sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 27, 2013 - The Lucky Country?
Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 27, 2013 - The Lucky Country?


'Ninja - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 2'    Richard Gladwell ©    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: June 27, 2013

Click here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Stocks rallied strongly on the inverse trade that has become the new norm. The corrupted economy that has become the market where 'bad news is good' and 'good news is bad' has returned! Speculation that the Fed will backtrack on the tapering has become accepted policy. Hence, US GDP was reviewed back from 2.4% to 1.8%, and the market responded with a big move up in equities!

Weekly Mortgage Applications fell 3% which was icing on the cake for Wall Street. Conviction will not be Bernanke, as he back tracks and holds to the QE policy that has typified his reign. The Dollar remains static with the EUR 1.3010 and the GBP 1.5325. Commodities remain under pressure with energy on the rise and gold lower.

The associated currencies have been resilient with the AUD testing 0.9300 after a leadership spill dumping the incumbent leader. The sheer depth of incompetency in the 'lucky country' has resulted in the least worst option...Rudd! God help the country, after he was dumped for his failures by his colleagues and now is hailed as the Messiah! The KIWI has been testing 0.7800 but risks remain on the downside.

Extreme 40 - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 2 -  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo


Collinson FX market Commentary: June 26, 2013

Questions and doubts arise over the commitment of Bernanke to taper QE as the markets reaction has been extreme. Equities, Bonds and Commodities have all reacted with extreme negativity to the reality of QE reduction and the effect of high interest rates and the impact on the economic recovery has been profound. Bernanke will consider the impact of high interest rates on debt sustainability and will walk back his tapering.

The US economic recovery would stall leading to collapse back in to recession. The DOW rallied as market participants realised the reality and economic news was good. The Case Shiller Home Price Index rose 12.05% and House Sales also improved 2.1%. Durable Goods Orders rose 3.6 and Consumer Confidence hit post-2008 highs. The economic news was greeted with a rally in Equities and Commodities as inverse reaction from the QE effect was reversed.

The EUR held 1.3090 and the GBP 1.5425 were stable with the Dollar steady. The problem remains with the canary Bond Yields which continue to rise despite the news and the back tracking on QE reversal. This is the worry and continued upward pressure will scare the hell out of the Fed! Commodity support resulted in a boost for the associated currencies with the AUD trading 0.9275 and the KIWI 0.7750.

The Central bank policies will determine market moves and focus on long dated US Bonds for warning signals!

AucklandCupDay2-220313 (16) - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 2 -  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo


Collinson FX market Commentary: June 25, 2013

The market rollercoaster continued on steroids with equities, commodities and bonds all being hammered early, only to recover late in US trading. Chinese equities collapsed more than 5%, into bear market territory (20% below year high) amidst a huge credit squeeze as the Government attempt to get control of Monetary Policy.

In the US, the Dow moved in a 250 point trading range and the canary 10 year went up to 2.66%. Commodities took an absolute pasting with Chinese trouble easily translating into lower commodity demand. The VIX volatility index has skyrocketed reflecting the state of all trading markets. The EUR traded 1.3120 and the GBP 1.5440 with a resurgent Dollar. US economic data continues to improve reinforcing the Fed's penchant for tapering which, in turn, frightens the Equity markets.

Commodity volatility has hit the associated currencies with the AUD falling to 0.9150, only to recover back to 0.9275 with the bounce in US Equities. The KIWI dipped below 0.7700 but staged a late recovery to 0.7750.

The huge volatility is likely to continue as markets digest the new Monetary paradigm and the associated impact on economic growth. GDP growth is essential to address the enormous deficits and debt but rising yields will eat up this expansion and force economies back to structural recession.

Central Bank commitment to QE easing will be tested with rising rates and falling equities! This will be what drives markets over the near term!

AucklandCupDay2-220313 (17) - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 2 -  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo


Collinson FX market Commentary: June 24, 2013

Markets closed the week steady after the shock of the Fed's plans to begin to taper QE and terminate in 2014. This has crashed equity markets and sent waves of volatility through bond and currency markets. The AUD has fallen to the 0.91's but by the end of the week had rebounded back to 0.9235 and the KIWI stabilised around 0.7750.

Commodities have taken a pasting and look set to continue to test the downside as reduced QE will strengthen the US Dollar and China looks set to continue the recent credit squeeze. Chinese authorities are looking to temper the cash binge with higher rates and tight monetary policies. The squeeze will curb growth from the heady double digit growth rates back to a reasonable 7%.

This will have a knock on effect on commodity prices which will impact associated currencies. This has already manifested in the AUD which has fallen more than 10% in recent weeks. This week will continue to focus on Central Bank policies from China and Japan to the FED and ECB.

Economic data will have a secondary impact with housing data out in the US and GDP growth rates in Europe and the US. Look for a continuation of volatility as the addict weans itself off the drugs!

Watch out for the Monetary DT's!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=111283

10:03 PM Wed 26 Jun 2013GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

25 Jun 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 25, 2013 - Roller coaster market
22 Jun 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 21, 2013 - Fed spooks markets
20 Jun 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 20, 2013 - ANZAC's drop back
19 Jun 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 19,2013 - Weaker Oz outlook
18 Jun 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 18,2013 - Bulls emerge refreshed
06 Jun 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 6, 2013 - AUD crashes, KIWI down
05 Jun 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 5, 2013 - KIWI drops again
04 Jun 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 4, 2013 - AUD vulnerable
02 Jun 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 1, 2013 - Backwards and forwards
01 Jun 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 31, 2013 - Riding a rollercoaster
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World





































Formula Windsurfing Youth and Master Worlds overall by International Windsurfing Association,












Bakewell-White supermaxi designed to take Transpac's Barn Door Trophy *Feature by Richard Gladwell Ssail-World.com/nz,


















PWA Awaza World Cup - Cyril Moussilmani and Delphine Cousin on top
Foiling Week - Moth Class Italian Open Championship Day 2
America's Cup: Luna Rossa foiling in AC45s at their Italian base
Star World Championship - Germans claim dramatic win in Malcesine
PWA Awaza World Cup - Down to the wire in Turkmenistan
Route Halifax Saint-Pierre - Off to France!
Nacra 17 Europeans - La Grande Motte back in Olympic classes arena
Stena Match Cup Sweden - Hansen hat trick in Marstrand + Video
Route Halifax Saint-Pierre Race keeps an eye on Arthur
World Match Racing Tour: See the Finals replay at the Stena Match Cup
Newport International Boat Show unveils exciting 'At The Helm' Program
Stena Match Cup Sweden - First blood to Hansen over Canfield + Video
Star World Championship - Americans claim race win in Malcesine
PWA Awaza World Cup - Weather halts action on day 4
Clipper Race - Henri Lloyd wins OneDLL Cup into Den Helder
Clipper Race - Close match racing in closing stages of the OneDLL Cup
Volvo Ocean Race: Spanish play catch-up with under 100 days to go
World Match Racing Tour: Catch the live action at the Stena Match Cup
Finn Junior Worlds - Battle for the Jorge Bruder Silver Cup
Mobiles drive traffic - 72% increase in Sail-World.com page view *Feature
British Open Dragon Championship finale at Royal Lymington preview   
2014 Cape Panwa Hotel Phuket Raceweek - Phuket is ready to host   
PWA Awaza World Cup - Valerie Ghibaudo hits back on day 3   
Star World Championship - Hard fought win on day 4 + Video   
Stena Match Cup Sweden - Action-packed match racing + Video   
Oceans of Hope yacht arrives in Portsmouth   
Bell's Beer Bayview Mackinac Race - Registration details   
RORC Transatlantic Race - Polishing up the silver   
Vic-Maui International Yacht Race - First start to lead off busy day   
Anna Tunnicliffe competing at the CrossFit Mid-Atlantics + Video   
18ft Skiff Europeans: Winning days at Lake Garda   
Clipper Race - Choppy conditions as fleet closes in on Den Helder   
Lightning Youth World Championship - Final day   
2014 Star Class World Championship - Day 3   
America's Cup: Dean Barker interviewed on the current state of the Cup   
PWA Awaza World Cup - Delphine Cousin draws first blood   
Stena Match Cup Sweden - On a roll in Marstrand + Video   
Star World Championship - Frustrating day 3 rocks the fleet   
Maxi Yacht Rolex Cup - Rendezvous returns August 31st   
ISAF seeks modern catamaran for future Youth Worlds editions   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL WAS US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT