Please select your home edition
Edition
SW newsletters (top)




Collinson FX: April 16 2019 - Markets settle

by Collinson FX 15 Apr 2019 13:33 PDT 16 April 2019

Collinson FX: April 16 2019 - Markets settle

Markets settled after a strong week last week. US Banks lead the way in corporate earnings, although Goldman’s revenue missed expectations, giving the markets some pause at the open. Chinese/US trade talks seem to be progressing well and the Fed has adopted a supportive monetary policy ensuring blue skies for equity markets. The US Dollar was steady, with the EUR holding 1.1200, while the GBP regained 1.3100. The Empire State manufacturing numbers showed further gains to this important engine of growth in the US economy.

Australian markets await the release of the RBA minutes, which will give insight into the state of the local market and how the international markets are impacting. The local market is preoccupied by the Federal election, although the minutes will provide a brief distraction. The AUD is trading around 0.7175, while the NZD holds above 0.6750, awaiting important economic data releases globally.

Collinson FX: April 15 2019 - Chinese exports explode

Markets rallied strongly to close the trading week, boosted by strong corporate earnings from the United States, lead by JP Morgan. The Banks love rising interest rates and they have made hay while the sun shines, despite the Fed moving to a more dovish monetary policy. The rhetoric coming from the Fed, ECB and IMF has been negative, with global growth warnings, but progress on the US/China Trade negotiations has boosted confidence. Chinese exports exploded in their latest data release, more than doubling expectations, which is a very positive sign for global commodity demand. This boosted the commodity currencies, with the AUD jumping to 0.7170, while the NZD pushed up to 0.6770.

European markets have been mired in ‘Brexit’ chaos, but agreed to extend the Brexit date until 31st of October, further kicking the can down the road. The impasse will not be broken until British Parliamentarians agree to implement the will of the people. This will require a change in leadership and personnel. The Tories will need to change the Cabinet and PM, or a general election will be necessary to replace all Members of Parliament. The GBP settled around 1.3070, while the EUR pushed towards 1.1300, with the deadline pressure delayed.

The next two weeks are abbreviated due to the Easter holidays, but welcome a plethora of economic data, lead by GDP and CPI numbers. Global growth and international trade developments will likely dominate markets.

Collinson FX: April 12 2019 - Trick or Treaty?

Progress continues on the trade negotiations between the US and China. Treasury Secretary said there would be no arbitrary deadline, but an enforcement mechanism was now in place and this could lead to the biggest change in the economic relationship between the two countries in forty years! This is all good news for global growth sentiment and the Fed and ECB have both pledged to keep the cheap money flowing. The US CPI number was higher than expected, while Chinese CPI was higher and in line with expectations. The Dollar was bolstered by the news, with the EUR falling back to 1.1250, while the Yen moved to 111.60.

Brexit was extended to Halloween Day, which should enable plenty of colourful analogies, but just extends the time scale of this ‘slow motion train crash’. Commodity currencies gain some sustenance from the US/China trade negotiations but the rising reserve had it’s impact on the associated currencies. The AUD fell back to 0.7120, while the NZD drifted to 0.6720, awaiting NZ data including Migration, Manufacturing PMI and Credit Card spending. Local economic data has limited impact on the currency unless it is radically beyond expectations. The global trade environment is far more significant.

he AUD had been on a tear, moving up to 0.7150, but the negative trade news from Europe and the US, has pushed the Dollar higher. The AUD has since retreated to 0.7120, while the NZD fell back to 0.6730, after previously breaking above 0.6750. Trade is the global macro story dominating world markets.

Catch the new look Collinson FX website at www.collinsonco.com

Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |

Related Articles

Collinson FX: Vaccine Rally stalls
Growth will continue to be challenged, as the recent European lock-downs, feed through to the data Growth will continue to be challenged, as the recent European lock-downs, feed through to the economic data. Posted on 18 Nov
Collinson FX: Oct 19 - Election win anticipated
The election victory was anticipated by markets, but the magnitude of the victory was not. Labour won the NZ election in a landslide. The victory was anticipated by markets, but the magnitude of the victory was not. Posted on 19 Oct
Collinson FX: Oct 14 - Drop expected post-Election
NZ House prices surged, due to lack of supply and cheap mortgages. Credit card spending surges NZ House prices surged, due to lack of supply and cheap mortgages, leading to a surge in credit card spending. The local election on Saturday should provide further downward pressures coming to bear. Posted on 14 Oct
Collinson FX: Oct 6 - Oz tax cuts expected sooner
Australia is expected to bring forward tax cuts and other stimulus measures Equities opened the week strongly, after the shock hospitalisation of President Trump, last week and his subsequent recovery Posted on 6 Oct
Collinson FX: Sept 18 - NZ in deep recession
NZ GDP data contracted 12.2% for the quarter, better than expected but confirming a deep recession. The Fed also assured markets that interest rates would remain at historical low levels, for years to come, encouraging investors. NZ GDP data contracted 12.2% for the quarter, better than expected but confirming a deep recession. Posted on 18 Sep
Collinson FX: Sept 4 - US markets blow out
Australian trade data revealed a sharp increase in imports, accentuating a trade imbalance US Equity markets experienced a ‘blowout correction' overnight, lead by a crash in ‘stay-at-home' tech shares. This may a bit of a flash in the pan or, if extended, may become a significant market correction. Posted on 4 Sep
Collinson FX: August 20 - China US election issue
The AUD fell back below 0.7200, while the NZD traded 0.6570, both being impacted by lock downs Maersk, the largest shipping company in the world, reported much better than expected earnings. This is a great sign for global trade, as the economic recovery progresses forward. Posted on 20 Aug
Collinson FX: August 5 - Global equities climb
Australian downturn not as bad as expected, but Victorian lockdown has a ‘major impact' AUD trading up to 0.7150, while the NZD tests 0.6600 on the downside. RBA Governor said that the economic downturn was not as severe as originally feared, but warned the Victorian lockdown was having a ‘major impact'. Posted on 5 Aug
Collinson FX: July 31 - US GDP drops like a rock
Pandemic impact on global economies is dramatic and none more so, than growth numbers and inflation. The pandemic is a big threat to economic re-opening and progress. The impact on global economies is dramatic and none more so, than growth numbers and inflation. US GDP contracted a shocking 32.9% for the June Quarter! Posted on 31 Jul
Collinson FX: July 22 - EUR agrees 7 year budget
EU passed a massive bailout/stimulus package, after a record five day meeting The EU passed a massive bailout/stimulus package, after a record five day meeting and heavily contested negotiations. The EU agreed to a EUR$750 Billion bailout, which is a heady mix of grants and loans to members heavily impacted by the pandemic. Posted on 22 Jul
MBW newsletters (top)