sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 1, 2013 - KIWI in for a caning?
Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 1, 2013 - KIWI in for a caning?


'Phoning home after a win XL - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3'    Richard Gladwell ©    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: April 30, 2013

Click here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Markets were again flat on equity markets with mixed economic data and some weaker than expected earnings results in the US.

In Europe, EU CPI contracted to 1.2% reflecting negative growth in the zone and the continuance of extended recession/depression. Employment has reached 12.1% across the single market and it is hard to move ahead with so many idle resources directly impacting the consumer. German Consumer Confidence rose to 6.2 but retail sales contracted 2.8%, so domestic demand is no saviour.

The EUR remained firm, trading 1.3150 and the GBP 1.5525, ignoring the expected cut in interest rates by the ECB.

In the US, the Case Shiller Home Price Index rose to a 7 year high of 9.3% boosting hopes of a recovery in this leading sector. Consumer Confidence was also higher, to 68.1, but this good news was dented by the Chicago Manufacturing report which plunged below 50 to 49.

Economic fundamentals continue to disappoint and technicals are now pointing to peaks in the equity markets which coincides with the month of the Bear!

Commodities remain bid and the AUD holds 1.0350 and the KIWI 0.8550. These yield driven, risk currencies will be heavily impacted by any correction in equities and commodities as safety flows to the 'Big Dollar'!

Multihull start - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 2 -  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: April 30, 2013

Equity markets continued the rally in Equities, despite the slew of weak economic data, emanating from a positive European rally. Expectations are that the ECB will cut rates to 0.5% and in addition launch in to a round of QE and an aggressive debt monitisation program. The 'currency wars' have resulted in a recovery in US and Japanese equities and the ECB are considering throwing caution to the wind.

Debt monitisation was a pre-GFC no-no for all Central Banks, as the purchase of your own Government debt to fund ever increasing deficits and debt was seen as economically corrupt. Central Bankers crossed the line and have now abandoned many of the principles of Monetary Policy previously sacrosanct.

The news from Europe should have resulted in further erosion of the value of the single currency but had the opposite effect. The EUR rallied to 1.3100, reacting to the rise in risk appetite and boosted by an increase in commodity demand. The GBP held steady at 1.5480 and all looks positive across Europe with a Government in Italy and the new pro-growth anti-austerity sentiment prevailing.

Forget the critical deficits driving debt to unserviceable levels as interest rates flooded with liquidity should allow this gross delusion to continue. US Equity markets rallied on the back of EU prospects with the S&P hitting new highs as the rally continues. Pending Home Sales rose 1.5% and this was a further sign from the market Gods to pile in!

The Dallas Fed Activity Index plunged 15.6% but this was largely ignored as Bernanke drives investment decisions in search of yield building bubbles. Economic fundamentals have all pointed in the opposite direction and May could be the reality check the market finally needs.

The AUD bounced on further rises in demand for commodities and traded 1.0330 with the KIWI continuing to outperform at 0.8540. Scary times with frenzied yield investment and unprecedented technical levels.

Multihull start - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 2 -  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: April 29, 2013

US GDP data frightened many equity investors as markets fell flat. First quarter growth in the US was 0.4% and an annualised rate of 2.5% below the expected 3%. The news was not surprising as economic fundamentals have been weak all year despite the much vaunted 'housing recovery!'

Data will be out this coming week placing some doubt on market forecasts in the leading indicator that is housing.

This coming week will look closely at this and pay close attention to the Fed's rate decision and the ECB, who are expected to cut rates as Europe continues to battle recession. The EUR held above 1.3000 and the GBP looks set to test 1.5500! Risk appetite has fallen recently despite the continuing flood of liquidity being pumped into the US, Japan and the EC.

The major employment reports will also be released in the US which will probably confirm the stagnation in the worlds largest economy. Commodities remain bid supporting the AUD at 1.0275 but this will be vulnerable to any major equity correction in May!.

The KIWI continues to gain support and has become a market darling trading up around the 0.8500 but this too will suffer uncertainty in Equities and risk markets!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=109043

12:00 PM Wed 1 May 2013GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

01 May 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 30, 2013 - Euro defies gravity
29 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 29, 2013 - KIWI market darling
27 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 26, 2013 - Poms avoid a bath
24 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 24, 2013 - Twitter hack strikes
23 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 23, 2013 - Bulls try hard
21 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 20, 2013 - Week closes quietly
19 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 19, 2013 - Equities tumble more
18 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 18, 2013 - Risk appetite wanes
17 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 17, 2013 - Bomb hits markets
12 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 12, 2013 - KIWI gains more
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World



































ISAF Sailing World Championships - Watch medal races live here by Dan Ibsen, Sail-World Europe & UK editor,








470 Men and Women Worlds - Vadlau and Ogar into pole position by 470 International Association Class,




ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Strong competition for RS:X fleets by Olga Maslivets, International RS:X Class Assoc.,




















Volvo Ocean Race: Win a stopover trip by designing an ECsix T-Shirt
Red Bull 49erFX: On the eve of the Worlds in Santander
America's Cup: Ben Ainslie Racing launches partnership with Yamaha
2014 Chicago Match Cup - Starts tomorrow
Rio 2016 Daylight the issue for Olympic sailing regatta
ISAF Sailing World Championships - USA 470's and Lasers battle at top
ISAF Sailing World Championships - Santander - Day 5 video highlights
ISAF Sailing World Championships - Santander images by Jesús Renedo
PWA Cold Hawaii World Cup - No action on day 2
470 Men and Women Worlds - Game on for Olympic Qualification
ISAF Sailing World Championships: Finns off to slow start in Santander
ISAF Sailing World Championships - Seesaw Day 5 in Santander + Video
ISAF Sailing World Championships - 470 sailors shine in Santander
Royal Cup Marina Ibiza - Kiwi Ray Davies returns to TP52 fleet
Starboard Hatteras Wave Jam - No windsurfing action on day 1
A complete recap of the most successful Melges 20 World Championship
Rolex Big Boat Series - Prizegiving images by Chuck Lantz
ISAF Santander - Upwards path for Austrian women's 470 crew + video
18ft skiffs: Carnage compilation from the glory days of the Grand Prix
ISAF Worlds: Video from the British Sailing Team
Bart's Bash expected to set new records this weekend   
PWA Cold Hawaii World Cup - Marcilio Browne wins Super Session   
470 Men and Women World Championships - Racing abandoned on day 2   
ISAF Sailing World Championships - Day 4 images from Santander   
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander: Emerging Nations Program sailors shine   
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Teasing winds play havoc on day 4   
ISAF Sailing World Championships: Hot conditions in Santander on day 4   
Santander ISAF Sailing World Championships joins Bart’s Bash   
PWA Cold Hawaii World Cup - Grounded fishing boat creates problems   
Marseille One Design - GC32 Armin Strom Sailing Team emerge victorious   
Rolex Big Boat Series 2014 - Ready for another 50 years   
2014 Rolex Big Boat Series - Farr 40 Day 4   
2014 Rolex Swan Cup - Eleventh-hour victories   
Extreme Sailing Series - Kiwis clinch Act win in Istanbul + Video   
2014 Rolex Big Boat Series - Two long races today for the J70 fleet   
2014 Rolex Big Boat Series - Impressive to sail out of the Golden Gate   
Extreme Sailing Series - Istanbul delivers four days of great racing   
ISAF Sailing Worlds Santander - Day 3 images by Sail-World.com   
Extreme Sailing Series: Emirates Team NZ bounces back for series win   
Santander 2014 ISAF Worlds - Light winds and current test six classes   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT