The Ericssons - where are they going in the Volvo Stealth Play?

by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com on 26 Mar 2009
Yesterday at 1000GMT, Ericsson 3 and 4 went into a Stealth Play, meaning their positions were not revealed to the rest of the fleet or media. Sail-World has kept updating www.iexpedition.org!Expedition and www.predictwind.com!PredictWind to see the wind and track the advance of Puma Racing, which has stayed visible.

Before calling the Stealth Play Ericsson 3 had altered course to starboard and was sailing parallel to the direct route to Rio de Janeiro and about 50nm away from that line.

Winds are expected to lighten in the vicinity of Rio with a stronger breeze to SE of the three leading yachts, and our guess is that Ericsson 3 has moved across in response to this wind.

If the increased wind does advance to the yachts then they would get a much faster ride (even though they are travelling at over 10kts currently)

For several days there has been a prognosis of the three yachts regrouping off to the right of Rio and then sailing a very hot angle to the finish line.

Ericsson 3's move is believed to be to protect this option and corner.

It also remains to be seen if the winds do in fact stay light in the finish area, and the current analysis shows there being no wind for an area from the finish line to a point about 20nm offshore.

Ericsson 3 and 4 can remain in Stealth play mode for 24hours or until they are within 50nm of the finish.

Below The position of Puma racing is updated showing her about 200nm from the finish - the change in course by Ericsson 3 (the most inshore yacht) can be seen, at the end of this track she called the Stealth Play along with Ericsson 4.

Below: PredictWind 12 hours later shows stronger winds offshore and the area of light winds that has developed around the finish area in Rio.

Below: PredictWind for 0400hrs on 27 March or 1500hrs (UTC) on the 26 March 2200hrs showing stronger winds offshore have receded and the light airs area has expanded further offshore.

UPDATE: Ericsson 3 has emerged from the Stealth Play 50nm out from the finish. As predicted she has moved somewhat to the right however as her interim positions have not been disclosed, we cannot see her track hence the position below appears as a straight line. She is now located about 15nm away from the direct route and sailing in winds of 6.7kts. These are easing to east of the direct route. She will have to sail the rest of the leg in a fading breeze which is generally predicted to be about 2kts at the point of the circle at the entrance to Rio harbour - the edge of the circle is 15nm from the finish - so there could be a long slow end to the race.

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The images used in this story have been generated by www.iexpedition.org!Expedition which is a tactical and navigation software application which has been developed by veteran Volvo Ocean Race navigator and Whitbread winner, physicist Nick White, initially for his use in the 2001-2 Volvo Ocean Race with Team News Corp and the Stars & Stripes Americas Cup team.

Since then, www.iexpedition.org!Expedition has been continually refined by a core group of world-renowned navigators and two-time America’s Cup winning navigator Peter Isler has consulted closely in the development of the system. Expedition supports more instrument systems, is easier to use and has the most powerful and useful functions for the racing navigator.

Expedition is now has PredictWind integrated into the application as an option for PredictWind subscribers.

The wind data and prognosis used to produce these images also uses software developed by www.predictwind.com!PredictWind, an application developed by Jon Bilger a top NZ youth and Olympic sailor who turned his hand to wind and weather prediction, and helped Alinghi to their outstanding victories in the last two America's Cups.

Now that same technology is available to the weekend sailing and club racers, the cruising fraternity or professional sailors around the world. Select any region in the world of interest to you and www.predictwind.com!PredictWind will monitor the area for you and provide updated predictions on demand.

PredictWind is a subscription system, with a number of options. While some may feel the wind is free, the ability to get a five day detailed wind forecast for an area of interest creates great peace of mind, allowing forward planning and decision making to be made with some certainty. The time and money saved through being able to work with a high degree of confidence, is more than offset by the relatively small cost of the subscription.

But don't take our word for it, get www.predictwind.com!PredictWind now and have a 30 day trial for free, and see for yourself.