sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 2, 2013 - Unimpressive largesse
Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 2, 2013 - Unimpressive largesse


'Ross 930’s - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3'    Richard Gladwell ©    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: May 2, 2013

Click here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

The Fed recognised 'downside risks' and pledged to continue the extreme QE policies it has maintained to stimulate the flagging economy. The Fed promised to increase and decrease as circumstances demanded but this failed to inspire equity markets. The DOW tumbled triple digits entering the month of May. The important ADP private sector jobs report fell well short of expectations, adding 110,000 Jobs, well below the 150,000.

This is a guide to the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday which has high hopes of growth but economic fundamentals have been weak despite the surge in risk appetite. Construction Spending contracted 1.7%, pouring cold water on the Housing recovery which has been the ray of hope. The EUR has been a beneficiary of the bad news from America, rising to 1.3180 and the GBP continuing to book gains trading 1.5565.

Chinese Manufacturing data disappointed, falling to 50.6 from 50.9, which does not mean a great deal but does reveal directional worries. The bad news from China has killed demand for commodities which fell across the board. This did not help the higher yielding stellar currencies that have been the darlings of the markets.

The AUD dipped back to 1.0270 and the KIWI slipped below 0.8500. Warnings bells are sounding across the risk markets despite the $3.3 Trillion Balance Sheet the Fed has accumulated, with promises of further largese.

Reckless Monetary policy to counter Fiscal ineptitude has forced Reserve Banks to extreme expansion causing bubbles and begging an explosion of deformations in Bonds and Equities. Inflationary pressures have been forgotten through measurement techniques and lapsed memories but it is there and will rise reminding economists of their worst nightmare scenario.

Phoning home after a win XL - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3 -  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: May 1, 2013

Markets were again flat on equity markets with mixed economic data and some weaker than expected earnings results in the US.

In Europe, EU CPI contracted to 1.2% reflecting negative growth in the zone and the continuance of extended recession/depression. Employment has reached 12.1% across the single market and it is hard to move ahead with so many idle resources directly impacting the consumer. German Consumer Confidence rose to 6.2 but retail sales contracted 2.8%, so domestic demand is no saviour.

The EUR remained firm, trading 1.3150 and the GBP 1.5525, ignoring the expected cut in interest rates by the ECB.

In the US, the Case Shiller Home Price Index rose to a 7 year high of 9.3% boosting hopes of a recovery in this leading sector. Consumer Confidence was also higher, to 68.1, but this good news was dented by the Chicago Manufacturing report which plunged below 50 to 49.

Economic fundamentals continue to disappoint and technicals are now pointing to peaks in the equity markets which coincides with the month of the Bear!

Commodities remain bid and the AUD holds 1.0350 and the KIWI 0.8550. These yield driven, risk currencies will be heavily impacted by any correction in equities and commodities as safety flows to the 'Big Dollar'!

Multihull start - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 2 -  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: April 30, 2013

Equity markets continued the rally in Equities, despite the slew of weak economic data, emanating from a positive European rally. Expectations are that the ECB will cut rates to 0.5% and in addition launch in to a round of QE and an aggressive debt monitisation program. The 'currency wars' have resulted in a recovery in US and Japanese equities and the ECB are considering throwing caution to the wind.

Debt monitisation was a pre-GFC no-no for all Central Banks, as the purchase of your own Government debt to fund ever increasing deficits and debt was seen as economically corrupt. Central Bankers crossed the line and have now abandoned many of the principles of Monetary Policy previously sacrosanct.

The news from Europe should have resulted in further erosion of the value of the single currency but had the opposite effect. The EUR rallied to 1.3100, reacting to the rise in risk appetite and boosted by an increase in commodity demand. The GBP held steady at 1.5480 and all looks positive across Europe with a Government in Italy and the new pro-growth anti-austerity sentiment prevailing.

Forget the critical deficits driving debt to unserviceable levels as interest rates flooded with liquidity should allow this gross delusion to continue. US Equity markets rallied on the back of EU prospects with the S&P hitting new highs as the rally continues. Pending Home Sales rose 1.5% and this was a further sign from the market Gods to pile in!

The Dallas Fed Activity Index plunged 15.6% but this was largely ignored as Bernanke drives investment decisions in search of yield building bubbles. Economic fundamentals have all pointed in the opposite direction and May could be the reality check the market finally needs.

The AUD bounced on further rises in demand for commodities and traded 1.0330 with the KIWI continuing to outperform at 0.8540. Scary times with frenzied yield investment and unprecedented technical levels.

Multihull start - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 2 -  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: April 29, 2013

US GDP data frightened many equity investors as markets fell flat. First quarter growth in the US was 0.4% and an annualised rate of 2.5% below the expected 3%. The news was not surprising as economic fundamentals have been weak all year despite the much vaunted 'housing recovery!'

Data will be out this coming week placing some doubt on market forecasts in the leading indicator that is housing.

This coming week will look closely at this and pay close attention to the Fed's rate decision and the ECB, who are expected to cut rates as Europe continues to battle recession. The EUR held above 1.3000 and the GBP looks set to test 1.5500! Risk appetite has fallen recently despite the continuing flood of liquidity being pumped into the US, Japan and the EC.

The major employment reports will also be released in the US which will probably confirm the stagnation in the worlds largest economy. Commodities remain bid supporting the AUD at 1.0275 but this will be vulnerable to any major equity correction in May!.

The KIWI continues to gain support and has become a market darling trading up around the 0.8500 but this too will suffer uncertainty in Equities and risk markets!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=109067

7:30 PM Wed 1 May 2013GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

01 May 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 1, 2013 - KIWI in for a caning?
01 May 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 30, 2013 - Euro defies gravity
29 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 29, 2013 - KIWI market darling
27 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 26, 2013 - Poms avoid a bath
24 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 24, 2013 - Twitter hack strikes
23 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 23, 2013 - Bulls try hard
21 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 20, 2013 - Week closes quietly
19 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 19, 2013 - Equities tumble more
18 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 18, 2013 - Risk appetite wanes
17 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 17, 2013 - Bomb hits markets
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World

Sail-World is now running live in the changed website format. If you are running on a Mac with iOS please scroll to the bottom of the site and check that your region is set for your region and not some other. It can be correctly set up using the drop down boxes. Then go to the top, click refresh, and you should be away. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart: Wild Oats XI and Comanche Finish Images *Feature by Crosbie Lorimer, Hobart, Tasmania
The Comanche and Wild Oats XI teams were equally gracious in victory and defeat on the dockside in Hobart today. It had been a close fought battle and while Comanche had reeled Wild Oats XI back in overnight to within 9nm , there simply wasn't enough air to power up the American boat in the run across Storm Bay and up the Derwent River. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race 2014: In what skipper Mark Richards described as the crew’s most hard-fought line honours triumph, Wild Oats XI held off the impressive challenge posed by Comanche, the newly-launched entry from the United States. Completing the race in 2 days, 2 hours, 3 minutes and 26 seconds, Wild Oats XI finished eight hours shy of the race record she set in 2012. ... [more]  

After being dismasted a short time ago in the Rolex Sydney Hobart, Giacomo is motoring to the lee of Maria Island. In other race news, a very disappointed Bill Wild has retired his Reichel/Pugh 55, Wedgetail, from the race after suffering mast damage in the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia’s 628 nautical mile race at approximately 7.40pm off Schouten Island. All are safe and well on board. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race 2014: Spithill was one of six helmsmen on Comanche. 'We can’t leave it at that,' he declared after finishing in Hobart. He says that on his watch this morning the boat reached a top speed of 32 knots and knows what she is capable of. 'Everybody got to see the true potential of this boat at the start. ... [more]  

Top international yachting photographer, Carlo Borlenghi was in the air above the Rolex Sydney Hobart Race fleet and provided these images of the third day of racing in the classic ocean race, as the leaders closed in on the finish, and the dock celebrations by Wild Oats XI. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - 'This is the sweetest victory by far,' Wild Oats XI skipper Mark Richards declared today after steering the silver-grey thoroughbred to a record eighth line honours victory in the Rolex Sydney Hobart. 'To rewrite a bit of sailing history doesn’t come along every day. To win a Hobart is a great honour but to win an eighth; I can’t believe I am here,' Richards said. ... [more]  

Photographer Andrea Francolini was on the water at 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race line honours finish and provided this gallery of images. ... [more]  

Wild Oats XI entered the Derwent River some forty minutes ahead of Comanche at the Iron Pot and gybed her way up river in 5-10 knot southeaster, bright sunshine and crystal clear light to take a record breaking eighth line honours win in this race at 3.03pm The size of spectator fleet that accompanied Wild Oats XI and the crowds on the dock were much the largest ever sen for this race. ... [more]  

The Volvo 70 Giacomo has lost her rig in the vicinity of Maria Island. A second yacht Wedgetail (an RP55) lost the top off her mast in the same area at the same time. Giacomo is a Volvo 70 owned and skippered by Jim Delegat (NZL) and has a full New Zealand crew aboard ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart Wild Oats XI takes number eight by Rob Kothe and the Sail-World Team
Wild Oats XI finished at 303pm, with her big A2 flying. Her elapsed time was two days two hours three minutes and twenty six seconds 02:02:03:26 That was some eight hours outside the race record she set in 2012 of 1 day, 18 hours, 23 minutes and 12 seconds. ... [more]  

At the 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race photographer Daniel Forster was on the water and provided this gallery of images from Day 2. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart: Wild Oats XI scores comfortable 8th win by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz
Wild Oats XI (Oatley family) has crossed the finish line for the Rolex Sydney Hobart race to take her eighth win in the offshore classic. She crossed the finish line in the Derwent River sailing on port tack with a big asymmetrical headsail flying, and accompanied by a bevy of spectator craft as she crossed the finish line at 3.00pm local time. ... [more]  

In Alamitos Bay Yacht Club's annual Boxing Day race the hometown Gibbs brothers, Riley, 18, and Sawyer, 16, started last in their 49er skiff but passed all of the other boats of various types to finish first in brilliant sun but cool light air Sunday. ... [more]  

2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - Wild Oats XI is still leading the 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart, some 38-nm from Hobart, and hoping to close in on a record eighth line honours win. ... [more]  

2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - The crew on the American super maxi Comanche have not thrown in the towel. They do not believe the race for line honours in the Rolex Sydney Hobart is over despite Wild Oats XI’s commanding lead. ... [more]  

2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - Bob Oatley’s 10 year-old super maxi Wild Oats XI is racing towards an historic eighth line honours victory in the Rolex Sydney Hobart this morning. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart: Wild Oats rounds Tasman Island by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz
Seven time race winner, Wild Oats XI (Oatley family) looks set to take her eighth win, after rounding Tasman Island just before noon, local time. The supermaxi rounded the landmark with a ten mile lead over the US supermaxi Comanche and has about 35nm to sail in a direct line to the finish line off Hobart. ... [more]  

With the front runners in the Rolex Sydney Hobart expected to sneak through in light to moderate tail winds, the weather prognosis for the remainder of the fleet is, well, interesting. The simple analysis is that fresh northerly winds will give the fleet a fast ride on Sunday and during the daylight hours of Monday. ... [more]  

Wild Oats XI (Oatley family) is expected to cross the finish line, around 4pm on Sunday and take her eighth line honours win. The race leaders are making good time down the coast of Tasmania, and at daybreak had approximately 100nm to sail. ... [more]  

Sydney to Hobart - Another 40 foot white-wash? by Rob Kothe and the Sail-World team
With the Supermaxi battle probably all over in this 70th Rolex Sydney to Hobart race, unless Wild Oats XI drops her rig in the next five hours, she is set to take her eighth line honours victory so at last the attention will shift to the real race, the battle for handicap honours. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart: Your Turn, Then My Turn, Then Your Turn! *Feature by Crosbie Lorimer, Hobart, Tasmania
With the front runners over halfway to Hobart, this year’s race is turning out to be quite a page turner already; and that’s just the big boats. So let’s start with them. Wind back to the start, first honours to Comanche in the shoot out to the first mark. To be fair it was akin to pitting a brand new Bugatti Veyron against some classy and quick Ferraris and Porsches. The result in those ... [more]  

There is absolutely no way anyone can predict these before the vast majority of the still 109 vessels racing actually get home to Hobart Town. One can, however, talk about the very things that do go into making these results that so many chase and to do so, we have to work through a myriad of vessel designs, ages and types. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart 2014; Handicap Honours Predictions VIDEO *Feature by Dale Lorimer, Hobart, Tasmania
Given the weather models for the race, Crosbie Lorimer did the rounds of the CYCA dock just prior to the start of the race to find out who the various skippers, navigators and tacticians believed might take out the overall Handicap win on IRC. Here are some of their predictions, how they are panning out for some and an update on the position at the front of the fleet. ... [more]  

Sydney Hobart 2014: A ridge too far for Comanche by Bruce Montgomery, RSHYR Media
2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - That’s the conclusion that one might well draw from the huge difference in the performance of the Hamilton Island super maxi Wild Oats XI and her main challenger, the US boat Comanche. ... [more]  

Photographer Daniel Forster was in the air again for the Sydney Hobart 2014, and provided this gallery of images. ... [more]  

2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - The chase for line honours at the 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race is intensifying with the leading boats approaching the halfway mark of the 628-nm race. ... [more]  

By Grand Prix ocean racing standards she’s an old girl, and there’s no denying she’s had a few makeovers during the past decade, but Bob Oatley’s 30-metre long supermaxi, Wild Oats XI, was leaving no doubt today that when it came to speed she’s still got great legs. ... [more]  

2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - After 24 hours the Hamilton Island supermaxi Wild Oats XI has taken the lead for the first time in the Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race, the 70th sailing of the event. ... [more]  

Photographer Howard Wright was on the water at the start of the 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race, and provided this gallery of images. ... [more]  

Looking back it is not so long ago that sailors making long trips had to make the key choice between light weight and taste. But now, thankfully, technology and demand means that there is more and better choice in freeze dried foods. But the lack of fresh food and the limited choice of diet does mean eating remains a chore, part of the daily routine during the three months ... [more]  

2015 Fireball World Championship - The event offers two weeks of unrivalled sailing in the beautiful waters of North Wales. Situated on the Llyn peninsular, just 10 miles from the Snowdonia National Park, racing will take place in Cardigan Bay within easy reach of the sandy beach from where the fleet will launch. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart: Supermaxi Race Start VIDEO *Feature by Dale Lorimer, Sydney
The start of the Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race saw the five 100 foot super maxis up against each other for the first time. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart: Perpetual Loyal forced to retire with hull damage *Feature
2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart: Clouds backs the small boats for overall win
Rolex Sydney to Hobart: Replay video coverage on Sail-World *Feature
Sydney Hobart - Comanche leads but Oats XI keeps the rubber band on
Will Comanche take a scalp?
Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race 2014- Southerly takes its toll
Rolex Sydney Hobart: Comanche leads in softening morning breeze *Feature
Rolex Sydney Hobart - Comanche take a gun to the knife fight + Video
Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race 2014 - Supermaxi contest + Video
Rolex Sydney Hobart: Images from the flying start on Sydney harbour
Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race 2014: Start photos by Andrea Francolini
Sydney Hobart 2014 The Cutting edge Formula 1 yacht still leads
Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race 2014 – Grand dame heads back to Sydney
Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - Day 1 start images by Carlo Borlenghi
Rolex Sydney Hobart: Race Start Images by Crosbie Lorimer *Feature
Clipper Ventures 10 starts Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race
Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - Another year another record
Rolex Sydney Hobart 2014 – Comanche on the warpath
2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart - Spithill to grind on Comanche
Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race – Spinnaker start forecast
Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - Wild Oats XI ready to go   
Adventures of a Sailor Girl: Hobart coverage - December 26 - Live   
Rolex Sydney Hobart - The Peyron Perspective -Old People On New Boats *Feature   
2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart - Spithill to grind on Comanche   
Rolex Sydney Hobart; Wild Oats XI trials Goose for Christmas   
Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race 2014 - The Weather Gate *Feature   
For Christmas a Shiny new Sail-World.com *Feature   
Sydney-Hobart: Wacky Races 3 – Gravel and Red Max versus VMG *Feature   
Yankees at the Gate - A pre Sydney-Hobart conversation with Ken Read *Feature   
Rolex Sydney Hobart: Line Honours Skippers Press Conference - Video   
Barcelona World Race 2014-15 -A different Christmas   
Volvo Ocean Race: Team Vestas Wind recovery video *Feature   
Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race 2014 - Another great journey south   
Sydney Hobart - Ragamuffin's David Witt explains deck failure + Video   
Wild Oats XI - Damage drama in lead-up to Sydney Hobart Race   
Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race images by Photographer Carlo Borlenghi   
Five faces behind the 100ft super maxis by Andrea Francolini   
2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - Everyone's in with a chance   
Comanche Designers talk before Sydney Hobart   
Olympic Sailing Waters - Rio de Janeiro   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT