Editorial- Will it be 'sayonara' to USA-98?

by nzeditor@sail-world.com on 20 May 2007 Welcome to Sail-World.Com’s America’s Cup newsletter for Day 5 of the Semi-Finals of the Louis Vuitton Cup

BMW Oracle Racing team boss, Larry Ellison, previously owned a supermaxi yacht, Sayonara which was a top performer on the offshore racing circuit. Her name means 'farewell' or 'good bye' in Japanese.

She was Ellison's entree into the America's Cup, with many of the team that he now has in Valencia.

At this stage of the Louis Vuitton regatta, the name seems to be rather prophetic.

There is another piece of prophecy in Rowing, and most high performance sports, which says that Performance equals Potential minus Mistakes.

It follows that you can have a quick boat, but if there is significant operator error, then you may be no better than a slower boat, which is well sailed, making few mistakes.

That formula was certainly demonstrated today, in the pre-start of the match between BMW ORACLE Racing and Luna Rossa. It has also been an interesting measure of performance of all the teams during this event.

In the closing seconds of the pre-start, Chris Dickson was pushed over the startline at the pin end by James Spithill in Luna Rossa. Dickson rounded the pin end with 32 seconds to run on the start, ran flat, and then flicked onto port a little early, in my view.

Spithill on Luna Rossa realised that the US Challenger was the give way boat and was badly caught. He stayed on starboard and lined up USA-98. Dickson was left with only one option which was to luff and try to cut across the Italian bow.

He didn’t have enough runway for this move and Spithill called for the penalty, and then called for the second penalty, when he realised that Dickson had managed to shoot through to leeward, and had gained from the first infringement.

Before the umpires could rule, Dickson made the decision for them, by quickly swinging his transom into Luna Rossa and incurring a second penalty, along with a red flag – meaning that one penalty had to be done immediately.

In spite of the two incidents, Dickson had gained sufficiently, to be ahead of Spithill as they cleared the startline. As the two boats started up the track, Dickson looked for a gap so he could start his immediate penalty, Spithill made his hard life even more difficult, with a slow luff followed by a blocking tack, forcing Dickson to tack back and then start his first 270 turn.

By the time they had settled down the margin was over 100 metres in favour of the Italian, and any hope of an Australia II style 3-1 comeback was virtually gone.

The seabreeze today was a light 6-10 knots with some variance in direction, but easing as the day wore on.

Sailing a boat that is at least of equal in speed to USA-98, the Italians made no mistakes, and eased away to a very comfortable win, gaining on every leg.

That puts the pre-series favourites down 4-1, which in spite of all the brave talk from the US challenger, will be very difficult to overcome.

Yes, such a comeback has been done before by Il Moro di Venezia against the tandem keeled, bowsprited NZL-20. However that margin was quickly turned into a 4-2 result after a Jury decision on the use of the bowsprit by the Kiwis. The Italians, led by Paul Cayard, were able to climb back into the game as the mistakes and crew changes flowed from the Kiwi camp.

USA-98 didn't improve on her leg win/loss record today, and has now only led at the end of just one of the last 24 legs sailed. Enough to give her the single race win of these Semi-Finals.

Emirates Team New Zealand put together a regulation win over Desafio Espanol, after getting a little shaken up at the start. NZL-92 suffered a little from a time on distance error and was forced into a low speed tack right under the Committee Boat. At the other end of the line. the Spanish quickly turned this into a 60 metre advantage, however the better Potential of the Kiwi boat and crew showed itself, as they began to lift and climb away from ESP-97.

Like Luna Rossa, in their trailing match, Emirates Team New Zealand continued to extend on every leg.

So it is all on to determine whether tomorrow will be the final day in the Semi-Finals of the Louis Vuitton Cup.

For Emirates Team New Zealand, it is surely a matter of staying out of trouble at the start, and then using their Potential to work out a vital fifth win over the Spanish.

BMW Oracle Racing have their backs firmly to the wall. They have to adopt similar tactics to the Kiwis at the start and then try to work the edges on the wind shifts and pressure to eke a much needed win.

All Dickson and his crew have to do is to extend the game for another day.

They have the Potential, it's the Mistakes that seem to be the problem.

Otherwise they will sadly, and very surprisingly, it will be 'Sayonara' for BMW Oracle Racing, as they exit the Louis Vuitton Cup after the next race.

Good sailing!

Richard Gladwell
NZ Editor

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