Please select your home edition
Edition
SW newsletters (top)




Collinson FX: July 9, 2020 - Plummeting mortality rates, calms the fear

by Collinson FX 9 Jul 04:57 PDT 9 July 2020
Club Marine Winter Series - Waitemata Harbour - June 27, 2020 © Richard Gladwell / Sail-World.com

Collinson FX: July 9, 2020 - Plummeting mortality rates, calms the fear

US Coronavirus blew through 3 million infections and worry certain segments of the market. European markets lost ground, worried about the fallout on the global economy and the threat to the re-opening. The US completed their formal withdrawal from the WHO, while the WHO warned that the virus may be an airborne transmission, contradicting previous advice. The IMF sent out a warning that global debt may need re-structuring, as global deficit and debt surges, signalling where the origin of the next economic crises? The US Dollar was softer, with the EUR trading 1.1330, while the GBP broke back above 1.2600!

The China situation is simmering, as their aggressive muscle-flexing in the region, attracts a more unified response. The US, UK , Australia and other European nations look set to stand up with various sanctions on China, to deter their behaviour. This is where Geo-Political tensions are on the rise and could easily spill into the trading markets, disrupting the supply chain. The flagging reserve allowed the commodity currencies to post further gains, with the AUD trading 0.6975, while the NZD pushed up above 0.6560.

The pandemic remains the focus of markets and the sheer numbers are disturbing, but plummeting mortality rates, calms the fear. The real concern is trade and perhaps the mounting global deficits and debt, although the pressure remains low, while interest rates are held at historical lows.

Collinson FX: July 8, 2020 - Economy suffers the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression

Surging global equity markets took a breather overnight, as consideration was given to the virus outbreaks in the Southern States of the USA and a flare up in Melbourne. The viral out-breaks are starting to impact the economies, as the authorities start to re-impose restrictions, as seen in Melbourne. Melbourne has seen a big flare up and has since put the Melbourne Metro area into another 6 week lockdown. The economic impact could be dramatic, for already fragile small business?

The GBP continued to post gains, trading 1.2550, while the EUR fell below 1.1300, following a less than impressive German Industrial Production number. The RBA left rates unchanged and warned of an uncertain future, as the economy is suffering the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression. The AUD was slightly softer, trading 0.6950, while the NZD clings to 0.6550. NZ Business Confidence was in the doldrums, contracting minus 63, but was a slight improvement on the devastatingly low number the previous month. Dairy prices continue to hold up reasonably well, which is a tenuous life-line, but these commodity currencies remain vulnerable.

The Chinese Geo-Political actions may well translate into global reactions which will impact the existing global supply chain. This would have a dramatic effect on commodity currencies.

Collinson FX: July 7, 2020 - NASQAQ hitting new record highs

Global markets surged to welcome the new week, despite large increases in the spread of the coronavirus, in the Southern US States. Chinese stock markets rallied over 5%, while Europe followed the trend, with economic data confirming strong results, as global economies reopen. The US followed suit, with the tech-heavy NASQAQ hitting new record highs, following last weeks massive gains and historically high labour market numbers. The US Non-Manufacturing PMI spiked up to 57.1, confirming the ‘V-shaped’ recovery. The Dollar continued to ease, with the EUR regaining 1.1300, while the GBP approaches 1.2500.

The trade exposed commodity currencies were also boosted by the strong gains in China, pushing the AUD up to 0.6970, while the NZD hit 0.6550. The local markets await the important RBA decision, although no rate moves are expected, the commentary and intentions remain an important market indicator. Australian job advertisements jumped 42%, reflecting the stronger economy and tighter labour market, due to attractive welfare support payments.

The commodity currencies are currently beneficiaries of the easing reserve, as market confidence surges, but remain vulnerable to the Chinese Geo-Political aggression and the global consequences.

Catch the new look Collinson FX website at www.collinsonco.com

Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |

Related Articles

Collinson FX: Sept 18 - NZ in deep recession
NZ GDP data contracted 12.2% for the quarter, better than expected but confirming a deep recession. The Fed also assured markets that interest rates would remain at historical low levels, for years to come, encouraging investors. NZ GDP data contracted 12.2% for the quarter, better than expected but confirming a deep recession. Posted on 18 Sep
Collinson FX: Sept 4 - US markets blow out
Australian trade data revealed a sharp increase in imports, accentuating a trade imbalance US Equity markets experienced a ‘blowout correction' overnight, lead by a crash in ‘stay-at-home' tech shares. This may a bit of a flash in the pan or, if extended, may become a significant market correction. Posted on 4 Sep
Collinson FX: August 20 - China US election issue
The AUD fell back below 0.7200, while the NZD traded 0.6570, both being impacted by lock downs Maersk, the largest shipping company in the world, reported much better than expected earnings. This is a great sign for global trade, as the economic recovery progresses forward. Posted on 20 Aug
Collinson FX: August 5 - Global equities climb
Australian downturn not as bad as expected, but Victorian lockdown has a ‘major impact' AUD trading up to 0.7150, while the NZD tests 0.6600 on the downside. RBA Governor said that the economic downturn was not as severe as originally feared, but warned the Victorian lockdown was having a ‘major impact'. Posted on 5 Aug
Collinson FX: July 31 - US GDP drops like a rock
Pandemic impact on global economies is dramatic and none more so, than growth numbers and inflation. The pandemic is a big threat to economic re-opening and progress. The impact on global economies is dramatic and none more so, than growth numbers and inflation. US GDP contracted a shocking 32.9% for the June Quarter! Posted on 31 Jul
Collinson FX: July 22 - EUR agrees 7 year budget
EU passed a massive bailout/stimulus package, after a record five day meeting The EU passed a massive bailout/stimulus package, after a record five day meeting and heavily contested negotiations. The EU agreed to a EUR$750 Billion bailout, which is a heady mix of grants and loans to members heavily impacted by the pandemic. Posted on 22 Jul
Collinson FX: June 30 - Markets shrug off numbers
The AUD trades around 0.6850, while the NZD attempt to hold 0.6400, in the face of a rising reserve. The economic data is coming off record lows, reflecting the various re-opening of economies, across the world. NZ and Australian infection levels re-emerged, contradicted the narrative of ‘defeating the virus' Posted on 30 Jun
Collinson FX: June 24 - Turnaround in Australia
NASDAQ surged to new record highs, boosted by stronger PMI data in Europe, Australia and the USA. The NASDAQ surged to new record highs, boosted by stronger PMI data in Europe, Australia and the USA. The Dollar continued to drift lower, with the EUR rising to 1.1300, while the GBP broke back above 1.2500. Posted on 24 Jun
Collinson FX: June 16 - Chinese spike starts scare
Chinese cases spiked up and fears over a second wave swept Asian markets, which flowed through to EU NZ and Australia have achieved ‘control and containment' of the virus, but they remain vulnerable to fears over a ‘second wave', while exposed to China trade repercussions. Posted on 16 Jun
MBW newsletters (top)