Volvo Ocean Race- Three way Match race/Drag race to the finish
by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com on 7 Dec 2014
December 01, 2014. Leg 2 onboard Dongfeng Race Team. Team Brunel at a very short distance of Dongfeng Race Team. A week later the boats are still just a couple of miles apart Yann Riou / Dongfeng Race Team
The three leading boats on Leg 2 of the Volvo Ocean Race look set to be locked into a match race to the finish in Abu Dhabi.
To compound the stress levels around the navigation station there don't seem to be too many strategic options, other than to sail a direct course to the Straits of Hormuz, and then run the race from there.
Using the routing function of Predictwind we can see that the optimised course is a direct route to a point we have selected at the entrance to the Straits.
By calculation the time taken to reach this point we can also see that the positions on the Official Leader Board are the same as the positions deduced by Predictwind, which takes the position of the boat and applies the optimum course against the winds forecast as the boat progresses along its best course, taking into account the polar (performance projection) for the boat at different wind angles and speeds.
The Volvo Ocean Race system uses the distance taken to travel along the Great Circle route to the finish line, which is a lot more simplistic. As both systems are aligned - the fastest course also being the shortest course - then we can have a degree of confidence in what we are seeing.
The only caveat on that is that prediction is that Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing is further to the west than leg leader, Dongfeng Race Team and Team Brunel - who are very close together as they enter the Arabian Sea.
On distance to sail to the selected waypoint, Dongfeng is about 30 minutes ahead of Brunel with Abu Dhabi two hours or 20nm astern.
Here's how Volvo Ocean Race Control saw the action over the past few days:
DECEMBER 6, 2014, 0700 UTC
Latest position report: 0700 UTC
Leader: Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing
Wind speed: 7-12 knots
Boat speed SOG (15 mins): 8-11 knots
Wind direction: 9º to 325º
Lowest boat speed: Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing (8 knots)
Highest boat speed: Team SCA (11 knots)
Lowest wind speed: Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing (7 knots)
Highest wind speed: Team SCA (12 knots)
All the teams are reporting difficult nights. Tropical torrential rain and wind are draining the crews of energy and left soaking wet.
The constant sail changing and damage control is also taking its toll on the crews.
Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing are still in the lead as this report goes out but with the two other boats, Team Brunel and Dongfeng Race Team, now 50 nautical miles (nm) to their east, skipper Ian Walker could be overtaken if more favourable pressure goes in his rivals' direction.
These weather systems are so localized, you just need to be a mile or two apart and your fortunes could turn out completely different.
Dongfeng Race Team and Team Brunel are sticking together, probably hoping to be in the lead very soon. Fortunes can and will change within a drop of a rainstorm.
About a 100nm back down the rhumb-line, Team Alvimedica have caught up well and are now past MAPFRE who are licking their wounds after taking the easterly passing lane that turned quietly into an easterly country scenic route.
With 104 nm between Team Alvimedica and MAPFRE, the Americans have every chance of continuing on their charge back up the fleet. Especially if Ian Walker and his team get stuck in the current approaching cul-de-sac of no wind.
Enjoying slightly better winds, Team SCA are playing catch-up after falling behind in the west. They are not quite suffering the same conditions as the leaders yet. We say 'yet', as they have it all to come.
So to sum up, it’s stop-stop-start-stop with downpours and short bursts of fever pitch action thrown in.
Weather forecast for Saturday, December 6, 2014:
Synopsis
1) Heavier showers/squalls on satellite imagery near 8-9n/58-62e are moving W and SW and will not affect the fleet
2) Elsewhere, lots of sunshine, but there is a scattering of showers/isolated squalls on a NW line
from 1-3n/70e to 6-7n/64e
- the shower coverage appears to be about 15-20% and it is moving WNW
- showers are more likely to kill the wind than cause gusts over 20 kts
3) Transition zone from the westerlies to the NE/ENE trade winds is around and just S of 5n right now
- this transition zone will tend to move S and SE and expand over the next 24-36 hours
4) NE and E winds north of the transition zone will not be special, but the winds will be more consistent and slowly getting a little strong as the fleet heads north
Forecast along the race route, from Cape Town to Abu Dhabi
1) Still good W and WNW winds from 2n to south of the equator
- wind speeds up to 12-16 kts just S of the equator
2) Transition zone between the westerlies and NE-E winds settles southward to just N of 2n
- transition zone is quite large right now W of 65e, but will tend to spread to the SE during today
3) ENE winds start around 6n and will have 6-12 kts of wind speed
- slightly stronger NE winds of 10-14 kts start around 10n
- lightest NE-E winds will be found close to 69-70e
Weather:
Lots of sunshine again with at most an isolated shower. SW-W seas of 2-4 feet near the equator and smaller NW-N-NE seas from the transition into the NE trade winds
DECEMBER 5, 2014, 1930 UTC
Latest position report: 1900 UTC
Leader: ADOR
Wind speed: 9-14 knots
Boat speed SOG (15 mins): 9 knots
Wind direction: 284º to 33º
Lowest boat speed: MAPF (6,3 knots)
Highest boat speed: ALVI (14,4 knots)
Lowest wind speed: TBRU (9 knots)
Highest wind speed: SCA (14 knots)
Long weekend ahead…
The fleet is about to enter a light-air area due to a convergence between easterly and the westerly winds. Sailors call the 'second Doldrums'.
Weather models are showing that they won’t be out of that system until Monday – at least! Winds are going to be very light. If they’re in luck, they could get 5 knots of breeze, at most.
Drifting across the Indian Ocean in very hot temperatures – definitely not your ideal weekend plan. The air temperature is between 30 and 35 degrees and the water temperature averages the 30 degrees.
Imagine that: from 1636 UTC to 1724 UTC, MAPFRE tacked four times due to the light and shifty airs.
Team Brunel and Dongfeng have lost 8 nautical miles (nm) to Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing. MAPFRE has lost another 10nm to the Emirati boat, and Team Alvimedica and Team SCA have been doing serious gains – 10nm in the last three hours, 20nm in the last six hours.
Crossing times at the Equator:
ADOR - 2210 - DEC 4
BNL - 2215 - DEC 4
DFG - 2220 - DEC 4
MAPF - 0400 - DEC 5
ALV - 1140 - DEC 5
SCA - 30nm to the crossing
DECEMBER 5, 2014, 0700 UTC
Latest position report: 0700 UTC
Leader: ADOR
Wind Speed: 12-14 knots
Boat speed SOG (15 mins): 11-14 knots
Wind direction: 273º to 286º
Lowest boat speed: MAPFRE (11 knots)
Highest boat speed: Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing, Team Brunel, Dongfeng Race Team, Team SCA (14 knots)
Lowest wind speed: MAPFRE, Team SCA (12 knots)
Highest wind speed: Dongfeng Race Team, Team Brunel (14 knots)
Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing crossed the Equator overnight and their two pursuers, Team Brunel and Dongfeng Race Team, are still glued to their heels.
The fleet is now fairly well spread from east to west, with 150 nautical miles (nm) separating them.
In the last 12 hours, Team Alvimedica, locked in fifth, have had a stronger breeze and better angle coming from the west which has allowed them to gain 20nm on MAPFRE.
But all the fleet, now that Team SCA have gybed and are heading north, are enjoying good pressure at an average of 13 knots.
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