Sydney Hobart – Inside running
by John Curnow, Editor, Sail-World AUS 27 Dec 2022 12:16 AEDT
Hamilton Island Wild Oats - Start of the 2022 Sydney Hobart race © Bow Caddy Media
Exactly at 1000hrs this morning, Tony, one of our radio team wrote to me and asked, “Do you think there is any advantage to Hamilton Island Wild Oats being closer to the coast?” This was an incredibly astute observation, made all the more so by the fact that he is not a sailor.
My reply was, “Not presently. My concern is that I feel the breeze is crumping. Stan Honey is on board. He is a genius. Please stay glued to it and keep asking questions. A lot to play for here.”
You see a while ago I saw the presence of a hook off Flinders Island, which would affect the big four the most. It is what made me write the line about the winner is most likely to be in the form of one of the newer squaws from inside the village of the TPs. Something I still feel is likely to play out. Anyway, this buckle in the isobars, coupled with learning that the system on West Coast of Tasmania was now showing Nor’westers for all of December 27 and well into December 28, along with reviewing Dale and Crosbie Lorimer’s video on VMG Running https://www.sail-world.com/news/257182 set a refinement of a total picture.
Remember the biggest rule is out early, and in late, and as I write this, Comanche’s record path is actually the most Westerly of the big four out there racing now. andoo Comanche is now 60nm astern of herself from 2017, with 238nm to travel in some ten hours, so that is effectively 24 knots, on average. You get the picture… Mathematically possible, statistically unlikely, and in reality, completely improbable.
It does leave the Line Honours thing to deal with, and she has 12nm over Oats and LC, with 16 to Black Jack, but still managing to hold a decent clip. For now. Interestingly, the remainder of the fleet
Gweilo leads overall, presently, Pacman still holds the two-handed mantle and it will be a big day out there for all crews. Hopefully an extra bit of provisioning went on board the faster boats, so as to avoid having to eat cardboard.
Do hope you have also enjoyed the first of the daily updates live on the sail-world.com homepage, which will be on every day at 1205hrs. Well done and thank you to Crosbie, Dale, Jake and Wendy.
Stay safe, thanks for tuning into Sail-World.com, and all the best for 2023.