America's Cup: Test your knowledge against the TAB - how it works and prices calculated
by Cody Benck TAB 12 Feb 2021 01:07 PST
12 February 2021
Luna Rossa and INEOS Team UK- Waitemata Harbour - January 23, 2021 - Prada Cup - 36th America's Cup © Richard Gladwell / Sail-World.com
Fans now have the opportunity to test their America's Cup knowledge against the bookmakers at the TAB and maybe make a return of a few lazy dollars.
As well Yachting New Zealand, as a sports controlling body who permits gambling on their sport, receives a dividend from the TAB based on the turnover against the sport/event. Several New Zealand sports bodies receive a very substantial return going into seven figures each year, which is put back into the development of the sport.
Wagering on the America's Cup has been possible in New Zealand for almost 20 years going back the 2000 and 2003 America's Cups in Auckland. Since then some regulatory provisions have been introduced so that the national sporting bodies benefit.
Even if you are not a serious punter it is very interesting to see the prices and odds offered and how these move around after each day's racing. Since the start of the Prada Cup we've been following these as closely as we can, as the TAB prices are really the only way of checking how the market sees the results and where the various team performances are headed.
To check the latest prices and options for the Prada Cup click here
Here's how the TAB have seen the America's Cup Regattas unfold - and the changes in prices since INEOS Team UK had a disastrous America's Cup World Series which saw them paying $41 for each $1 of investment, for the Brits to win the America's Cup. That price dropped considerably when INEOS Team UK was first qualifier for the Prada Cup Final.
In the America's Cup Final sailing fans can bet on each or all of five outcomes:
- Outright winner
- Correct score in the best of 13 series
- Individual race winner for every race: both pre race and live.
- Individual markets specific to each race, eg. team to cross the start line first, number of lead changes, teams to be leading after each leg, teams to capsize, etc.
These can change race-to-race
Historic look at Team New Zealand’s prices:
- Opened last year at $1.40. They moved down to $1.25 at one point during the Christmas Cup Regatta after dominating Luna Rossa on day 1, and then moved back out to $1.37 when that regatta finished after losing to American Magic and showing they were beatable to the market.
- Ever since the Prada Cup began on January 15 2021, their price has been drifting out. The market has adjusted after having a look at the other teams - particularly the dramatic improvement around Team UK - which has forced their price in. As Team UK firmed, Team NZ drifted to the point where they are now $1.70. While the rumours around Team New Zealand and their new foils have been encouraging, all the interest has been for the challengers as they showcased their boats and skills in the Prada Cup, while Team New Zealand have been practicing by themselves away from public scrutiny for the most part.
Example of Price Moves: Team UK improving vs American Magic worsening.
- A industry classic example of how things can change is the comparison of the prices between American Magic & Team UK. Team UK opened at $10 to win the America’s Cup, which moved to $41 after a disastrous Christmas Cup campaign. As news dripped in around their improvement, they slowly firmed to $12, before a dominant display on the opening day of the Prada Cup saw them slashed to just $4. Having qualified automatically for the Prada Cup final they then shortened even more to $2.70.
- American Magic however, opened at $6, which firmed to $4 after a promising Christmas Cup Regatta. This then moved out to $8 as they struggled in the early stages of the America’s Cup, before the capsize and near sinking saw their price plummet to $31. As their boat rebuild took place and things appeared better than the team first anticipated, punters' confidence in the miracle increased and their price got all the way back into $8 before the semi final vs Luna Rossa began.
Looking Forward:
Historically, as obvious as it seems, the fastest boat usually wins the America’s Cup, regardless of tactics. The first race of the America’s Cup final will therefore be crucial. Punters can expect some dramatic price changes early on in the series as we finally see how Team New Zealand stack up against the challenger when it really matters.
If you think you know who has the better boat, the smart play would be to get your bets on before this is shown on day 1 of the America’s Cup final.
Race conditions are also a crucial price mover. Team New Zealand will look to have a very versatile boat across all wind ranges. Luna Rossa prefers the light winds, Team UK the strong winds. Depending on who makes it through to the final, you can expect race winner prices to vary based on the conditions and how they suit each boat.
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To check the latest prices and options for the Prada Cup click here