Solidaire du Chocolat - Tricky choices will have to be made

by Sail-World.com/Solidaire du Chocolat on 18 Oct 2009 Solidaire du Chocolat. Ten nations will be represented on the start line; France, Ireland, UK, USA, Chile, Australia, Mexico, Spain, Italy and Finland. Forty eight sailors are bound for Mexico.

Figureheads Sophie Davant and Laurent Bignolas were out and about today, mingling with the bustling crowds in the Grand Choc’ village on the quayside in Saint Nazaire.

On Sunday afternoon, both TV personalities will be on board the Malabar, the French navy’s high sea tugboat from where the starting shot will be fired in what Météo France announced as a fine weather day. The start has been put back half an hour to allow a cargo vessel en route for Donges through first. The start is now set for 17h30 !

The first week of the race is likely to be agitated and decisive. Once the Loire estuary is behind them, the fleet will be heading out into the Bay of Biscay which going to start out choppy and then become quite rough. The twenty-four boats will have to position themselves to face a low pressure system and this choice of route is highly likely to determine the strategic options as far as the Caribbean. In Saint Nazaire, the two ambassadors of the Solidaire du Chocolat were out and about today on the bustling quayside.

Once the Loire is in the rear view mirror, there is a low pressure system lying in wait to greet the fleet. Negotiating skills required for the passage over to the Caribbean. There are never the less several routes open to the twenty-four Class 40s. In theory, 24 hours after the firing shot has freed the fleet, there is a clear highway through via the south with the odd access route here and there towards the trade winds of Madeira whereas a very bumpy route is opening up towards the Azores.

On Sunday afternoon, the southern part of a high pressure system of 1 026 hPa will be centred over Cherbourg and give rise to a SE flow of around 12 knots in what are still manageable seas. The start will be made spinnaker high and the Class 40s will be out of the Loire channel rather sharpish with no chance of sighting land for the fortnight ahead. A depression will be kicking in from Newfoundland and deepen as it moves slowly towards Iceland. The situation will shift rapidly as the boats approach the exit of the Bay of Biscay. The more south-west they put in their heading towards the tip of Spain, the worse the weather will become, with the strengthening wind veering SW. Although the teams will be covering a good hundred or so miles overnight from Sunday to Monday, progression will slacken on Monday afternoon. Headwinds, rougher seas, lots of cloud, the result of a cold front, meaning rain and gusts in store.

This translates by shortened sail and prudence for the next twelve hours, if not more, whilst trying to gain distance west to leave these conditions as soon as possible. Squalls of more than 35 knots, wind shifts, strong swell and cross seas. The better prepared boats should come through it without a hitch. Priority will be given to avoiding breakage and getting through the front as soon as possible to pick up the wind changing to WNW.

Choices thereafter get very tricky indeed. One possibility is to make a left turn south along the Portuguese coasts, the other is to simply head south-west, the most direct route to the Caribbean. A fundamental difference is likely to come clear by Wednesday morning. The first option means in the medium term, latching onto a system of NE trades apparently settling in south of Madeira and producing less chaotic seas, lighter winds. The route to Saint Bart’s is longer but more pleasant with offers a little more uncertainty. The system is not looking that stable for the end of the week.

The second option is the direct route to the Azores offers rougher going but may well pay off in the long term. There are lots of low pressure zones around at this time of year north of 45°N which sometimes gives rise to strong SW winds veering NW behind the depression. A rough ride guaranteed therefore but a shorter route with more stable winds. There is one crucial element however. At one point or another, there is no choice but to head down towards the Caribbean, preferably without winding up in the Atlantic High with nothing but erratic wind for company. A perturbation might deepen towards the end of the week SW of the Azores. If this happens, it would be a great boost over to more clement latitudes.

This essential choice after Cape Finisterre is unavoidable. Once you have opted for one particular strategy, you have to stick to your guns. To do otherwise, means shooting yourself in the foot for the first week of the race at least! Steady headwinds (30 knots or more NW for more than a day) and the low pressure around the Azores, with increasingly downwind breezes, although lightening (with a windless zone to cross) gaining south via Madeira, where there are simply high pressure zones and the guarantee of lengthy calm periods in the middle. The fleet is likely to split in two from Tuesday onwards. Although it might look possible therefore to establish a reliable and realistic hierarchy just one week into the race, two-thirds of the Atlantic section remains ahead before Saint Bart’s then 1 500 miles along the Caribbean coast to Progreso ! This first edition of the Solidaire du Chocolat guarantees nothing less than uncertainty and change !

Quotes:
'The start is going to be quite tough. We’re going to be careful ! The wind will be strengthening at the end of the first night but particularly afterwards with the arrival of a second depression which will make the going much tougher. An important make-your-mind-up moment in the race : south or west ? Whatever you decide, you have to assume that decision and try to avoid making too many mistakes.' - Tanguy de La Motte (Initiatives-Novedia)

'There’s no doubt we’re in for a rough ride. We’ll just have to ride it out. The summer low pressure systems are on their way. It’s time we were outta here! There’s going to be a few broken bits and bobs, but I hope that the early part of the race will not be too selective.' - Benoît Parnaudeau (Jardin Bio)

'Monday-Tuesday, we’re going run head on into a front. At the very moment when the party will be in full swing in the Case à Café ! Not a lot we can do except put up with it. Our sails are not that new! We’re going to have to take care of them. It’ll be the second of 28 days in the race. No way are we going to break that early on !' - Yves Ecarlat (Vale Inco-Nouvelle Calédonie)

'This is the sort of race I have dreamed about, sailing alongside yachtsmen I admire. I’m really pleased to be sailing with Patrice Carpentier. A well-known and highly experienced yachtsman. And a journalist as well; I’ve read a lot of what he has written. There’ll be some interesting conversation on board. I’m happy, not worried and don’t feel under any great pressure. I’m confident and feel that everything will go well. As for obtaining a good result, I hope that we will enjoy the race. I’m proud to be an ambassador for my country. I reckon we’re in for a surprising finish. I can’t wait to explain to other Mexicans what this race represents, the possiibloities it offers in terms of open-mindedness and sustainable development.' - Victor Maldonado (Crédit Maritime)