Cup Spy: Preview - Day 5 - Make or break for both Defender and Challenger
by Richard Gladwell 18 Oct 2024 12:21 HKT
Louis Vuitton 37th America's Cup - Day 5 - LV Day 31 - October 18, 2024 - Barcelona © Ricardo Pinto / America's Cup
Today is a pivotal one in the 37th America's Cup - for both teams - but the pressure is still very much on the Brits.
After a day off, when neither team went sailing, INEOS Britannia and Emirates Team New Zealand will resume the Battle of Barcelona later today.
With the score now 4-2 in favour of the Defender, the Challenger's best outcome from today is to win two more races and that will take the score to 4-4, and that would mean that at least three races will be sailed in the weekend, and the America's Cup would likely continue into new week.
We get into the same scenario as happened in the Louis Vuitton Cup Final - where the teams kept wining one race a day, that does not work for the British - as the Kiwis will win their seventh race and the series on Monday with a 7-5 scoreline.
If the current Defender, Royal New Zealand Yacht Squadron win both races, then they progress to a 6-2 scoreline, and it is just a question of when the coup de grâce is administered, rather than if.
Light to almost moderate winds are forecast - but this is Barcelona and anything can happen. It did on Wednesday, when the race was given the all clear at three minutes to run - meaning that the 6.5kt minimum wind average had been achieved for a rolling 30sec period, measured at the top and bottom gates on the course for a period of five minutes.
What happened? Emirates Team New Zealand entered the start box close to one of those measuring points and almost immediately hit a low pressure zone with 4kts of breeze, made the mistake of trying to gybe in it, belly flopped, and came to a dead stop. That was the race decided then and there.
In the next race, the Kiwis made a slight tactical error and the Brits ripped through to windward, and got away to a slingshot start, which they were able to capitalise on and take the win.
It is now about momentum, the Kiwis have clearly lost it and will have to refocus and consolidate their lead, although it is not the end of the world is they lose both races.
The Brits have the momentum, but need to capitalise on that and get at least one more in out of the day.
As we noted in an updated report posted late last night www.sail-world.com/news/280569/Cup-Spy-Am-Cup-Day-4-Brits-return-fire the race is over at the first mark. The top three boats in this regatta have now sailed over 100 legs beyond the rounding of the first mark - and the lead hasn't changed.
That tells you something about the venue, the type of racing and the skill of the crews. They are all very even, and there is less than a 1% chance, for all the commentator hype, of there being a permanent lead change after Mark 1.
Barcelona is quite different from Auckland, Bermuda and San Francisco - being the America's Cups contested in foiling yachts.
Auckland we've discussed.
Both San Francisco and Bermuda had reaching starts and longer reach to the bottom of the course at Mark 2 - which is where the racing really began and from memory, having been on the course in a camera boat, there were plenty of lead changes - particularly if Team New Zealand was coming second in Bermuda, and if Oracle Racing were in the same place in San Francisco.
However that is not the case in Barcelona between the top three AC75s. After Mark 1 there is less than 1% chance of a change in finish place.
So rest easy, and put away the heart pills.
Weather Prognosis:
America's Cup Weather Partner PredictWind has provided a dedicated Race Weather Center offering fans access to detailed daily weather breakdowns, live webcams and historical weather data to daily weather breakdowns written by meteorologists.
Current Forecast Race Day 31:
Forecasts for Friday and Saturday
by Arnaud Monges, former America's Cup Team Meteorologist - Updated at 0700hrs UTC on November 18
Friday November 18, 2024
Driven by a large scale pressure gradient, the offshore wind conditions remain over Barcelona. In the morning winds blow from the North-West, and will decrease in strength and turn left. In the afternoon we expect winds around 7 to 12 knots from the West. Winds are expected gusty and shifty due to the city effect.
Sea state will decrease during the day, and in the afternoon waves of 0.8 meter come from the South at 5-second interval. The waves are not aligned with the wind, which could make tricky sailing conditions.
The sky will be cloudy and little risk of rain over the race course (rain expected further offshore to the North-East). Temperatures are lower with a maximum of 20°C.
Saturday October 19th, 2024
The offshore winds present in the morning are expected to die out by mid-day and be replaced by light and variable winds in the afternoon.
America's Cup Race Schedule - Races 5 & 6: Wednesday October 16, 2024
- Race 7: INEOS Britannia (GBR) (Port Startbox entry) vs Emirates Team New Zealand (Starboard Startbox Entry) vs Start: 14:10hrs CET
- Race 8: Emirates Team New Zealand (Port Startbox entry) vs INEOS Britannia (GBR) (Starboard Startbox Entry) Start: 1515hrs CET
Course Location:
INEOS Britannia Dockwalk
Virtual Eye
After the racing you can replay the key points, or the whole race using Virtual Eye from ARL This is the tool that Inside Tack are using to demonstrate various points - using the actual tracks of the AC75s.
You can go directly to the Virtual Eye America's Cup coverage by clicking here and click on "Watch Previous" then select the race you wish to view. Virtual Eye is a 3D viewer so you can zoom in, out, around and up and down just like you could in a helicopter.
Crew Lists
Additional Images: