with isolated rainfall up to 15 inches (38 centimeters) possible.

At 6 p.m. EDT (2200 GMT), the center of the depression was located near the border of Guatemala and Mexico, about 80 miles southeast of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico.

It was moving west-southwest at about 6 miles (10 kph). Maximum sustained winds were near 35 miles (55 kph).

In the meantime, The Daily Green reports that forecasters from government, business and academic institutions are unanimous: An above-average hurricane season is expected.

The forecast from the government's Climate Prediction Center says it's likely that 2008 will be an active year for hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean. For gamblers, there's a 65% probability that we'll see an above-average storm season, a 25% chance it will be average and just 10% that it will be below average.

What does that mean? It means there's a good chance there'll be 12 to 16 named storms, including six to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).

Average is 11 named storms including six hurricanes, two of them major storms.

While the hurricane season officially began June 01, storms typically reach a peak in late summer.

Last season did not produce the predicted number of storms. There were more named storms but fewer hurricanes than predicted. Those hurricanes that did form intensified rapidly before landfall, and the first-ever record of back-to-back Category 5 landfalls came when Hurricanes Dean and Felix hit Central America. (The names Dean and Felix, along with Noel, a weaker but deadly 2007 Caribbean storm, have been retired.)

'Americans in hurricane-prone states must get serious and be prepared. Government – even with the federal, tribal, state and local governments working perfectly in sync – is not the entire answer. Everyone is part of the emergency management process,' FEMA Administrator R. David Paulison warned recently. 'We must continue to develop a culture of preparedness in America in which every American takes personal responsibility for his or her own emergency preparedness.'

The last several months have seen a flurry of science related to global warming and hurricanes. A longtime proponent of the idea that warmer ocean temperatures will produce stronger storms, Kerry Emanuel, has called that hypothesis into doubt. But the government has said that warmer oceans will produce fewer, but stronger storms in the coming decades. The jury, it seems, is still out, as scientists study the complex forces that influence hurricane behavior.

This year, a lingering La Niña (cool pattern) in the Southern Pacific, warmth in the tropical Atlantic, and the strong-phase of a multidecadal storm activity cycle are expected to be driving forces behind an active storm year.