America's Cup outcomes - Dick Enersen

by Dick Enersen on 27 Mar 2009 Long time America's Cup aficionado, and television producer, Dick Enersen (USA) gives his overview of the possible outcomes stemming from the America's Cup Appeal decision, expected any day:

In response to numerous requests, here's the latest on the America's Cup legal process....

Thanks to a friend in the know, I can report that the NY Court of Appeals is back in session and that a decision in re: GGYC vs. SNG & CNEV is imminent. Apparently the court only announces decisions on Tuesdays & Thursdays, at 0900 East Coast time, and those decisions are promulgated on the www.nycourts.gov/ctapps/latdec.htm!Court's_website

There are three possible outcomes, (with my probability speculation in parenthesis):
A. The court finds for GGYC & Ellison ( 60 % )
B. The court finds for SNG & Bertarelli ( 35 % )
C. The 6 judge panel is deadlocked and sends the case back to the lower court for retrial ( 5% )

My probabilities are based not only my wishes, but on my reading of Cory Friedman in 'Scuttlebutt' and my viewing of the Appeals Court hearing, which can still be seen at: http://www.nycourts.gov/ctapps/crtnews.htm (scroll down to 'OTHER IMPORTANT COURT WEBCASTS'), in which I thought Ms. Maloney blew the other guys' doors off.
Moving on, there are several possibilities pursuant to each court decision:

A. (GGYC prevails)
Larry & Ernesto will get together and negotiate a 'regular' multi-challenger Cup regatta, somewhere, probably in new version ACC class boats ( 5%)

A 'Deed of Gift' match will be sailed in giant multi-hulls, about 10 months from date of decision, in a venue of Ernesto's choosing, probably in the southern hemisphere ( 70 % )

Ernesto will surrender the Cup, presumably to GGYC (who will at that point be the Challenger of Record), and Larry will accept challenges for a 'regular' multi-challenger Cup regatta to be sailed somewhere, but not on SF Bay. ( 25 % )

B. (SNG prevails)
Ernesto will be free to do whatever he wants, which, as it now seems, will be to hold a Cup regatta in 90' TP52 type boats, to be sailed in 2011, but maybe not in Valencia, given the current political & economic climate ( see http://www.sailingscuttlebutt.com/news/09/0325c/ ) ( 100% )

C. (Sent back for retrial)
Everyone, including, I am afraid, your correspondent, will lose interest in the Cup and it will become a fond memory. (100 %)

At one level, I would really welcome A, 1, above, but I can't imagine it happening, given Ernesto's petulance. The recent Louis Vuitton event was a wonderful reminder of what Cup can provide in terms of spectacle, sailing action and the gathering of our fraternity, and I miss having that opportunity on a semi-regular basis.

On the other hand, having seen the BOR 'tratamaran' up close and under way, it would be truly spectacular to see a match race series held in these monsters. It would also go a long way toward reviving interest in the Cup, I think, owing to the novelty of the concept and the real possibility of serious injury, or worse. Getting the dial-up wrong at a closing speed of what, 60 knots?, for example, is a horrible event to contemplate.

We shall see.

cheers, de