Cup Spy: Preview - Will this be the Brits finest hour?
by Richard Gladwell 15 Oct 2024 22:04 PDT
INEOS Britannia - Race 4 - Louis Vuitton 37th America's Cup, Race Day 3 - October 14, .2024 © Ricardo Pinto / America's Cup
Pre-Race commentary: The Battle of Barcelona
Today will require the evocation of the finest qualities that make up the British character, that have come to the fore in warfare over the centuries, and have got the world's greatest seafaring nation out so many tight spots.
The Battle of Barcelona is the latest of these.
Yes the score is 4-0 in favour of the Royal New Zealand Yacht Squadron and to most the outcome is inevitable.
But a statistical analysis of the racing since the start of the Louis Vuitton Cup Finals, and the Match including Race 4 show that 85 legs have been changed without a lead change at a mark, after the first mark has been rounded - that is across 15 races. There is only one race, in the LV Finals where there has been a mark lead change was in Race 7 of the Final when Luna Rossa was leading an broke their main traveller support structure.
The analysis is even more more compelling when the Round Robin races between the two LV Finalists and Emirates Team New Zealand is added in, then the there are another 14 legs on which there was no lead change at a mark - and the no lead change count increases to 99 marks. That's 99 to zero or almost 100% certainty that after the lead boat has rounded the first mark, it will go onto win that race.
There is only one race in the group named above where there was a mark lead change, and that is in the first encounter between Luna Rossa and Emirates Team New Zealand, in Race 2 of he Round Robin when the Italians lead around Mark 2 and the Kiwis lead around Mark 3 and continued on to take the race win.
Our view is that these three boats are reasonably closely matched for speed and this is a valid comparison and commentary on racing in the AC75 class, as a type.
For Kiwi fans and viewers, it mean that you only have to watch the first mark rounding and then can safely head off to bed knowing the race outcome. It's also time to ring your favourite bookie and see if they will take a bet on the race outcome.
INEOS Britannia training in a seaway on Tuesday
Of course there are lead changes shown on the racing graphics, but the statistical evidence is that these are only transitory, and the race outcome will be the positions as they were at Mark 1.
What does this mean for INEOS Britannia?
Obviously to be first to round Mark 1. They almost did it in Race 4 - where it was judged to be a dead heat. Even a margin of two or three seconds is enough to work with - and statistically the result won't change.
As can be seen in the graphic there are not large speed differences between the boats, but the Brits do have a weakness in bottom of the tack/gybe speed - however at 25-26kts they are still well above the minimum speed to keep foiling.
While picking the wind shifts and pressure looks easy on video, have a look at one of the stern camera videos from the AC75s, and see the limited visibility and how hard it is pick wind shifts and those vital 1-2kts more pressure cells.
You've got to have a lot of sympathy for the pressure on the crews of having to think accurately, at high speed and with your back to the wall.
History shows that the British have overcome big odds many times. Will the Battle of Barcelona be another?
INEOS Britannia Dockwalk
Weather Prognosis:
America's Cup Weather Partner PredictWind has provided a dedicated Race Weather Center offering fans access to detailed daily weather breakdowns, live webcams and historical weather data to daily weather breakdowns written by meteorologists.
Current Forecast Race Day 30:
Forecasts for Wednesday by Arnaud Monges, former America's Cup Team Meteorologist
Wednesday October 16, 2024
In the morning Barcelona has light winds, while a large scale Southerly wind gradient is present further offshore. This Southerly flow is scheduled to reach Barcelona by mid-day/early afternoon. The wind will fill in progressively from the South and we expect 8 to 12 knots from the direction 200° once established, so possible race start delay.
Waves of 1 meter from the South-East at 5-second interval will be driven by the stronger wind further offshore. Waves and wind will not be aligned.
The sky will be partly cloudy today with more sunshine in the afternoon and temperatures up to 24°C.
Course Location:
America's Cup Race Schedule - Races 5 & 6: Wednesday October 16, 2024
- Race 5: Emirates Team New Zealand (Port Startbox entry) vs INEOS Britannia (GBR) (Starboard Startbox Entry) Start: 1410hrs CET
- Race 6: INEOS Britannia (GBR) (Port Startbox entry) vs Emirates Team New Zealand (Starboard Startbox Entry) vs Start: 15:15hrs CET
Virtual Eye
After the racing you can replay the key points, or the whole race using Virtual Eye from ARL This is the tool that Inside Tack are using to demonstrate various points - using the actual tracks of the AC75s.
You can go directly to the Virtual Eye America's Cup coverage by clicking here and click on "Watch Previous" then select the race you wish to view. Virtual Eye is a 3D viewer so you can zoom in, out, around and up and down just like you could in a helicopter.
Crew Lists