Sydney Hobart - Spithill expected to chop 4-5 hours off record
by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz 26 Dec 2017 17:38 PST
27 December 2017
Race Start Wild Oat, crosses ahead of LDV Comanche 2017 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race © Carlo Borlenghi
The supermaxi LDV Comanche, skippered by twice America's Cup winner, Jimmy Spithill is expected to reduce the race record for the Rolex Sydney Hobart by four or five hours according to the Routing Function of Predictwind.com.
The prediction is shared by other sources attached to the race.
Four of the five weather sources used by Predictwind are forecasting a finish between 20.00 - 21.00hrs this evening.
However the race record is far from a done deal as two of the feeds are showing the breeze dropping to just 2kts for the closing few miles - making for a classic Sydney Hobart Race finish, and the record could easily slip away if the boats are becalmed just short of the finish line.
That is exactly what happened when the record was set by Perpetual Loyal when she and the overall trophy winner the Volvo 70 Giacomo (Jim Delegat) docked in Hobart as the remainder of the fleet languished on the final approaches to Hobart.
Perpetual Loyal then set a record that was expected to stand for some time. However ideal conditions this year are expected to create an upset.
All of the Predictwind feeds see the wind lightening at the end of the race - the question that remains is by how much and for how long.
Speaking from Hobart, leading sailing commentator, Rob Mundle told Sky TV that Wild Oats XI was taking time out of LDV Comanche cutting her margin from 20nm to 10nm over the space of a morning. Mundle also reported that the breeze was dropping dramatically in Hobart itself. He was expecting a new breeze to come in but from where and when was uncertain.
Race organisers are reported as expecting up to six boats to finish inside the current record of 1 day and 13 hours. Wild Oats XI should finish second - her first finish in the last three starts. However, if the wind does go light earlier than predicted, then LDV Comanche could have a big fight on her hands as the beamy VLPV is very sticky in light winds, while the narrow beamed Wild Oats XI is a much better performer in the light due to significantly less hull drag.
The racing incident on Sydney harbour between Wild Oats XI and LDV Comanche could also come into play if there is a close finish, with LDV Comanche expected to win if the incident does indeed go to a Hearing. A time penalty of at least five minutes could be levied on Wild Oats XI by the International Jury.
For the latest and updated tracker (identified by SailingIllustrated.com) showing boat positions updated in real time with a wind map click here
One yacht has so far retired from the race which attracted over 100 yachts.
The German entry Rockall broke a rudder at 0900hrs this morning and is expected to be met by a police boat out of Eden. A second yacht Helsal 3 appears to have stood beside the stricken yacht for a time before resuming racing. If so she would be expected to lodge a redress claim on her arrival in Hobart.