North Sails Weather Forecast Airlie Beach RW Day 3

by Kenn Batt on 13 Aug 2006 North Sails Weather Forecast 2006 Airlie Beach Race Week
Issued by Kenn Batt at 0600hr for Sunday 13th August 2006

Synoptic Discussion:

A large 1026 hPa high is situated over southern NSW and is moving NE. This high is extending a weakening ridge along the Queensland coast.

Observations:

At 0600hr surface winds over the Airlie Beach area were out of the SSW averaging around 10kn. This was indicative of a combination land breeze/synoptic flow. At Hamilton Island the wind was SE at 16kn, gusting 20kt indicative of the general synoptic flow. There were some isolated showers to the east of the Whitsundays area.

Forecast Winds for middle of Pioneer Bay (Check out other possibilities below)
1000: 150/17 gust 25kn
Noon: 140/17 gust 25kn
1400: 130/16 gust 24kn
1600: 110/16 gust 22kn
1800: 130/15 gust 20kn

Wind is expected to be squally and erratic in direction with showers.
Winds about 5-10 kn stronger at times and generally a little more right in Whitsunday/Molle Channels area. Wind also funnels out of bays and can become squally around some headlands.

NOTE 1: Wind directions MAGNETIC, first speed is 10 min average and last speed is the maximum one minute gust during the 10min period leading up to the forecast hour. All at a height of 10m.

NOTE 2: The trend in both wind direction and speed is the most important aspect of any marine forecast. Forecast values will differ from observed values from time to time for a number of reasons including yacht’s position within race area, compass calibration, instrument calibration, land mass in the flow, channeling out of bays and channels, showers, etc.


REMARKS:
Natural oscillations around 10 to 20 deg away from effects of topography, tending around 20 to 50 deg (with the chance of 'bullets') closer to the effects of any land mass. Any shower activity could lead to some short-lived squally and erratic winds.

Other Possibilities:
60% chance that wind speed will be 2-3 knots lighter than forecast.
60% chance that wind direction reaches 090 deg later this afternoon.
20% chance that wind speed will be 3-5 knots stronger than forecast above.
Weather

Cloudy with the chance of some showers about. Take plenty of sunscreen and warm clothes including wet weather gear.
Maximum land temperature at Airlie Beach: 22 degrees Sea Temp: 20 degrees

Wind Waves: 1.0 to 2.0 metres. Less closer to land. Note: that wind opposing tide can create higher than forecast wave heights.
Swell: SE 1.0 to 2.0m. (Wave heights quoted are Significant wave heights). Current: A very strong tidal influence. Tide roughly floods to the south and ebbs to the north in the Whitsundays area (see back page of sailing instructions for further details on tidal flows).

Outlook

Monday: Early shower then fine. SE/NE 10 to 15kn.
Tuesday: Fine. E/NE 8 to 15kn.

Tides for Shute Harbour   

Fri 11		Sat 12		Sun 13		Mon 14		Tue 15		Wed 16		Thu 17
Time	Ht	Time	Ht	Time	Ht	Time	Ht	Time	Ht	Time	Ht	Time	Ht
0603	0.38	0021	3.85	0104	3.55	0149	3.16	0245	2.74	0411	2.41	0010	1.17
1200	2.87	0646	0.39	0731	0.45	0821	0.55	0922	0.65	1034	0.71	0549	2.28
1743	0.20	1250	2.90	1344	2.89	1446	2.87	1605	2.91	1730	3.06	1151	0.69
		1833	0.44	1929	0.76	2040	1.08	2221	1.26			1847	3.29