Volvo Ocean Race finish time stretches, food supplies short on Leg 5

by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com on 23 Mar 2009
Predictions made four days ago that the Volvo Ocean race would finish on 24 March UTC, now appear to be rather optimistic as the leaders are beset by light winds which will last all the way to the finish off Rio de Janeiro.

Sail-World has used weather data supplied by www.predictwind.com!PredictWind and course optimisation software from www.iexpedition.com!Expedition to see how the remainder of Leg 5 shapes up, and whether there will be any lead changes. Predictwind is now supplying seven days of data, however this can change as the movement and path of weather systems in the area alter.

Previously the joint application was showing patchy winds initially but with stronger breezes later in the leg. Those winds are not now predicted to arrive and the effect will be a delay of at least 24 hours for the finish, and on the yachts means that food will be severely rationed for a leg that was said by organisers to take 34 days, and is now in its 37th day and looks likely to run to 40 days.

The race continues to be led by Ericsson 3, which was late to start Leg 5 by seven hours after being forced to undertake repairs in Taiwan for two weeks on Leg 4 to Qingdao. She made a bold move on Leg 5 after the first scoring gate (where she was second) and leapt into a 100nm lead which she has defended since.

Our updated prognosis shows the three leading boats concertinaing over the next four days, but the on the water result shows no change in placings.

Using a different weather feed, we do get a different outcome in terms of optimised courses, with a smoother course being shown as heading inshore (west) and with the three leading yachts picking up a 10kt SE breeze, fading to less than 5kts, at times with an ETA at 2100hrs on the 25th March, at the entrance of the harbour at Rio de Janeiro, or four hours earlier.

The discrepancy between the two feeds indicates a lack of certainty about the best course at this stage, and the navigators will be constantly assessing their options, until there is some more certainty.

Also in this Volvo Ocean Race, there is a single stream of weather supplied by race organisers to all boats, and this is the only data they are allowed to use. For our our predictions we are using two different feeds which are going into the same software used on all the competitors.

Below: Actual placings at 0700hrs (NZT this morning, 23 March), or 1900hrs on 22 March UTC. race leader Ericsson 3 is heading towards the Great Circle route - the shortest course to Rio.

Below: Actual placings at 0700hrs (NZT this morning, 23 March), or 1900hrs on 22 March UTC, showing the projected optimum courses, given the current weather data for the five competitors. All stay well east of the Great Circle route. As can be seen the current weather data shows light winds coming opposite directions on both sides of the course.

Below: Projected positions close to the finish line at 1300hrs NZT 26 March or 0100hrs on 26 March UTC. Ericsson 3 is expected to finish an hour or two after this time inside the harbour at Rio de Janeiro

Day by day progress projections

Below: Projected positions at 0700hrs NZT 23 March or 1800hrs on 22 March UTC with wind (colour shading turned on, the lighter the colour, the lighter the wind. Click on the larger image and we see that Ericsson 4 and Puma are in a pacth of light headwinds, while Ericsson has got into a slight stronger breeze but still a headwind.

Below: Projected positions at 0700hrs NZT 24 March or 1800hrs on 23 March UTC. Ericsson 3 has got well way from the other two, however Puma Racing is still caught in the patch of light airs. Ericsson 3 and 4 are reaching in a 10kt breeze.

Below: Projected positions at 0700hrs NZT 25 March or 1800hrs on 24 March UTC. The two Ericssons are still well ahead with Ericsson 4 catching Ericsson 3 slightly. Green Dragon is almost on the same line of latitude as Puma Racing, but well in shore. Puma Racing is now reaching in 20kts winds.

Below: Projected positions at 0700hrs NZT 26 March or 1800hrs on 25 March UTC. Puma Racing has carried the 20kt SE breeze for 24hours and has caught up on the race leaders who are now sailing on an almost dead downwind angle to the finish online in Rio in a 10kt breeze. Ericsson 3 is still around 25nm ahead of Ericsson 4 and about 80nm ahead of Puma Racing, as they close to the finish.

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The images used in this story have been generated by www.iexpedition.org!Expedition which is a tactical and navigation software application which has been developed by veteran Volvo Ocean Race navigator and Whitbread winner, physicist Nick White, initially for his use in the 2001-2 Volvo Ocean Race with Team News Corp and the Stars & Stripes Americas Cup team.

Since then, www.iexpedition.org!Expedition has been continually refined by a core group of world-renowned navigators and two-time America’s Cup winning navigator Peter Isler has consulted closely in the development of the system. Expedition supports more instrument systems, is easier to use and has the most powerful and useful functions for the racing navigator.

Expedition is now has PredictWind integrated into the application as an option for PredictWind subscribers.

The wind data and prognosis used to produce these images also uses software developed by www.predictwind.com!PredictWind, an application developed by Jon Bilger a top NZ youth and Olympic sailor who turned his hand to wind and weather prediction, and helped Alinghi to their outstanding victories in the last two America's Cups.

Now that same technology is available to the weekend sailing and club racers, the cruising fraternity or professional sailors around the world. Select any region in the world of interest to you and www.predictwind.com!PredictWind will monitor the area for you and provide updated predictions on demand.

PredictWind is a subscription system, with a number of options. While some may feel the wind is free, the ability to get a five day detailed wind forecast for an area of interest creates great peace of mind, allowing forward planning and decision making to be made with some certainty. The time and money saved through being able to work with a high degree of confidence, is more than offset by the relatively small cost of the subscription.

But don't take our word for it, get www.predictwind.com!PredictWind now and have a 30 day trial for free, and see for yourself.