Volvo Ocean Race- Front runners open gap for Cape Town
by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz on 28 Oct 2014
October 27, 2014. Leg 1 onboard Team SCA. Carolijn Brouwer helms at sunrise. Corinna Halloran / Team SCA
The two front runners in the Volvo Ocean Race fleet, Team Brunel and Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing have opened up a gap on the peloton of the fleet.
The move for some of the fleet to the South American coast does not appear to have paid off, and according to the course routing function of
Predictwind the lead two boats have opened a lead of 44hours on the next group comprising Team Vestas Wind, DongFeng Race Team and Team Alvimedica.
The reason for the gap is that the two leaders are expected to get into a more favourable weather system which will allow them to take a more direct route to the leg finish in Cape Town, while the course options for the next three are a lot more complex, as navigators attempt to keep the distance to be sailed to a minimum, while trying to keep boat speeds as high as possible within that constraint.
The prognosis from the routing model for them is that the shortest time to finish comes from sailing a longer distance at a faster speed rather than taking a more direct route at a slower speed. The Longer distance/faster speed model could quickly change if there is a change in forecasted weather - which case the distance between the poleton and the lead group will reduce substantially as their courses become more aligned.
The prospect of the new speed distance record being set around October 31 - November 1 appears to be less definite, however the record would still seem to be dangling - if the weather co-operates.
The Team with the best chance of the record would seem to be Team Vestas Wind, who look to be positioned for a fast run at that crucial time.
With 2900nm sailing miles predicted to be left in the race for the two lead boats and 3600nm sailing miles for the peloton, attention will probably shift to shoring up a points position at the finish of the first Leg.
Currently two hours separate Team Bunel and Abu Dhabi - and they will be looking to secure first and second for the leg.
Behind those two three boats are covered by just 45 minutes - and on the table are points for third to fifth place.
On current on the water positions, and with the forecast weather feeds for the coming week, Mapfre is a day behind the peloton, with the womens crew of Team SCA six hours astern of Mapfre and more in the centre of the course.
Courses for all boats show a deep dive into the Southern Ocean, but given that the fleet is close to the latitude for the finish in Cape Town, it is likely that a more direct route will be followed.
The prognosis from Predictwind is based on finishing times on South Africa in over a week's time, and not the current distance to finish miles on the Volvo Ocean Race Leaderboard.
The latest updates from Volvo Ocean Race Control are as follows:
Latest position report: October 27, 2014 - 1700 UTC
Spread of fleet: 224 nautical miles
Wind Speed: 13-20 knots
Boat speed: 13-19 knots
Wind direction: Average 28º
Lowest boat speed: 13 knots (Team Brunel)
Highest boat speed: 19 knots (Team Alvimedica)
Lowest wind speed: 13 knots (Team Brunel)
Highest wind speed: 20 knots (MAPFRE)
The question in recent days has been 'when will the teams head east towards Cape Town?', but at around 0900 UTC this morning, the fleet leaders Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing and Team Brunel actually gybed west, towards the Brazilian coast in order to generate more distance between themselves and the light winds of the St. Helena High.
An hour later, at around 1000 UTC, the Danish boat, Team Vestas Wind, followed suit, and at 1500 UTC, Dongfeng Race Team also replicated the gybe.
Wind speed has remained moderate, indeed, the sailors have been commenting how perfect the sailing is of late, and has been coming from a north-north easterly direction, which means that those at the front of the pack have had less wind than the chasers.
That has meant that we've seen compression in the fleet - the distance between the front few and those at the back has grown shorter, and continues to do so.
For more information on the tracker, the decision to head south and the ranking criteria, check out this in-depth explanation from our resident meteorology expert, Gonzalo.
Latest position report: October 27, 2014 0630 UTC
Spread of fleet: 240 nautical miles
Wind speed: 16 knots
Boat speed: 14-20 knots
Wind direction: 170º
Lowest boat speed: 14 knots (Team SCA)
Highest boat speed: 20 knots (Dongfeng Race Team)
Lowest wind speed: 15 knots (Team Vestas Wind)
Highest wind speed: 19 knots (Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing, Dongfeng Race Team, Team Alvimedica)
The story today is one of caution. Who pulls the trigger and makes a move? The leaders or the chasing pack?
There is a small low-pressure system forming to the south. It’s about how many more miles you sail to get to it or whether you sail fewer miles and have it come to you.
The latter option involves turning to port earlier and risking a light air rendezvous with the St. Helena High. And that’s not something you want to say ‘hi’ to when you’re racing to Cape Town.
The leaders have to sail further south and thus more sides of the triangle. The cheeky chasing pack may be able to cut the corner, sail fewer miles and catch up.
For now the fleet just love the reasonably comfortable sailing, if that is possible in a Volvo Ocean 65.
At 20º south it’s not cold, the water temperature is 26º and the air temperature is the same. That is not the case where they are going next, all the way down to the Roaring 40’s
Last word with Amory Ross, onboard reporter with Team Alvimedica, who sums up life onboard neatly: 'We’re basking in the traditional south-east trade winds, serving up a gorgeous dosage of 20-knot perfection squarely on the beam.
'An occasional cloud brings a bit of Brazilian fever, a quick reef and some warm water over the deck, but on the whole these days are exactly what you have in mind when you sign up for this race.'
Latest position report: October 26, 2014 1700 UTC
Spread of fleet: North/South 24 miles, East/West 95 miles
Wind speed: 13-17 knots
Boat speed: 15-19 knots
Wind direction: Average 56º
Lowest wind: 13 knots (Dongfeng Race Team)
Highest wind: 17 knots (Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing)
Lowest boat speed: 15 knots (Dongfeng Race Team)
Highest boat speed: 19 knots (Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing)
As the fleet continues to head south, the wind is slowly decreasing. There has been a drop of 2-3 knots over the course of the day, and that is still falling.
Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing, Team Brunel and Team Vestas Wind still lead the seven boats, and are currently sailing in a south/south easterly direction trying to navigate around the St Helena high pressure system.
Interestingly, MAPFRE and Team SCA are sailing much closer to the Brazilian close. This might be with the intention of hooking into a small low pressure system close to Rio de Janeiro.
It's a risk, but if it comes off, it could have massive implications on the rankings.
But it might be a decision made out of desperation rather than strategy,as, over the last 24 hours, Ian Walker's Emirati boat has sailed the most miles, and MAPFRE the least.
Meanwhile, Dongfeng Race Team is still struggling to catch the breeze - at the time of writing, they are experiencing the lowest wind speed, and as such, have the lowest boat speed of the whole fleet.
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