Please select your home edition
Edition

Collinson FX Market Commentary- September 4, 2014 - 'Rock-star' fades

by Collinson FX on 4 Sep 2014
- RNZYS Winter Series, August 30, 2014 Ginger Photography https://www.facebook.com/gingermarinephotography
Collinson FX market Commentary: September 4, 2014

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

European equity markets jumped with news of a permanent ceasefire in the Ukraine and the EUR steadied around 1.3150. The enthusiastic embrace of the peace plan, was greeted with relief, due to the damage being done to the balance of power within Europe and hit to Euro/Russian trade.

This was dampened, when the Russians tempered the Ukrainian peace claims and advised of nothing certain, yet! The Ukrainians have little choice but to negotiate with the Russians as they would be overwhelmed by superior force with no prospect of European assistance. US Equities were steady, supported by a growing improvement in economic data, encouraging speculation for the end of QE and interest rate rises. Factory order surged by 10.5% and the Beige Book reported further economic expansion.

This does little for equities as they have been supported by the avalanche of Central Bank liquidity.

The AUD booked gains, moving to 0.9350, after strong Chinese growth data and local GDP beating expectations. The NZD remained under pressure, heading back towards 0.8300, as the 'rock-star' economy fades with an increasingly competitive election beckoning. Central Bank activity and Geo-Political developments remain central to market direction. The NZD is trading strongly against the GBP at 0.5030 and weekend against the AUD buying under the 0.8900 mark.


Collinson FX market Commentary: September 3, 2014

The USD Dollar surged overnight after positive Manufacturing data reduced the likelihood of extended QE from the Federal Reserve. The ISM Manufacturing expanded to 3 year highs and complimented recent growth data.

In contrast to the European Manufacturing, which is stagnant if not contracting, with expectations of further QE from the ECB. The EUR, understandably, dipped back to 1.3120 while the GBP crashed to 1.6475 as local manufacturing reversed recent growth. The RBA retained the current 2.5% rate while commentary reinforces the need for further stimulus. This did not assist the AUD, which dropped below 0.9300, despite Building Approvals rising.

The good news was on the political front, where the Conservative Government had a victory with the removal of the Mining Tax, boosting the most important sector in the Australian economy. The KIWI weakened, falling to 0.8300, with the approaching election looking anything but certain and the economy under self-imposed RBNZ pressure.

Geo-Political events continue to spiral out of control with another US Journo' beheaded and IS on the march. The Ukrainian crises is closer to a deal, with the Ukrainians realizing the Russians call the shots and reliance on the West is folly. Milk prices took another hit in the auction overnight.

The GlobalDairyTrade (GDT) Index hitting a new 2 year low of US$2,787, down from US$3,000 two weeks ago. Despite this the NZD did not lose too much ground, testing the 0.8300 mark on the downside. Despite this the NZD is still trading strongly against the EUR and GBP at 0.6310 and .5030 respectively.



Collinson FX market Commentary: September 2, 2014
Labor Day long week end in the US meant a quiet start to a huge trading week. The focus shifted to Asia and Europe with Manufacturing data contracting and offering no reason for confidence.

Chinese PMI contracted and EU data was the worst seen in over a year. This encouraged speculation of further Central Bank intervention reflected in Bond yields. The EURO remained under extreme pressure from economic fundamentals and Central Bank influence, trading 1.3125, while the GBP broke back above 1.6600.

Australian House Prices jumped, increasing the likelihood of a bubble, but off-setting the Chinese manufacturing numbers. The AUD managed to trade steadily around 0.9330 while the KIWI tested 0.8375.

The Ukrainian situation is spiraling out of control and the ISIS situation adds to global Geo-Political pressures. Everything will kick into action when the US Markets open tonight!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Related Articles

Collinson FX: July 10: "Wait and see"
This is more a ‘wait-and-see policy' than a ‘job-done', as the NZ economy remains on struggle street The RBNZ followed the lead of the RBA and left rates unchanged. This is more a ‘wait-and-see policy' than a ‘job-done', as the NZ economy remains on struggle street.
Posted on 10 Jul
Collinson FX: July 1: US Equities hit record high
TheCanadian Government could not hit reverse gear fast enough, on their brand new digital tax The Canadian Government could not hit reverse gear fast enough, on their brand new digital tax, following Trump shutting down trade negotiations.
Posted on 30 Jun
Collinson FX: June 27: Confidence builds in US
The US Dollar has been tumbling, as the need for a safe haven dissipates. Focus back on Trade Wars. US equity markets continued to rally as confidence builds. The US Dollar has been tumbling, as the need for a safe haven dissipates, while trade wars come back into focus.
Posted on 27 Jun
Collinson FX: June 18: Markets tumble again
Markets tumbled again overnight, with the Israeli war on Iran, totally pre-occupying markets. Markets tumbled again overnight, with the Israeli war on Iran, totally pre-occupying markets. The war rages on, with devastating air attacks launched and received, from both sides.
Posted on 18 Jun
Collinson FX: June 13: Xi bounces agreement
Xi bounces trade agreement that was a great deal for USA but very unfavourable to China. Reservations remain over the latest rendition of the US/China Trade Agreement. Trump announced it was a ‘done deal' and that China would pay tariffs of 55%, while the US would pay only 10%. This was not signed off in by President Xi.
Posted on 14 Jun
Collinson FX: June 6: EU cuts rates
President Trump held an important phone conversation with Chinese President Xi. Trade wars were the market focus, once again overnight, as President Trump held an important phone conversation with Chinese President Xi.
Posted on 6 Jun
Collinson FX: May 30: Trump in Court battles
Markets were shaken by the latest court order (latter upset on Appeal), in the USA. Markets were shaken by the latest court order (latter upset on Appeal), in the USA, by the US Court of International Trade. This effectively halted the Trump tariffs and was a boost to many Countries, that do not have a trade agreement with the USA
Posted on 29 May
Collinson FX May 26: Trump Tariff movie hits EU
Trump's "Art of the Deal" trade wars movie gets released in Europe with a 50% opener on Sunday. Market sentiment turned negative, over the weekend, following the announcement of tariffs on the EU. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on all EU products, commencing 1st of June
Posted on 26 May
Collinson FX May 22: USD down, others rise
The US Dollar weakness is a result of concerns surrounding the US economy and US growth. The EUR topped 1.1300, while the GBP broke back above 1.3400. The US Dollar weakness is a result of concerns surrounding the US economy and US growth. Moody's downgraded the US credit rating and economic data has been weak.
Posted on 22 May
Collinson FX May 16: Tariffs depress inflation
Markets began to trade according to economic data releases, rather than fears held over global trade The latest US PPI was softer than expected, joining the last CPI inflation reading, confirming the tariffs have not raised inflation, but in fact the opposite.
Posted on 16 May