Rainfall over northeast Australia during the 2010/11 La Niña in numerical simulations with sea surface temperatures (SST) including (red) and excluding (blue) ocean warming compared to a simulation using average ocean conditions (black). The likelihood of having as much or more rainfall as was observed in 2010/11 (green dashed line) is three times as likely in the simulation with long-term ocean warming, compared to the simulation without ocean temperature trends. (Image courtesy of Ummenhofer,