Collinson FX Market Commentary- Feb 7 - Greek negotiations jitter

by Collinson FX on 9 Feb 2015 Collinson FX market Commentary: February 7, 2015

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Feb 7 - US Equities closed lower to end a volatile week of trading. Non-Farm Payrolls added 257,000 jobs, better than expected, but Unemployment rose to 5.7%. Participation rates are rising and the number of people no longer looking for work is at record levels. European markets are still nervous, while Greek Debt negotiations continue, with warnings from the Germans.

German Industrial Production was flat and this did nothing to support the recent reversal in the Dollar. The EUR reversal saw the currency pull back to 1.1310, while the GBP slipped back to 1.5250. The USD rebound was across the board and was reflected in the commodity currencies. The AUDUSD dropped below 0.7770, while the NZD slipped below 0.7340.

The coming week will focus on Global Economic data releases with a watchful eye on the Greek/ECB/IMF debt renegotiation. The NZD currently trades 0.6460 and 0.4800 against the EUR and GBP. despite the genitive shift in the NZD generally the NZDJPY cross has bucked the trend to regained some ground, trading 87.10 this morning.

Collinson FX market Commentary: February 6, 2015
Feb 6 - Equities surged overnight after the dramatic falls of January. Oil rebounded back over $50, giving some relief to energy companies, while stimulating input and cost of living. German Factory order jumped 4.2% and Retail Sales continued to improve, reflecting the improvement in disposable income from cheap energy and low interest rates.

The EUR powered through 1.1500, while the GBP broke above 1.5300, with the Bank of England leaving rates unchanged. The US Trade deficit surged, reflecting the impact of the rising Dollar, on trade exposed sectors. Confidence from Europe spread to US markets with Employment on the steady road to recovery.

Commodity currencies consolidated gains, with the AUD holding above 0.7800, while the NZD pushed back above 0.7400. February has been in recovery mode from a damaging start to the year but vulnerabilities remain with a fragile EU.

Collinson FX market Commentary: February 5, 2015

Feb 5 - Equity markets were mixed overnight after some volitile trading days. Composite PMI data from Europe was positive and Retail Sales improved by 2.8%. This boosted the flagging currency, trading above 1.1400, while the GBP tested 1.5200 on the upside.In the US, the ADP Jobs report came in below expectations, but still expanding at a healthy rate. Commodity currencies are staging a recovery after the negative blows landed by the associated Central Banks. The AUDUSD traded 0.7750, while the KIWI pushed to 0.7360, looking much stronger and still insulated by healthy interest rate differentials. Central Bank activity remains the major driver of markets and remain loose to combat weak economic data. The NZD currently trades 0.6442 and 0.4835 against the EUR and GBP, with the NZDJPY cross holding 86.20

Feb 4 - News of a Greek proposal to swap its debt into growth-linked bonds began to leak yesterday morning in our session. Even though there are questions marks about the viability of such a deal, the constructive tone taken by Greek leaders (relative to last Friday) supported risk assets.

The EUR was a big winner from this and US data disappointment, briefly regaining 1.1500. Commodities booked gains across the board in overnight trading, with Oil prices booking the biggest single day gains in over 6 months to regain $50 a barrel.

The Global Dairy Trade price index rose by 9.4% in last night’s auction, but still falls short of levels needed to fulfill the $4.70kg/MS forecast by Fonterra for the 2014/15 season. As well as these factors the RBA also announced a decrease in OCR yesterday, cutting rates 25bps to 2.25%.

This triggered a massive shift in both the NZD and AUD both falling over 100pts immediately after the announcement, before retracing all losses overnight on the back of improved market sentiment and increased commodity prices.

Collinson FX market Commentary: February 3, 2015
Feb 3 - Equity markets in the US fell again, following a week of sustained losses. Continuing the momentum from global markets worried by economic data. Manufacturing PMI data in Europe was weak and drifting lower, while China remained below expansion levels, trading 49.7. The impact of a slow European economy hits Chinese demand and impacts the US recovery.

US Manufacturing expanded by 53.5, lower than the expected 54.5, in line with the disappointing GDP numbers released last week. The EUR traded 1.1340, while the GBP held 1.5025, supported by a rising Manufacturing PMI number.

Commodity demand has been impacted dramatically, hitting the associated currencies, although attention in Australia has been in a Queensland State election loss to incumbent Liberals and the impact on the maligned Federal Government.

Attention will focus on the RBA today, Tuesday, with expectations for an interest rate cut, following global Central Banks. The AUDUSD holds 0.7800, but Monetary Policy is likely to impact, while the NZD tested 0.7300. The NZD currently trades 0.6435 and 0.4850 against the EUR and GBP.

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