Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 6 - Oz dazzled by election/budget

by Collinson FX on 6 May 2016

The Kitchen Maker (AUS) about to gybe - Day 4 - ANZAC 18fters - April 2016 Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 6 - Oz dazzled by Click here to find out how to get Collinson FX's free iPhone app

May 6 - Equities turned softer in the US, after rallies across Europe, as Oil prices turned south and local economic data failed to impress. The Challenger Jobs reported further layoffs in the US employment markets while Durable Goods Orders were static. Factory Orders did turn positive and the ISM Non-Manufacturing data posted some gains. This was not enough to bolster equities but the Dollar did show some signs of recovery.

Fed members were out beating the drum for interest rate rises, citing a global recovery, allowing projected rate rises. The EUR slipped to 1.1400, while the GBP drifted to 1.4470 and the JPY pushed up to 107.20. Australian trade data improved, as did Retail Sales, although New Home Sales continued to contract.

The AUD fell back to 0.7450, with local markets consumed by the budget and the coming election campaign, while the RBA takes the opportunity to hit the AUD. The NZD fell back below 0.6900 and may face further downward pressure from a rising reserve until reality forces Fed inaction.

Smeg (AUS) - Day 4 - ANZAC 18fters - April 2016 © Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 4 - Surprise from RBA

May 4 - The big news in local markets was the RBA decision, followed by the pre-election Budget. The RBA caught the markets by surprise, cutting the rate by 0.25%, to 1.75%. This was not unexpected, but with the Bank of Japan and RBNZ, resisting the urge to act was anticipated.

The AUD was slammed hard, falling from 0.7700, to trade below 0.7500! The Australian economy, has been travelling relatively well, but last weeks inflation number forced action. Inflation came in well below expectations, 1.4% from 1.9%, allowing plenty of room for cuts. The inflation number, more importantly, telegraphed weaker growth triggering monetary action.

On the fiscal side, the budget was predictably safe considering the upcoming election, failing to take any substantial action to combat the bloated deficit and debt. The big moves in the AUD, dragged the Trans-Tasman cousin lower, after rallying to highs above 0.7000.

The currency tests 0.6900 on the downside despite steady Dairy prices. Markets now await the local employment data. Equities were weaker globally, while the GBP dropped to 1.4550, after weak Manufacturing PMI data. Central Bank activity and commentary remains the major influence on global monetary policy and currencies. Fiscal ineptitude has forced Central Bank largesse and economic data reflects this.

Peroni (AUS) - Race 2 - Day 4 - ANZAC 18fters - April 2016 © Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 3 - Kiwi gets good support
May 3 - Equities rallied to open May, contradicting the age old adage, 'Sell in May, go away!'. ISM Manufacturing data in the US was softer, following the Chinese lead, in line with expectations. The Dollar did not find any support, with the EUR hitting 1.1500, while the JPY traded 106.50!

Commodity currencies also found some heart, reflecting the weakness in the reserve, with the NZD testing 0.7000. The KIWI has found substantial support, since the RBNZ decided to resist the temptation to cut rates! The RBA has its turn and resist it may!?

There is a possibility that the RBA will leave rates unchanged, but after the examples of the Bank of Japan and the RBNZ, they may take the plunge?! Time will tell!

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