A downwind dash to Cascais: Weather outlook for The Ocean Race Europe Leg 1

The Ocean Race Europe Leg 1: Day 1 Forecast © TH Meteorology

The Ocean Race Europe Leg 1: Acceleration around Cape Finisterre will provide the strongest winds of the leg, perhaps up to 25kt or more © TH Meteorology

After a light and tricky coastal race off Lorient, the twelve crews competing in the Ocean Race Europe will be putting in final preparations before the start of the first leg. The teams will be looking forward to more than 750 miles of downwind sailing in some very pleasant conditions from Lorient to Cascais.

At start time, a ridge from the Azores High will stretch north-east to the UK to meet another high-pressure system centred over the North Sea. In the Bay of Biscay this results in light, generally north or north-easterly winds. This breeze is likely to be patchy and fickle at first, but slowly strengthening with a consistent signal that the strongest breeze will be out to the west. This means it could be a tricky and slow first few hours of the race, but once they are going the main focus will be sailing fast on starboard gybe to be the first out to the west and the first to take advantage of the stronger wind. Once they have dug into this stronger pressure, the teams will start to look for a good lay line to gybe south to Cape Finisterre, likely sometime early Sunday morning.

As they approach Cape Finisterre the breeze will increase, partially due to acceleration around the cape, but also partly due to a developing low-pressure system over central and southern Spain. This will be the windiest part of the leg and will see them sailing downwind VMG in 25kt or more as they pass between the cape and the traffic separation scheme (TSS).

The shape of the low pressure developing over central Spain is the main point of uncertainty for this leg and will be the determining factor for the fleet's positioning as they race down the Portuguese coast. It is likely that the low centre will be elongated north to south along the coastline, creating an area of very light winds inshore. On the west side of the low, the teams will be able to sail downwind in moderate to fresh northerlies. The crucial decision will be how far west they position themselves to gain from the stronger wind: the further west they are, the more breeze they should see, but the more distance they will sail.

The Ocean Race Europe Leg 1: Monday 0900 UTC: ECMWF left, GFS right. The developing low will produce light winds along the Portuguese coastline. There is still significant uncertainty in the shape it will take and therefore how far offshore the teams will have to position themselves after rounding Cape Finisterre. - photo © TH Meteorology

We should expect the boats to be finishing sometime Monday afternoon, with a straightforward final approach into Cascais. There is a small chance that the final few miles could be very light however, and these fleets have produced some nail biting finishes in the past. It's not over until it's over!

Track the fleet at www.theoceanrace.com/en/the-ocean-race-europe