Please select your home edition
Edition
RS Sailing 2021 - LEADERBOARD

New global forecasts of marine heatwaves foretell ecological and economic impacts

by NOAA Fisheries 24 Apr 2022 16:03 PDT
The latest global marine heatwave forecast showing the predicted probability of marine heatwaves for September 2022. Forecasts are experimental guidance, providing insight from the latest climate models © NOAA Fisheries

Researchers have developed global forecasts that can provide up to a year's advance notice of marine heatwaves, sudden and pronounced increases in ocean temperatures that can dramatically affect ocean ecosystems.

The forecasts described in the journal Nature could help fishing fleets, ocean managers, and coastal communities anticipate the effects of marine heatwaves. One such heatwave, known as "the Blob," emerged about 2013 in the northeast Pacific Ocean and persisted through 2016. It led to shifting fish stocks, harmful algal blooms, entanglements of endangered humpback whales, and thousands of starving sea lion pups washing up on beaches.

"We have seen marine heatwaves cause sudden and pronounced changes in ocean ecosystems around the world, and forecasts can help us anticipate what may be coming," said lead author Michael Jacox, a research scientist at NOAA Fisheries' Southwest Fisheries Science Center in Monterey, California, and NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado.

Marine heatwave forecasts will be available online through NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory. The researchers called the forecasts a "key advance toward improved climate adaptation and resilience for marine-dependent communities around the globe."

The forecasts leverage global climate models to predict the likely emergence of new marine heatwaves. "This is a really exciting way to use existing modeling tools in a much-needed new application," Jacox said.

Reducing ecological and economic impacts

Impacts of marine heatwaves have been documented in ecosystems around the world, particularly in the past decade. These include:

  • Fish and shellfish declines that caused global fishery losses of hundreds of millions of dollars
  • Shifting distributions of marine species that increased human-wildlife conflict and disputes about fishing rights
  • Extremely warm waters that have caused bleaching and mass mortalities of corals

On the U.S. West Coast, marine heatwaves gained notoriety following the Blob, which rattled the California Current Ecosystem starting in 2014. That marine heatwave led to an ecological cascade in which whales' prey was concentrated unusually close to shore, and a severe bloom of toxic algae along the coast delayed opening of the valuable Dungeness crab fishery. Humpback whales moved closer to shore to feed in some of the same waters targeted by the crab fishery. As fishermen tried to make up for lost time after the delay by deploying additional crab traps, whales became entangled in record numbers in the lines attached to crab traps. Recent research has also connected marine heatwaves along the West Coast to a northward shift in California market squid, which have long supported one of California's largest commercial fisheries.

NOAA Fisheries scientists have since developed a Marine Heatwave Tracker that monitors the North Pacific Ocean for signs of marine heatwaves. The forecasts go a step further to anticipate where marine heatwaves are likely to emerge in coming months, and how long they are expected to persist.

"Extreme events in concert with increasing global temperatures can serve as a catalyst for ecosystem change and reorganization," said Elliott Hazen, a research ecologist at the Southwest Fisheries Science Center and coauthor of the research. "While marine heatwaves can have some unanticipated effects, knowing what's coming allows for a more precautionary approach to lessen the impact on both fisheries and protected species. Understanding the ocean is the first step towards forecasting ecological changes and incorporating that foresight into decision-making."

El Niño-Southern Oscillation boosts forecast accuracy

The forecasts are most accurate during periods influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a well-known climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean. In fact, El Niño (the warm phase of the oscillation) could be considered the "world's most prominent marine heatwave," Jacox said. It demonstrates that the heatwaves themselves are not new.

The forecasts cannot predict marine heatwaves as far in advance in regions such as the Mediterranean Sea, or off the U.S. East Coast. The atmosphere and ocean fluctuate more rapidly in these areas. The forecasts provide the greatest foresight in areas with known ocean-climate patterns such as the Indo-Pacific region north of Australia, the California Current System, and the northern Brazil Current.

The scientists noted that managers of fisheries and other marine life must weigh their reaction to predicted marine heatwaves based on the potential consequences. For example, they would need to weigh the economic costs of limiting fisheries ahead of a marine heatwave against the risk of inadvertently entangling endangered whales or sea turtles.

"We're talking about the difference between making informed choices and reacting to changes as they impact ecosystems," Hazen said. "That is always going to be a balance, but now it is a much more informed one.

The research is a collaboration between scientists at:

  • NOAA Fisheries' Southwest Fisheries Science Center
  • NOAA Research's Physical Sciences Laboratory
  • University of Miami
  • University of California - Santa Cruz

The work was supported by funding from the NOAA Climate Program Office's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections program and the NOAA Fisheries' Office of Science and Technology.

Related Articles

Armstrong Foils Demo Days return for 2025
Test the latest gear, get expert advice, and ride with the pros. Armstrong Foils is proud to announce the return of Armstrong Demo Days for 2025. Test the latest gear, get expert advice, and ride with the pros. Posted today at 5:41 am
International 5o5 Euro Cup Leg 2 at Lake Garda
Stunning scenery, fresh water and great Ora breezes Between May 29th and 31st, 41 505's from 10 countries arrived in the small town of Riva at the Northern end of Lake Garda in Italy for leg 2 of the 2025 505 Euro Cup series. Posted today at 5:29 am
49er, 49erFX and Nacra 17 Europeans Day 1
Austrians Prettner and Flachberger tip into early lead Keanu Prettner with Jakob Flachberger (AUT) were locked in a light air duel with defending European Champions Hernan Umpiere with Fernando Diz (URU). The two teams were tipped by their fellow competitors as the ones to watch in light winds and delivered. Posted on 3 Jun
New Dynamic Range of T-Shirts and Shorts
Just the ticket at sea and on shore Packing for a weekend away on the water and having fun onshore has never been easier, thanks to the new range of Dynamic shorts and t-shirts from Henri-Lloyd. Posted on 3 Jun
Galicia 52 Super Series Royal Cup Day 1
Top level consistency gives 2024 champions a strong start in Baiona The 2024 overall circuit champions, Doug DeVos' American Magic Quantum Racing, lead the GALICIA 52 SUPER SERIES ROYAL CUP after two good races on the beautiful but challenging race area off Baiona on the NW corner. Posted on 3 Jun
Getting excited for the Van Isle 360
Quoting a famous line from Pink Floyd's "Time" As I pack for the first half of the 2025 Van Isle 360 International Yacht Race, I find myself thinking about the last time I did this race, a certain Pink Floyd song, and the great adventuring, sailing and time with friends that awaits. Posted on 3 Jun
5.5 Metre titles head to Poland for the first time
Scandinavian Gold Cup and World Championship to be held back to back Over the next 12 days the International 5.5 Metre Class heads to Sopot in Poland for the Scandinavian Gold Cup and World Championship. It is the first time the class has held any of its major events in Poland. Posted on 3 Jun
Robert Burke on HRCS's Dyckman Marina facility
Robert Burke discusses the upcoming closure of HRCS's Dyckman Marina facility Community sailing organizations are a fantastic and affordable way of drawing new sailors into the sport. Unfortunately, the Hudson River Community Sailing is being forced to close one of its two locations in January. Posted on 3 Jun
Mirror dinghy Tuning Guide with Ben McGrane
A detailed guide to maximising speed with Hyde Mirror Sails Continuing the new series of tuning videos from Hyde Sails, One Design Sales Manager Ben McGrane gives a detailed guide to maximising speed with Hyde Mirror Sails. Posted on 3 Jun
Rodkicker 50 - manual rigid vang for larger yachts
Specifically sized for yachts measuring between 50 and 55 feet A rigid vang is designed to enhance sail handling during reefing, preventing the boom from falling into the cockpit or onto the coach roof. Equipped with gas springs, it automatically elevates the boom upon release of the kicking strap. Posted on 3 Jun
Armstrong 728x90 - HA Foil Range - BOTTOMLloyd Stevenson - AC ETNZ 1456x180px BOTTOMPalm Beach Motor Yachts