Please select your home edition
Edition
SW newsletters (top)




Collinson FX:October 9, 2019 - Brinkmanship begins as trade talks start

by Collinson FX 9 Oct 04:44 PDT 2 October 2019
Club Marine Insurance Wednesday Series - RNZYS - October 9, 2019 © Richard Gladwell

Collinson FX: October 9, 2019 - Surplus doesn't save Kiwi

US/China trade talks are scheduled to resume Thursday and the brinksmanship has begun. China has called on the US to remove punishing sanctions and have tried to limit the scope of negotiations. The US has hinted at severe repercussions, if the Chinese are not earnest in their negotiations. The latest US threats revolve around capital investment, with restrictions on US investment in Chinese companies and restricting Chinese access to US capital markets. The optics are not good!

The Political war between President Trump and the Democrats have emboldened the Chinese and weakened the Presidents hand. The NFIB Small Business Optimism reported gains as the economic conditions in the US remain strong, while the Chinese economy struggles. The EUR fell back to 1.0925, while the GBP crashed back to 1.2200, as a Brexit deal becomes less likely, while the No-Deal Brexit increases in likelihood.

The US/China trade war has not helped the trade exposed, commodity currencies. The speculation has been overwhelmingly negative and any gains in local currencies, were soon eliminated. The AUD retreated to 0.6725, while the NZD fell below 0.6300 again, despite an unexpected strong fiscal surplus announcement. The NZ Government’s fiscal position continues to improve, due to rising tax revenues, but this is not being used in stimulative infrastructure spending, probably to keep the powder dry for an election in 2020!?

Collinson FX: October 7, 2019 - High expectations from US/China trade talks

Stocks rallied to close the week, after some adequate Jobs numbers out of the USA and growing sentiment surrounding the US/China trade talks recommencing next week. Non-Farm Payrolls met expectations and headline Unemployment numbers continued lower. Unemployment in the US fell back to 3.5% reassuring markets, after weak manufacturing data, during the week. The US and China sit down next week to continue trade negotiations with the prospects positive. The EUR traded back towards 1.1000, while the Yen rallied to 106.80, as the Dollar continued to reflect the market expectations of the Fed.

Commodity currencies are dependent on the US/China trade talks and this week will determine the direction of these trade exposed currencies. Expectations are high of a favourable outcome and this would drive strong support for these currencies. Failure would be a disaster and would be reflected in the currencies. The NZD has recovered to trade above 0.6300, while the AUD pushed up to 0.6770, but the trade negotiations between the US and China are key

Catch the new look Collinson FX website at www.collinsonco.com

Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |

Related Articles

Collinson FX: Nov 11 - Trade deal more certain
US equity markets achieved record highs, as economic confidence flourished on China trade deal US equity markets achieved record highs, as economic confidence flourished, with the prospect of a US/China trade deal became more certain. Posted on 10 Nov
Collinson FX: Oct 31 - US makes rate cut
The US/China trade deal is now scheduled to be finalised and signed in Chile at the APEC conference Commodity currencies were supported and flat, with the AUD trading 0.6870, while the NZD held around 0.6350. Posted on 31 Oct
Collinson FX: Oct 23 - Pound crashes after Vote
The AUD struggled to hold 0.6850, while the NZD surge to 0.6400 is under serious question. The AUD struggled to hold 0.6850, while the NZD surge to 0.6400 is under serious question. Posted on 23 Oct
Collinson FX: Oct 14 - GBP lifts on Brexit rumours
European markets surged after serious progress on both Brexit and the US/China trade war. The AUD looks to regain 0.6800, while the NZD pushed up to 0.6330, still awaiting the final details of the trade agreement. European markets surged after serious progress on both Brexit and the US/China trade war. Posted on 14 Oct
Collinson FX: Oct 1, 2019 - Spooked business in NZ
The NZD fell back to 0.6260, after another deplorable Business Confidence number the NZD fell back to 0.6260, after another deplorable Business Confidence number. NZ Business Confidence slumped to another low, reflecting the business perception of current Government policy. Posted on 1 Oct
Collinson FX: Sept 20, 2019 - NZD and AUD fall
Australian Employment data confirmed a weaker economy, allowing the AUD to crash back below 0.6800 Australian Employment data confirmed a weaker economy, allowing the AUD to crash back below 0.6800, while the NZD sympathetically fell below 0.6300. Posted on 21 Sep
Collinson FX: Sept 13, 2019 - US heads for record
Trade exposed commodity currencies held recent gains - AUD trading 0.6865, NZD tries for .6400 Trump delayed the imposition of $250 Billion in tariffs on Chinese products, from 1st of October to the 15th of October, as an act of goodwill. This boosted US equities and they are now headed to new record highs. Posted on 12 Sep
Collinson FX: Sept 4: Shadow over equity markets
Equity markets remained under the trade war shadow, which was enlarged, after new tariffs imposed Equity markets remained under the trade war shadow, which was enlarged, after both China and the USA began the imposition of a new raft of tariffs. The move put the US share market went sharply into reverse. Posted on 3 Sep
Collinson FX: Aug 30: Confidence data kills Kiwi
The collapse of the NZD was triggered by the appalling Business Confidence number This did little to help the trade exposed currencies, as the stronger Dollar pushed the AUD back to 0.6720, while the NZD plunged to 0.6300! Posted on 30 Aug
MBW newsletters (top)