Volvo Ocean Race- Fleet turns to avoid Ice and heads for Cape Town
by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz on 1 Nov 2014
October 30, 2014. Leg 1 onboard Team Brunel. The team are taking a battering as they head further South to catch the Westerly winds. Stefan Coppers/Team Brunel
The lead boats in the Volvo Ocean Race have all turned and are heading for the finish line in Cape Town which is about four days 10hrs distant as of the 1840hrs UTC sked on October 31.
The lead four boats , Team Brunel, Abu Dhabi, Team Vestas and Dongfeng are all covered by a very small distance indeed, and the Routing function of
Predictwind has them covered by just three minutes in terms of finishing times in Cape Town - using the fastest of the two weather options.
The world speed record for the longest distance sailed by a monohull in 24 hours would appear to be under threat from around mid-morning on November 2, with winds expected to increase to 30kts average, gusts can be up to a third higher. But on the direct course to Cape Town these winds will only last for six hours or so. However if the fleet turn and head south again, then the prospects of a new record increase as the boats will stay in the strong winds for a much longer period, and average boat speeds are shown as being well above the 24.85kt average required to set a new mark.
Currently the boats are heading along the edge of the newly imposed Ice Exclusion Zone, which was put in place on October 28 after Volvo Ocean Race received reports of a large iceberg in the area and decided to route the fleet around it, to avoid the berg itself plus the associated debris. Although the zone was imposed late, no boats were affected in terms of having to make an immediate course change.
Volvo Ocean Race expects the fleet to head south again once the Gate has been cleared, however that is at variance with the the fastest routing option from one of the weather feeds. Even applying the weather data from a feed believed to be close to the weather information supplied to the race boats by Volvo Ocean Race, the finish is predicted to be just over five days away on the evening of November 5, however there is only one hour difference in the predicted times, but a 270nm variance in distance to be sailed - so the downside is significant if there is a change in weather.
Typically race navigators will not move too far away from a direct route in the latter stages of a race, due to the risk of sailing a longer distance in worse wind conditions. If there is an extreme course option on offer, as there is at present, they will move a little to that side to protect their position.
The latest updates from Volvo Ocean Race Control are:
Last position report: October 31, 2014 1700 UTC
Leader: ADOR
Wind Speed: 16 to 28 knots
Boat speed SOG (15 mins): 16 to 23 knots
Wind direction: 300º to 316º
Lowest boat speed: SCA (16 knots)
Highest boat speed: ADOR (23 knots)
Lowest wind speed: SCA (16 knots)
Highest wind speed: DFRT (28 knots)
It was like a case of follow the leader this morning, as all boats gybed between 0700 and 0800 UTC.
The leading pack then continued – but at around 1300 UTC both MAPFRE and Team SCA gybed again.
Dongfeng Race Team started the day in the lead, but that superiority was short-lived, and they lost pole position at around 1000 UTC this morning.
Incredibly, there is now just a 10 mile difference between Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing in first place, and Dongfeng Race Team.
The Emirati boat is moving the fastest and is also chalking up the miles – they’ve just 1943 nm left until they hit Cape Town.
The current wind direction is west-north west, and all boats except Team Alvimedica, MAPFRE and Team SCA have now reached the Roaring Forties, found at latitude 40° South.
OCTOBER 31, 2014, 0600 UTC
Latest position report: October 31, 2014 0600 UTC
Leader: Dongfeng Race Team
Wind Speed: 16 to 126 knots
Boat speed SOG (15 mins): 16 to 25 knots
Wind direction: 164º-192º
Lowest boat speed: MAPFRE (11.7 knots)
Highest boat speed: Team Alvimedica (20.9 knots)
Lowest wind speed: Team SCA (16 knots)
Highest wind speed: Team Alvimedica (26 knots)
Like in the old English tale of Robin Hood, it’s a case of taking from the rich and giving to the poor. That is what we have been seeing over the last few days.
More wind just behind the leaders has allowed the middle, poorer pack to catch the rich leaders. Unfortunately for the most needy, Team SCA and MAPFRE, the handouts didn’t stretch that far down the queue and they have received no goodies in the form of strong breezes.
The fleet spread is now 490nm from first to seventh.
Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing has been robbed from both sides. Team Brunel and Team Vestas Wind from the west of them, and now Dongfeng Race Team from the east, are creeping up to pick their pocket in nautical miles.
The leaders have given each other a great opportunity to test their sail combinations. Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing have reported that the boats are so close they can see when Team Brunel change a sail and can assess their relative speeds. All good learning for the race ahead.
The challenge for this log is that once a sentence is finished, the race situation, especially at the head of the fleet, can so rapidly change.
Think of the one bird in a huge flock of starlings that flinches first to change direction or something that startles a herd of impala.
Today is Halloween and the scene is set, what will spook the fleet? Who will be the first boat to lose their nerve and gybe? Could it be the American skipper Charlie Enright who has come to trick-or-treat the fleet to the east?
Should one boat gybe, then that is all the rest need to see to turn too.
The reason for the stand-off is they are trying to maximize the good shift they are in now. The fleet would not gybe if the ice exclusion were not there. They all have to go soon or they will stray into the exclusion zone.
After the fleet has passed ice exclusion zone, they will dive south again. It’s going to get cold.
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