Whether the weather gate opens for you?

by Rob Kothe on 28 Dec 2005 Computer driven handicap predictions for the 628 mile Rolex Sydney to Hobart race, ignore the fact, that most races are won and lost in the last 40 miles from Tasman Light across Storm Bay, past the Iron Pot and up the Derwent.

Every ten minutes of so, the computers spit out a new number set, with ranking. At best, these need to be taken with a tablespoon of sea salt.

In the maze of numbers, there is one more important than all the others, in deciding if the figures are 'back of the boat fantasy land stuff' or not.

It’s the ETA.

According to the computer, Bill Wild’s Wedgetail is predicted to finish at 4:44am tomorrow morning. That means she’ll need to fly up the Derwent at ten knots.

Nooooo-way, she’ll need to be an Eagle to do that in the wee small hours.

The reason is the factor that has caused heartache and grief in the last 60 Hobart races. The Derwent River goes to sleep at night.

A boat arriving at the Iron Pot 11 miles from the finish line might have averaged ten knots from Eddystone Light to Storm Bay. However it may take two or three or four hours, depending just how tired the Derwent is.

So it's way to early to decide handicap chances except to say that two of the boats tied up in Constitution Dock, Wild Oats XI and Alfa Romeo, are looking good.

As Grant Wharington commented some time ago; ‘This is a race that is often won from the Customs House Hotel or the Shipwrights Arms.'

Not just a few sailors have had the Weather Gate slam in their face; just about every one of us has had a 'Derwent experience'.

So we are not going to spend tonight writing feverishly about the half hourly changes in Handicap positions, we are going to have a few Tasmanian Boags or Cascades and do what the Derwent does - go to sleep.