Please select your home edition
Edition
SW newsletters (top)




Collinson FX:October 9, 2019 - Brinkmanship begins as trade talks start

by Collinson FX 9 Oct 2019 04:44 PDT 2 October 2019
Club Marine Insurance Wednesday Series - RNZYS - October 9, 2019 © Richard Gladwell

Collinson FX: October 9, 2019 - Surplus doesn't save Kiwi

US/China trade talks are scheduled to resume Thursday and the brinksmanship has begun. China has called on the US to remove punishing sanctions and have tried to limit the scope of negotiations. The US has hinted at severe repercussions, if the Chinese are not earnest in their negotiations. The latest US threats revolve around capital investment, with restrictions on US investment in Chinese companies and restricting Chinese access to US capital markets. The optics are not good!

The Political war between President Trump and the Democrats have emboldened the Chinese and weakened the Presidents hand. The NFIB Small Business Optimism reported gains as the economic conditions in the US remain strong, while the Chinese economy struggles. The EUR fell back to 1.0925, while the GBP crashed back to 1.2200, as a Brexit deal becomes less likely, while the No-Deal Brexit increases in likelihood.

The US/China trade war has not helped the trade exposed, commodity currencies. The speculation has been overwhelmingly negative and any gains in local currencies, were soon eliminated. The AUD retreated to 0.6725, while the NZD fell below 0.6300 again, despite an unexpected strong fiscal surplus announcement. The NZ Government’s fiscal position continues to improve, due to rising tax revenues, but this is not being used in stimulative infrastructure spending, probably to keep the powder dry for an election in 2020!?

Collinson FX: October 7, 2019 - High expectations from US/China trade talks

Stocks rallied to close the week, after some adequate Jobs numbers out of the USA and growing sentiment surrounding the US/China trade talks recommencing next week. Non-Farm Payrolls met expectations and headline Unemployment numbers continued lower. Unemployment in the US fell back to 3.5% reassuring markets, after weak manufacturing data, during the week. The US and China sit down next week to continue trade negotiations with the prospects positive. The EUR traded back towards 1.1000, while the Yen rallied to 106.80, as the Dollar continued to reflect the market expectations of the Fed.

Commodity currencies are dependent on the US/China trade talks and this week will determine the direction of these trade exposed currencies. Expectations are high of a favourable outcome and this would drive strong support for these currencies. Failure would be a disaster and would be reflected in the currencies. The NZD has recovered to trade above 0.6300, while the AUD pushed up to 0.6770, but the trade negotiations between the US and China are key

Catch the new look Collinson FX website at www.collinsonco.com

Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |

Related Articles

Collinson FX: July 9 - Sanctions likely on China
The US, UK , Australia and other European nations look set to stand up to China The China situation is simmering, as their aggressive muscle-flexing in the region, attracts a more unified response. The US, UK , Australia and other European nations look set to stand up with various sanctions on China, to deter their behaviour. Posted today at 11:58 am
Collinson FX: June 30 - Markets shrug off numbers
The AUD trades around 0.6850, while the NZD attempt to hold 0.6400, in the face of a rising reserve. The economic data is coming off record lows, reflecting the various re-opening of economies, across the world. NZ and Australian infection levels re-emerged, contradicted the narrative of ‘defeating the virus' Posted on 30 Jun
Collinson FX: June 24 - Turnaround in Australia
NASDAQ surged to new record highs, boosted by stronger PMI data in Europe, Australia and the USA. The NASDAQ surged to new record highs, boosted by stronger PMI data in Europe, Australia and the USA. The Dollar continued to drift lower, with the EUR rising to 1.1300, while the GBP broke back above 1.2500. Posted on 24 Jun
Collinson FX: June 16 - Chinese spike starts scare
Chinese cases spiked up and fears over a second wave swept Asian markets, which flowed through to EU NZ and Australia have achieved ‘control and containment' of the virus, but they remain vulnerable to fears over a ‘second wave', while exposed to China trade repercussions. Posted on 16 Jun
Collinson FX: June 11 - Riots distract from China
The NZD spiked to 0.6570, following the Fed's announcement, while the AUD rallied strongly to 0.7050 Markets are caught in a short term economic euphoria, with the re-opening of global economies, but significant risks remain. Posted on 11 Jun
Collinson FX: May 29 - Massive Bull run underway
Markets have been on a massive bull run, ignoring the Chinese threat to global trade Markets have been on a massive bull run, ignoring the Chinese threat to global trade, reinforcing the prospect of a ‘V' shaped recovery. Global economic data has been so historically bad, it can only get better, supporting market moves. Posted on 30 May
Collinson FX: May 22 - Economies open successfully
The NZD fell back to 0.6115, while the AUD slipped to 0.6560, damaged by extremely weak flash PMI Markets drifted lower overnight, after posting record gains during a strong week supported by ‘vaccine progress' and Central Bank support. Economies across the world are re-opening successfully, without any major outbreaks in the coronavirus. Posted on 22 May
Collinson FX: May 5 - Gearing up or down?
The relative success of the lock-downs, will determine how quickly these economies re-open The AUD has fallen back to 0.6420, while the NZD holds 0.6030, as nervous markets watch the transition of the economies through the lock-down gears. Posted on 5 May
Collinson FX: May 1 - Reality hits Europe states
NZD jumped to 0.6135, as the RBNZ relaxed lending (LVR) ratios The shine came off the market recovery overnight, as reality sets in. The ECB left rates unchanged and announced they were fully prepared to act ‘as long as needed'. Posted on 1 May
Collinson FX: April 27 - Certainty returns
Certainty back in to markets and authorities can now plan the return of economic activity. The pandemic rolls on, but it appears to under control and contained. This allows certainty back in to markets and authorities can now plan the return of economic activity. Posted on 27 Apr
MBW newsletters (top)