Sydney Hobart - Race Record or Boat Breaking Southerlies

22 Dec 2009                                                                If you have trouble reading this email CLICK HERE

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Sydney Hobart - Race Record or Boat Breaking southerlies?

Rolex Sydney Hobart 2009 - Wind against tide, 30 knots and six metre seas and backless waves or a super fast down hill side with a 38 hour race record?

Yesterday the mostly likely long range weather model suggested there could be boat breaking seas in the 2009 Rolex Sydney Hobart race, with strong southerlies pushing against the fast flowing east Australian current.

Today Barry Hanstrum from the Bureau of Meteorology predicts there could be strong northerlies and should that come to pass, routing data suggests a new race record.

The reality is its too early to tell.

Ex-Tropical cyclone Laurence has moved inland and is expected to move into NSW and Victoria as a deepening trough and there will be north east or northerly winds to the east of it.

The GFS model projects northerly winds at the start of the race with a Tasmanian low which could see Wild Oats XI slipping up the Derwent River in the wee hours.

In 2005 Bob Oatley's Wild Oats XI broke the race record crossing the finish line at 7:40:10.

If today's GFS forecast holds good with strong northerlies for the start and well into the night, she'd arrive much earlier, two hours before dawn on Monday 28th.

However if the EC model holds sway the trough will be off the NSW coast and deliver strong southerlies right into Bass Strait and that would allow the good citizens of Hobart time to finish their bacon and eggs before heading dockside to welcome the supermaxis.

You and the 100 boat fleet will have to wait to find out... which will it be?

Rob Kothe and the Sail-World Team

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