Sydney Hobart – Daily Double?

by John Curnow, Editor, Sail-World AUS 27 Dec 2023 18:32 AEDT

The Caprice 40, Chutzpah (Bruce Taylor VIC) climbs the moving mountains of Storm Bay - 2022 Rolex Sydney Hobart © Carlo Borlenghi

Would not have really described myself as a punter per se, especially when it comes to the gee gees, but a calculated guess? Well perhaps. Back in Cutting Grass from before the race started we looked at the ability for the supermaxis to get both Line Honours and the Overall Win under IRC. The daily double, as it were.

andoo Comanche burying their bow - 2023 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - photo © Rolex / Andrea Francolini

The trifecta was not ever really going to be on offer, as you can see from this image of the tracker. They are miles behind Comanche’s record pace of 2017, and not a chance of making it up. The runway is now well and truly too short for that, and no amount of JATO rockets is able to fix it. Say no more.

Position of leaders of 2023 Sydney Hobart Race and relative position of record pace from 2017 - photo © Cruising Yacht Club of Australia

If you look at the standings as of the time of writing (1750hrs AEDT 27/12/23) you see the supermaxis and mini maxis now dominate the board. Make no mistake, the mini maxis (URM Group, Moneypenny and former overall winner Alive) have done brilliantly (and one may even get it yet). It is just that Huey has other plans. Both parts of the stable doors are about to be closed, and the storm shutters on top of them, after that.

Will Huey allow a couple of visitors, or shut them all out? It is all about the corner (Tasman Island) and Storm Bay... Lest we forget too that the River Derwent likes to think of itself as the final arbiter in these matters. Final start line of any and every Hobart is the Iron Pot, after all. Always good to be tied up to the quay at Constitution Dock with a time locked away, for nearly anything can happen out on the track.

Standings for overall win in the 2023 Sydney Hobart Race on 27/12/23 - photo © Cruising Yacht Club of Australia

The wind models are now showing what might be considered the Sydney Hobart of Olde, which is kind of befitting when you consider Horbations like to use the term for their city - Ye Olde Hobart Town… There is a small window for the supermaxis to get in before tomorrow morning, and they have around 160nm DTG at the time of writing. For sure they are doing 20 knots SOG right now, but that too is about to change.

With many thanks to our friends at PredictWind (cheers to Jon and Nick), the picture looks a little, well, challenging, as this sequence shows. It is pretty clear, and you almost don’t need commentary to follow it, but Storm Bay will live up to its name. The East Coast of Tassie will have more sheep in the paddocks than the whole of Australia and New Zealand combined, and dogs won’t need to be tethered by chain, you’ll have to get some left over ECsix standing rigging from Future Fibres in order to ensure pooch is to be found later on in exactly the same place as you left it.

Short version - magenta = soft, yellow = fresh, orange = frightening, burgundy = lumpy (code for hellish).

If you are in Hobart, go to the ATM and get out fistfuls of cash. Anyone arriving after the maxis is bound to be selling off really cool ocean gear at bargain prices!!!