sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Video Gallery Photo Gallery
Sail-World.com : Volvo Ocean Race - Predicting Mar Mostro's ETA
Volvo Ocean Race - Predicting Mar Mostro's ETA

'Shannon Falcone trims the main for Jono Swain on the helm. Onboard PUMA Ocean Racing powered by BERG during leg 6 of the Volvo Ocean Race 2011-12'    Amory Ross/Puma Ocean Racing/Volvo Ocean Race©    Click Here to view large photo

Volvo Ocean Race, Day 11 of Leg 6. Amory Ross, MCM for Puma Ocean Racing powered by Berg, reports on the crew's progress:

'I really miss the hot chocolate,' Rome Kirby.

Our daily routines are predictable enough. Each day is more or less the same and at some point day 17 begins to feel like day 12, which very much felt like day six. One variable of inconsistent kind though, and one of great interest to everyone onboard, is Tom’s ETA, or estimated finishing date. Our predicted arrival is something we all want to know and for a variety of reasons, but it’s a figure that is also in continuous flux.

It can be amazingly difficult to predict when you’re going to arrive at a destination 3,000 miles away in a landscape of geographic uncertainty, but today’s software, weather files, and boat performance profiles combine to give it an honest try. There are family flights to book, boat repairs to schedule, food and fuel to manage, and the high hopes of the 11 of us waiting for a burger, beer, and a proper shower, and they all hinge on a very simple process.

Somewhere in the world somebody begins by analysing the weather. Their findings are digitized into 'grib' models, a virtual record of predicted winds spanning up to several weeks out for the entire globe. These files are loaded into the onboard routing software that use our current location and our boat’s performance polars (tables that suggest what speeds Mar Mostro should attain at any combination of wind speed and wind angle) to best map our course to the next waypoint.

Obviously, there is more than one way to decipher the weather, so there are multiple models to choose from. With each update (several times a day) Tom downloads either the 'EC,' (short for…ECWF), or the 'GFS,' (…God Forged Scheduling?), loads it into the software, and out comes an ETA. Routing doesn’t take certain things into consideration, things like a rough sea state that would prevent us from reaching our predicted polar speeds, so there’s a certain degree of human interpretation for Tom before he decides on a route and a date, but eventually a day is picked. The closer we get, the more accurate the prediction power is, but one thing that’s for sure is that we can never be sure.

In the context of this leg, it looks like we’ll be one or two days late, so it’s time to start squirreling away some food again, just like we did on the last leg. Extra bars for lunch instead of a meal when the wind is light, split the chicken tikka – a notoriously large serving – into two meals, things like that. It’s not the models’ fault, or the forecasters that make them, because weather is weather and it changes. You can’t suggest that conditions are 'supposed' to be anything, because they’re unpredictable by nature. All we can do is hope the models are more accurate than not!

Michi Mueller parts the seas. Onboard PUMA Ocean Racing powered by BERG during leg 6 of the Volvo Ocean Race 2011-12 -  Amory Ross-Puma Ocean Racing-Volvo Ocean Race©   Click Here to view large photo

Puma Ocean Racing website
Volvo Ocean Race website


by Amory Ross

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=96801

11:22 AM Thu 3 May 2012GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011-12 Volvo Ocean Race

Related News Stories:

03 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Battle at the head of the fleet continues
03 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race: Camper leads but navigational nightmare ahead
03 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Groupama escape the Doldrums
02 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race: Tight at front as fleet exit Doldrums
02 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Monotony disrupted onboard Mar Mostro
02 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Combat continues for Puma
01 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Puma Ocean Racing plagued by clouds + Video
01 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Puma aims to stay in the lead + Video
01 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Puma corrects the error of their ways
01 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Groupama prepares to tackle the Doldrums
MORE STORIES ...






News - USA and the World













HUD Vision: An interview with Afterguard Marine’s Alex Moret *Feature by David Schmidt, Sail-World USA Editor, Seattle














America's Cup: Expected de Ridder penalty should be reduced *Feature by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz, Auckland, NZ
















Congressional Cup - Victory for Taylor Canfield and crew by Rich Roberts (As Amended by ISAF),




2014 Halifax – Saint-Pierre Ocean Race by Patricia Nelder, Nova Scotia














Image Gallery: Stratis SL33 flies on the Waitemata by Richard Gladwell,Sail-world.com/nz,


Audi Melges 20- Sperry Topsider Charleston Race Week - Light final day by International Audi Melges 20 Class Association,




ISAF Sailing World Cup Hyères - Crème of the crop to compete
Congressional Cup: Luna Rossa makes podium in first event
Int 14 World Championships 2015 launch new event website
International Optimist Regatta Clinic and Team Race - Register now!
Congressional Cup: World top rankers finish that way in Long Beach
Sperry Top-Sider Charleston Race Week Day 3 finale
America's Cup: Gino Morrelli outlines the new AC62 design
Doyle Sails New Zealand signs Andrew Brown as One Design Manager
America's Cup: Dean Barker's Blog - A sail with the Duke and Duchess *Feature
29er World Youth Sailing Week Easter regatta - Day 1 and 2 overall
C Thomas Clagett Jr Memorial Clinic/Regatta - Entries start to roll in
50th Congressional Cup: See the delayed coverage and media conferences
Clipper Race 10 Day 27: Closing stages - Qingdao to San Francisco
Canfield, Williams, Bruni, Swinton in Congressional Cup final four
Sperry Top-Sider Charleston Race Week - Day 2
Audi Melges 20 Charleston Race Week - Perfect conditions in Charleston
Oyster Regatta Antigua - Full on ocean conditions for day 3
PWA World Tour - A taste of things to come at La Torche + Video
Women's International Match Racing Series kicks off in June
Melges 32 Audi Tron Sailing Series - Action shots by Max Ranchi
Clipper Round the World Yacht Race - Frustrating conditions   
Man rescued after falling overboard in Pacific taken to hospital   
Sperry Top-Sider Charleston Race Week 2014 - Youth leading Melges 20   
Congressional Cup - Canfield leads toward Congressional Cup sailoffs   
Sperry Top-Sider Charleston Race Week 2014 - Perfection for Day 1   
America's Cup: Coutts claims ISAF Jury on a crusade, backs Kiwi report *Feature   
Clipper Round the World Yacht Race - Will light winds hamper progress?   
Les Voiles de St. Barth - Preparing to rock Saint Barthélemy waters   
Clipper Round the World Race - OneDLL and Qingdao now in San Francisco   
America's Cup: Emirates Team NZ up against funding hurdle for year *Feature   
Melges 32 Sailing Series Napoli - Day 1 images by Stefano Gattini   
50th Congressional Cup: View the Live racing here   
Melges 32 Sailing Series - Napoli action shots by Max Ranchi   
Volvo Ocean Race - Team Alvimedica launch new boat   
Emirates Team NZ: Royals duke it out on the Waitemata   
2014 Charleston Race Week - Thousands of sailors descend on Charleston   
The Congressional Cup 2014 - Williams hangs on with a classy crowd   
50th Congressional Cup: View the Live racing here   
RORC Transatlantic Race - Notice of Race now available   
Oyster Regatta Antigua - Sunshine and smiles on day 2   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News







Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XL VIR US