Cup Statistics favour Emirates Team NZ?

by America's Cup Media on 20 Jun 2007
The America’s Cup Match between Emirates Team New Zealand and Alinghi is a dream come true for fans of the Kiwi team.

Since their team lost to Alinghi by a 5-0 sweep in 2003, the whole country has been waiting for the re-match. But to get there, Emirates Team New Zealand would first need to win the Louis Vuitton Cup.

It hasn’t been an easy journey, although you wouldn’t know it from looking at the 5-0 scoreline in the Louis Vuitton Cup Final where Emirates Team NZ beat Luna Rossa. So now, the penultimate box on the ‘to do’ list has been ticked and the last step taken before achieving their main objective – to take the America’s Cup back to New Zealand.

Emirates Team New Zealand and Alinghi were the two strongest teams throughout the 13 Louis Vuitton Acts held between 2004 and 2007. The Kiwis won two (Acts 2 and 12) and the Swiss a full eight (Acts 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11 and 13). They have also split the three Louis Vuitton America’s Cup Class championships, with Emirates Team New Zealand claiming the title in 2004 and 2006, and Alinghi in 2005.

(SW: During this time ETNZ sailed NZL-82 which had to be rebuilt twice and NZL-81 which had one re-strengthening rebuild. Alinghi used SUI-64 and SUI-75, the former being the 2003 Cup winner. All yachts had to be upgraded to V5 of the ACC Rule after the first year, and ETNZ used the latest generation NZL-84 against the then three year old SUI-75 in Act 12, and the new SUI-91 in Act 13.)

On 23rd June when the teams face each other for the first race of the America’s Cup Match, 356 days will have passed since their last official race on 2nd July 2006, the last day of Valencia Louis Vuitton Act 12. Both teams had scored one win in their ‘best of three’ Final. The winner of the Final match would win Act 12 and the season championship. And in that final match, Emirates Team New Zealand won by a delta of 1:24, taking Act 12, and the season championship.

After the fifth and definitive meeting between the two teams in the America’s Cup Match on 2nd March 2003, they didn’t reunite until nearly 18 months later on 9September 2004. They have since faced each other on ten occasions in match races: 4 victories for Alinghi, 6 for Emirates Team New Zealand. In 2006 they met five times and Alinghi won just once, although it is important to point out that the Kiwis were sailing their first new boat (NZL 84) and the Swiss their old boat (SUI 75).

The numbers for each team overall show Emirates Team New Zealand with an 84% success rate (they have won 90 out of 107 matches) and Alinghi 82% (61 out of 74) – the teams essentially have equal records.

The even score between both is such that each has led (crossed the starting line first) in the start of three matches, whilst in the other four they have simply crossed the line equally. The statistics reflect that the team that has crossed the start line first has tasted victory 67% of the time (2 out of 3) but when Alinghi has reached the first mark ahead they have won the race every time (3 out of 3). The Emirates Team New Zealand record is nearly as impressive – on six of the seven times they reached the windward mark first, they won the match.

The history of matches between the Swiss and the Kiwis indicates that Alinghi is nearly invincible in the 13 to 17 knot wind range. Out of the five races that were held in under 13 knots, Emirates Team New Zealand has won four.

Of the three possible helmsmen that Alinghi might use for the America’s Cup Match, the man who has faced Emirates Team New Zealand the most is Peter Holmberg, who has won 2 and lost 5 of the matches. Ed Baird has experienced both a victory and a defeat. Jochen Schuemann has only faced them once and he did well, winning that match. Dean Barker has always been at the helm of the New Zealand boat.

Since the creation of the Louis Vuitton Cup as a challenger selection series for the America’s Cup in 1983, the winner of the Louis Vuitton Cup has beaten the Defender on 4 out of 6 occasions. Last time, Alinghi was one of them.

Now the information and statistics are available the time has come to ask the questions. Who will be Alinghi’s helmsman in the America’s Cup Match? What boat will they use, SUI 91 or SUI 100? Up until now they have only used SUI 91, and only once at that, during the fleet racing in Valencia Louis Vuitton Act 13 when the Swiss won four of the seven races. Many observers are saying the Swiss boats are fast, perhaps too fast for the Kiwi crew. On the other hand, the Emirates Team New Zealand squad is thought to be battle-hardened and a bit smoother. Is either assertion true? If so, which is more important? The answer will only come on June 23. Until then, it’s nothing more than idle speculation. In four days time we will know.

Javier Sobrino/AB