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Collinson FX Market Commentary- November 5, 2013 - Expectations high

by Collinson FX on 5 Nov 2013
Giacomo (Jim Delegat) - Start of Coastal Classic 2013, Waitemata Harbour, October 25, 2013 Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX market Commentary: November 5, 2013

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Equity markets closed last week strongly and have high expectations going into a strong new week of economic data releases.

Close attention will be paid to US Employment reports and GDP growth. Expectations are not high for either, with the last quarter showing no signs of a break out in the economic recovery. Analysts expect growth to contract to around 2% from 2.5% and employment to remain steady at best.

Low expectations may result in a rally in equities if the data releases are tepid. US Factory Orders rose 1.7%, slightly below expectations, but well above last months fall. The Fed will continue to pump $85 Billion, every month into the system, supporting the bubble in equities. The Dollar was steady, but with the destructive campaign the Fed has been waging, should be on the decline. The EUR traded 1.3500 and the GBP 1.5950 reflecting the weakness in the Eurozone rather than any inherent strength in the reserve currency.

Australian Retail Sales jumped 0.8%,although house prices drifted lower and job ads declined for the month in the lead up to the RBA meeting on Melbourne Cup Day. A history of cuts on Melbourne Cup Day may lead to cuts in the official rate but Ozzies will be more concerned about the outcome of the 'Great Race!' The AUD held up prior to the Central Bank meeting, trading around 0.9500 and the KIWI 0.8260.

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