Volvo OR - A Doldrums horror movie for Ericsson 3?

by Mark Chisnell on 26 Nov 2008
Volvo Ocean Race - Doldrums Day dawned ugly, but they escaped the noose yesterday, rumbling north more or less unhindered. But 24 hours later it didn’t look like there was going to be a full pardon, and the fleet was journeying to their fate.

Is it going to be another Doldrums horror movie for Anders Lewander and the crew of Ericsson 3? Can the eastern promises of Team Russia be kept?

At 10:00 ZULU, the trade winds were finally fading after a day of higher than expected wind speeds (TWS in the Data Centre). With the wind (TWD in the Data Centre) blowing anywhere from the north to the south, the crews were clawing their way to Cochin every which way they could.

Overnight, the fleet had taken up a three-pronged formation, with the centre still led by the Ericsson twins – 4 ahead of 3. Tucked in behind these two were PUMA and Green Dragon, with Delta Lloyd following about 35 miles or so in their wake. Out on the western flank was Telefonica Blue, with her sistership, Telefoncia Black following her trail – both boats forced further west this morning. Meanwhile a 150 miles to the east, Team Russia were holding fast to the strategy declared by their navigator, Wouter Verbraak in an email a couple of days ago.

We can see the continued compression of the fleet in today’s graph of Distance to Leader (DTL) and Leg Position (LEG_POSN), as the front row led into the easing wind of the Doldrums. The second graph shows how the average True Wind Speed (TWS in the Data Centre) has held up above 10 knots for most of the last 24 hours, only finally dropping early this morning.

Meanwhile, the True Wind Direction (TWD), after backing (rotating anti-clockwise) through yesterday morning, then shifted back to the right (veering, rotating clockwise). That will have cheered them up on both Green Dragon (without their boom) and Telefonica Blue (without their daggerboard) – both of which are struggling to sail narrow True Wind Angles as a result. Telefonica Blue navigator, Simon Fisher, sounded correspondingly more cheerful about their prospects in yesterday afternoon’s email. I’m not sure how he’s feeling this morning, as the Doldrums got ugly, and they found themselves with a southerly – eek.

But PUMA’s navigator, Andrew Cape, declared the cat fit and well again after her mishaps (at least for the light wind conditions) in this audio - admitting they had no excuse to lose. His assessment for the Doldrums was to get in there and get on with it – sail the boat, battle it out on deck, keep going fast, and … not get hung up on silly weather things.

Talking of which … Cape was also a little surprised that the fleet were largely following them into the Doldrums, that none of the young guns had made a big move. But you can almost hear Kenny Read tapping him on the shoulder and pointing out Team Russia – e r… Capey …

So what of Wouter the Routeur, headed east to that West Egg mansion to make something of himself? There’s a great clip of the discussion that proceeded this move – and although it’s more meaningful if you’re au fait with the jargon, we’ve edited it down and you’ll get the point …

Today’s look at the Predicted Routes still shows the east coming good, with Team Russia (yellow line) right behind PUMA (red line) in three days time, chasing them home on the run in. Team Russia will get out to about 78degE, and still have to deal with some really light air, but not for as long as those further west. Leading that group is Torben Grael and Ericsson 4, and their forecast has it staying light through till tomorrow morning, before it begins to freshen from the west – and the forecast is pushing them further eastwards again, getting to 77degE before they get clear.

Meanwhile, it looks like a rough ride for Team Telefonica in the west – that’s going to be hard on Blue – Bouwe Bekking and Simon Fisher – as their missing daggerboard has made it difficult for them to stay east with the bunch. But as Brad Jackson explained in an email from Ericsson 4 this morning - it’s all about the sailing now. The weather routing smoothes and averages progress through a relatively consistent ‘wind field’ – the reality is harshly different, with one boat sitting in a flat calm, while another surges away on the squall line from a cloud.

So perhaps it’s not that surprising that Anders Lewander and Ericsson 3 are already struggling. As Lewander pointed out in yesterday’s audio interview - remember that radar they pulled off the mast just after the start? It didn’t get fixed, and this is when they are going to be really missing it.

The radar helps to tell you where the clouds are, by showing up the rain and moisture inside them. At night, without it, you’re almost completely blind, and that’s going to make it really tough for the boys on Ericsson 3 tonight. And it looked like they were first into the quicksand, sliding down a snake, towards the jaws of the PUMA (really, you have to click on that clip to get it).

By tomorrow morning we should have a much better idea of who’s going to be first out of the Doldrums. Once they get clear, the forecast currently has them reaching or running northwards in a west or south-westerly True Wind Direction, before it shifts into the north, meaning the final miles are upwind. That’s more bad news for Telefonica Blue – and Green Dragon.

But there’s light wind to come as they close on the finish – anyone who gets clear and opens a good lead out of the Doldrums will likely hold it, but those boats that escape together are going to be racing all the way to Cochin.

The TEN ZULU REPORT (so called because it follows the 10:00 GMT fleet position report, and Zulu is the meteorologist's name for GMT).