Paris 2024: Universality set to take a hit from Mixed Events

by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz 22 May 2018 03:42 PDT 22 May 2018

"Universality" was an oft-quoted piece of IOC-speak at the recent World Sailing Mid-Year Meeting in London.

For those outside the Lausanne-bubble, Universality is an all-encompassing term to describe the spread of a sport - numbers of continents or countries participating in Sailing, and more particularly in the Olympic Regatta.

The 2009-10 ISAF Olympic Commission was the first to highlight that Sailing had several issues to address regarding Universality.

For instance, Sailing was very under-represented in Africa - not just at Olympic Regatta - but also the number of countries in that continent which were affiliated to World Sailing, compared to the number that were affiliated to the International Olympic Committee.

Back in 2008, 53 countries in the African continent were members of the IOC, but just 15 of those were also members of the then ISAF. In the same vein, Oceania was 17/11, Asia 44/25, and America 42/29. Europe was almost in balance with 49 IOC members and 46 members of then-ISAF.

In 2018, a quick count of current Member National Authorities listed by World Sailing shows 149 listed which is very close to the target set by the Olympic Commission of 150 by 2016. However, 10 of that 149 are under suspension for failure to pay their fees to World Sailing, with a further 18 on 30 days notice or face suspension.

In 2004 then-ISAF had just 114 MNA's as members, which increased to 126 by 2008 and then onto the current level of 149. Africa has grown from 15 affiliated nations to 21, but seven of those are currently suspended for non-payment of membership fees.

In one of the Universality measurements, the trend is one step forward and one step back. The issue is compounded with the expected drop in participating countries in the 2024 Olympic Sailing regatta in Marseille.

The ratio of IOC affiliates to World Sailing affiliaton becomes significant when sports are selected - why would you support the continuance of a sport that has no representation or participation in your country?

No upside from Mixed classes

It is quite clear from the analysis there is a lot of downside and little upside in reducing the Olympic entry quota of what the sailing politicians call the Universality classes (the Mens and Womens One-Person Dinghy, and the Mens and Womens Windsurfer).

Entry numbers have to shrink from 2016 levels (380 total) to create the Olympic regatta positions for the four Mixed classes for Paris 2024, which has a maximum 350 places for Sailors.

Two of the Mixed events involve pseudo-singlehanded events, with male and female sailors competing in a joint event not widely practiced in the sport. The two mixed events appear to have been introduced to balance the gender accounting.

Significantly in 2004, the then ISAF was sixth smallest (at 114 MNA's) of all the Olympic Sports. Two of the sports below Sailing in 2004, Baseball and Softball (third and fifth lowest ranked) were later dropped as Olympic Sports. Updated data is not readily available.

With the requirement for gender equality in terms of participation and medal opportunities/events it is now relatively easy to calculate the sizes of the fleets and in particular, see the changes and how they could affect the International Olympic Committee's view of Sailing pre and post 2024 Olympics.

Many have warned of the impact that selection of four Mixed events would have on the numbers of countries able to enter the 2024 Olympics - expecting the current borderline participation number to drop further.

At the Mid Year meeting in London, the RYA's Ian Walker urged the World Sailing Council to steer away from four mixed events, which meant six double-handed classes, he claimed that with the entry cap of 350 sailors the loading of numbers into three additional Mixed classes would mean reduced entries in other events. However, he was ignored.

With World Sailing required to allocate Qualification events to be contested on a regional basis, and with the first round of Qualification taking place at the combined World Championships two years before the Olympic Regatta, the reduction in available places for Marseille will hit those competitors/countries who expect to qualify in the second round. In some events there may be only 10 places available in the first and second rounds.

Over the past four Olympiads, Athens scored the lowest in Universality with 60 nations in 2004, which improved to 66 in Rio in 2016. Sailing is flatlining in its participation. The "Universality" statistic has dropped from the 78 countries which participated in the Sydney Olympics in 2000 to the mid-60's in 2016. World Sailing is able to pump the numbers a little through Tripartite offers - usually of unallocated places in the single handed events - by offering a place to a country that is not competing in the Olympic Regatta via the regular qualification process.

The Universality trend indicates that the Rich are getting Richer - with the developed sailing countries taking more places in 2016 than in 2000 when the Sailing event was more egalitarian.

Juggling the fleet sizes

Using an underlying assumption of 20 boats for fleets like the Nacra 17, 49er and 49er FX - being the same size as the fleet in Brazil, it is possible to make an educated guess at the size of the remaining fleets for the 2024 Olympic Regatta in Marseille - given that Mens and Womens fleets have to be equal size in the event category.

Also, 20 boats is about the minimum size for a Medal Race event where the top 10 participate in the final race of the series.

Three crewed events (49er, 49erFX and Nacra 17) remain the same as they did in Rio.

Assuming the Mixed One-Person Dinghy goes ahead with a Finn for the men and a new class for the Women, we put that at 15 boats per fleet or a total of 30 sailors. The same for the Mixed Kiteboard.

For the Men competing in the Mens side of the Mixed One-person Dinghy equation, that is a loss of seven places from the 23 boat Finn fleet in 2016. And for Women that is a gain of 15 positions in an event that was not contested in 2016 or will be in 2020.

Quite how that Mixed One-Person Dinghy event is played out remains to be seen.

Only five nations had sailors in both the Women's One-person Dinghy (Laser Radial) and the then Heavyweight Mens Dinghy (Finn) in 2016. The real struggle will be to obtain attract female competitors across from the current women's classes and throw their hand in with a male sailor/partner in their shadow event.

For the current male Finn sailors it is less of a transition, as they just stay with their current class.

It remains to be seen how national authorities will run their selection process - with the options being to select the top Finn and a top single-handed sailor from the female class, and call them a team. Or, they could encourage the sailors to pair up and be selected as a combo.

The other selection dilemma is whether national authorities will look at the event as being dependent on the two sailors as a combination being "medal capable". (Meaning that you could have one outstanding sailor in one fleet and another better than mediocre performer in the other.) Or whether they will not select at all unless they have two crews clearly in the top ten.

Another point with the new Mixed event is how countries, particularly emerging nations, will respond if they only have a sailor in one of the two classes, i.e. they have a female sailor who can compete in the new class, but no Finn sailor or vice versa. In 2016 there were only five countries with sailors in both the Laser Radial and Finn classes.

The Mens One-Person Dinghy (Laser) takes a hit in 2024 Olympic places with a reduction of 16 places from the 46 they had in Rio to get to the 30 strong fleet size that is likely for Marseille. The Women's One-Person Dinghy (Laser Radial) fleet also drops by seven places from Rio to also be 30 boats - the same as the Men.

The two Windsurfer events go up and down. Women have their fleet increase from 26 in Rio to 30 in Marseille. The Men's Windsurfer fleet drops six places to 30.

The big gain is the Mixed Kiteboard which comes in taking 30 athletes for a 15 "boat" event - they have the same number of competitors as the Mixed One-Person Dinghy classes.

For their national authorities, the Kites will pose the same set of selection dilemmas as the Mixed One-Person Dinghy.

Kiteboard struggling for female sailors in rankings

The dropping of the Mens Two-handed Dinghy (470) has dumped 52 places into the pool for re-allocation. The Mens 470 was the largest class at the Rio Olympics. Between them the Mens and Womens Two Person Dinghy had 92 places in the fleet at Rio. Now a Mixed two-Person Dinghy a fleet size of 25 boats seems reasonable for 50 places from the 350 Olympic quota that will apply in Tokyo in 2020 and hopefully remain for Paris in 2024.

The overall effect on the Universality question cannot be calculated at this point. The imponderables being whether a drop of 16 places and therefore countries in the Mens Laser will affect the overall participation numbers, or if the drop in the Laser, Laser Radial and Windsurfer will offset by a new countries coming into the Kiteboard event.

On the current analysis of world ranking as of December 2017, the Kiteboard ranking list is not riddled with nationalities which are not already in the pre-existing Olympic entries. In fact in the Top-50 of the Men's Formula Kite, there are only two countries - Mongolia and Bulgaria who were not represented in Rio.

The Women's rankings in the Formula Kite have only ten countries in total being ranked - five short of a full fleet in 2024.

The same issue will probably exist in the other Mixed One-Person Dinghy - given that there are no suitable classes that are brimming with female sailors, outside the current Olympic fleet. While it is one thing to require a 50/50 gender balance, that is well out of step with the sailing population demographics.

If World Sailing adopted the formula of only limiting the size of fleets to 50% of the ranked competitors by country, on the current data, there would be some very small events indeed. However the effect of not adopting such a ratio means that the womens side of both the One-Person Mixed events becomes seen as a "soft" medal. That is not a great look for the sport, and doesn't tick the IOC's boxes either.

World Sailing's intention is to hold trials, and select a class for several of the new Events. At that point the hope will be that there is some transfer from the existing women's singlehanded ranks to the new class. That transfer is needed just to get the numbers necessary to make up an Olympic fleet, without trying to improve Universality statistics.

This is not a strong situation for Sailing at an Olympic level, and weak make-up Mixed events just invite further event reduction by the IOC.

Based on the guesstimated fleet allocations, it is a reasonable expectation that the Universality measurement will drop by about ten nations for the 2024 Olympic Regatta. The reduction of 30 sailors from the 380 maximum allowed at 2016 Olympics - has not helped the Universality cause. That reduction was triggered by the IOC needing to introduce five new sports, while maintaining total athlete numbers close to 10,500 - in fact there will be 10,601 athletes at Tokyo in 2020. Yachting nations rejected 40 qualifier positions for 2016 in Rio and the 2020 reduction by 30 spots is not a surprising outcome.

One approach to right the Universality boat could be to increase the number of places available through regional qualification. But the consequence of that is to reduce competitor places further up the fleet and overall the effect is to lower the standard of sailing. a feature that is all too obvious to observers on the water.

Quite how World Sailing rationalises this new situation to the International Olympic Committee will be interesting to see. Or, will there be a re-think of the 2024 Event options at the November Annual Conference? And maybe, just maybe, will they look at the Big Picture first?

Also will World Sailing's Council members take the time to find out for themselves exactly what the IOC really means by Gender Equality, before confirming the distorted Sailing program for the 2024 Olympics?

Yet to be determined is where the Mixed Kiteboard, and Mens and Womens Windsurfer events will be held - at the Sailing venue in Marseille, on the Mediterranean. Or, at the Surfing venue of Biarritz, 650km away from Marseille on the Atlantic coast?