Please select your home edition
Edition
SW newsletters (top)




Collinson FX: Sept 19, 2018 - US/China Trade War impacts NZD

by Collinson FX 19 Sep 2018 06:28 PDT 14 September 2018
Wild Oats XI in Dent Passage heading for the finish - Hamilton Island Race Week - Day 6 © Richard Gladwell

Collinson FX: Sept 19, 2018 - US/China Trade War impacts NZD

US equity markets surged, despite the US/China trade developments, as the tariffs levied were lighter than expected. The US imposed 10% tariffs on $200 Billion on Chinese goods, rising to 25% by years end, while the Chinese response was minimal. The Chinese imposed a 10% tariff on 5,000 US goods in retaliation. Trump tweeted the Chinese plans to politically target Trump supporters with their tariffs (farmers etc) would fail, but reveals the extent of Chinese targeting rand the depth of planning in this trade dispute. The balance of trade means there can be only one winner and this is a battle over timing and dividend.

The Dollar remains soft, with the EUR progressing to 1.1670, while the GBP trades 1.3150. Australian House prices continue to contract, as discussed by the RBA in their last statement, with high debt levels and rising interest rates taking their toll. This remains a substantial threat to the Australian economy, but the easing reserve allowed the AUD to regain 0.7200, while the NZD pushed up to 0.6580. The US/China trade war directly impacts these trade exposed currencies, while NZ Consumer Confidence and Current Account data may impact the currency at the margins, today.

Collinson FX: Sept 18, 2018 - Trade war rhetoric rises

The US/China trade war continued with rhetoric rising. Key Trump financial adviser, Larry Kudlow, reiterated Trump’s dissatisfaction at the progress made, to date. Trump twittered that that the US was in a strong bargaining position, on trade, and failure to deal would result in the counterparty to be ‘Tariffed!’

Equity markets were soft, while the Dollar retreated, as EU CPI was steady around 2% p.a.. The Dollar retreated, with the EUR charging to 1.1680, while the Yen hit 112.00. Commodity currencies reacted to the flagging reserve, with the AUD pushing up to 0.7180, while the NZD traded 0.6580. These trade exposed currencies remain hostage to the China/US trade negotiations, driving uncertainty and vulnerability, awaiting an outcome. A resolution may see a substantial rebound, although continued disagreement undermines their positions, adding to recent susceptibility.

Catch the new look Collinson FX website at www.collinsonco.com

Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site

Related Articles

Collinson FX: Dec 29 - More helicopter money
The helicopter money is coming thick and fast. Markets appreciated the fiscal stimulus The helicopter money is coming thick and fast. Markets appreciated the fiscal stimulus and equities rallied strongly. Posted on 28 Dec 2020
Collinson FX: Dec 3 - Australia on improve
Australian GDP jumped more than expected, 3.3% for the quarter and reduced the annualised contractio Australian GDP jumped more than expected, 3.3% for the quarter and reduced the annualised contraction to 3.8%. Posted on 3 Dec 2020
Collinson FX: Vaccine Rally stalls
Growth will continue to be challenged, as the recent European lock-downs, feed through to the data Growth will continue to be challenged, as the recent European lock-downs, feed through to the economic data. Posted on 18 Nov 2020
Collinson FX: Oct 19 - Election win anticipated
The election victory was anticipated by markets, but the magnitude of the victory was not. Labour won the NZ election in a landslide. The victory was anticipated by markets, but the magnitude of the victory was not. Posted on 19 Oct 2020
Collinson FX: Oct 14 - Drop expected post-Election
NZ House prices surged, due to lack of supply and cheap mortgages. Credit card spending surges NZ House prices surged, due to lack of supply and cheap mortgages, leading to a surge in credit card spending. The local election on Saturday should provide further downward pressures coming to bear. Posted on 14 Oct 2020
Collinson FX: Oct 6 - Oz tax cuts expected sooner
Australia is expected to bring forward tax cuts and other stimulus measures Equities opened the week strongly, after the shock hospitalisation of President Trump, last week and his subsequent recovery Posted on 6 Oct 2020
Collinson FX: Sept 18 - NZ in deep recession
NZ GDP data contracted 12.2% for the quarter, better than expected but confirming a deep recession. The Fed also assured markets that interest rates would remain at historical low levels, for years to come, encouraging investors. NZ GDP data contracted 12.2% for the quarter, better than expected but confirming a deep recession. Posted on 18 Sep 2020
Collinson FX: Sept 4 - US markets blow out
Australian trade data revealed a sharp increase in imports, accentuating a trade imbalance US Equity markets experienced a ‘blowout correction' overnight, lead by a crash in ‘stay-at-home' tech shares. This may a bit of a flash in the pan or, if extended, may become a significant market correction. Posted on 4 Sep 2020
Collinson FX: August 20 - China US election issue
The AUD fell back below 0.7200, while the NZD traded 0.6570, both being impacted by lock downs Maersk, the largest shipping company in the world, reported much better than expected earnings. This is a great sign for global trade, as the economic recovery progresses forward. Posted on 20 Aug 2020
Collinson FX: August 5 - Global equities climb
Australian downturn not as bad as expected, but Victorian lockdown has a ‘major impact' AUD trading up to 0.7150, while the NZD tests 0.6600 on the downside. RBA Governor said that the economic downturn was not as severe as originally feared, but warned the Victorian lockdown was having a ‘major impact'. Posted on 5 Aug 2020
MBW newsletters (top)