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Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: February 26, 2013 - DOW nears high
Collinson FX Market Commentary: February 26, 2013 - DOW nears high


'RAG & FAMISH HOTEL had to finish within 1st 3 placings of today’s race and ahead of Gotta Luv it 7 to win Championships - 18ft Skiff JJ Giltinan Championships2013 - Race 7'    Beth Morley    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: February 26, 2013

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The DOW looked set to challenge the all time high early but was pegged back by political news from Europe and the fallout from sequestration domestically. Italy's election look set to surprise with the phoenix of Berlusconi rising once again. This is a threat to the austerity policies employed by the current civilian leadership.

The ramifications could be severe with Italian and Spanish bonds being the canary in the mine. Moody's downgraded the UK's cherished 'AAA' status which sent jitters across Europe with the overwhelming debt levels taking its toll. The recession rolls on and looks set to continue for some time as little has been done to address the deficit and debt crises. The EUR reacted accordingly falling back to 1.3090 and the GBP 1.5140.

In the US, sequestration threatens economic growth although this is just another manufactured crises with conception in the Whitehouse. Obama has made an art of crises management, politicizing the problem only to push for favourable outcomes at last minute crises meetings. He is again pushing for higher taxes to expand the socialisation of big Government society.

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index contracted and the Dallas Fed revealed Manufacturing suffered a further blow. Economic news has been weak contradicting the surge in Equities fueled by the flood of cash courtesy of QE infinity. Political and Economic turmoil looks set to continue in the worlds largest trading zones.

Europe is mired in uncertainty and the US swamped in drama from Obama. Risk aversion hit the AUD falling back to 1.0250 and the KIWI remaining below 0.8400 once again. Technicals continue to issue alerts as equities and currencies fail to break through ever strengthening ceilings.

C-Tech finished in 2nd place 34 seconds behind Gotta Love It 7 in Heat 7 - 18ft Skiff JJ Giltinan Championships2013 - Race 7 -  Beth Morley   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: February 25, 2013

US Equity markets wiped out the weeks losses with a Friday surge sparked by some good economic news from Europe and some pro-QE statements from St Louis Fed Chairman.

In Europe German IFO Business Climate rose to a 3 year high although exports and imports contracted. A German recovery could spark a recovery in Europe but these assumptions ignore the harsh economic realities. In the US, James Bullard suggested QE was here for a 'long time' which reassured many frightened by earlier statements questioning the impact of QE Infinity.

The EUR remained weak at 1.3185 and the GBP 1.5175. The recovery of risk-appetite softened the Dollar against the commodity currencies with the AUD retesting 1.0300 and the KIWI back to 0.8348. A flood of economic data from Europe and the US will drive markets in the coming week.

A good look at GDP growth an Employment with a closer look at US Housing. Can the Bulls ignore economic reality?


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by Collinson FX

  

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7:24 PM Mon 25 Feb 2013GMT


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News - USA and the World

With the front runners in the Rolex Sydney Hobart expected to sneak through in light to moderate tail winds, the weather prognosis for the remainder of the fleet is, well, interesting. The simple analysis is that fresh northerly winds will give the fleet a fast ride on Sunday and during the daylight hours of Monday. ... [more]  

Wild Oats XI (Oatley family) is expected to cross the finish line, around 4pm on Sunday and take her eighth line honours win. The race leaders are making good time down the coast of Tasmania, and at daybreak had approximately 100nm to sail. ... [more]  

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Sydney to Hobart - Another 40 foot white-wash? by Rob Kothe and the Sail-World team
With the Supermaxi battle probably all over in this 70th Rolex Sydney to Hobart race, unless Wild Oats XI drops her rig in the next five hours, she is set to take her eighth line honours victory so at last the attention will shift to the real race, the battle for handicap honours. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart: Your Turn, Then My Turn, Then Your Turn! *Feature by Crosbie Lorimer, Hobart, Tasmania
With the front runners over halfway to Hobart, this year’s race is turning out to be quite a page turner already; and that’s just the big boats. So let’s start with them. Wind back to the start, first honours to Comanche in the shoot out to the first mark. To be fair it was akin to pitting a brand new Bugatti Veyron against some classy and quick Ferraris and Porsches. The result in those ... [more]  

There is absolutely no way anyone can predict these before the vast majority of the still 109 vessels racing actually get home to Hobart Town. One can, however, talk about the very things that do go into making these results that so many chase and to do so, we have to work through a myriad of vessel designs, ages and types. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart 2014; Handicap Honours Predictions VIDEO *Feature by Dale Lorimer, Hobart, Tasmania
Given the weather models for the race, Crosbie Lorimer did the rounds of the CYCA dock just prior to the start of the race to find out who the various skippers, navigators and tacticians believed might take out the overall Handicap win on IRC. Here are some of their predictions, how they are panning out for some and an update on the position at the front of the fleet. ... [more]  

Sydney Hobart 2014 - A ridge too far for Comanche by Bruce Montgomery, RSHYR Media
2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - That’s the conclusion that one might well draw from the huge difference in the performance of the Hamilton Island super maxi Wild Oats XI and her main challenger, the US boat Comanche. ... [more]  

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2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - The chase for line honours at the 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race is intensifying with the leading boats approaching the halfway mark of the 628-nm race. ... [more]  

By Grand Prix ocean racing standards she’s an old girl, and there’s no denying she’s had a few makeovers during the past decade, but Bob Oatley’s 30-metre long supermaxi, Wild Oats XI, was leaving no doubt today that when it came to speed she’s still got great legs. ... [more]  

2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - After 24 hours the Hamilton Island supermaxi Wild Oats XI has taken the lead for the first time in the Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race, the 70th sailing of the event. ... [more]  

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Rolex Sydney Hobart: Supermaxi Race Start VIDEO *Feature by Dale Lorimer, Sydney
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The Australian supermaxi Perpetual Loyal has been forced to retire from the 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race, with hull damage. The news came in a regular radio sked with race organisers, little detail was available, however it is understood that she has some hull delamination, probably arising from pounding though big seas and 25-30kt winds for the first day and night of the race. ... [more]  

Clouds outlines what he is expecting to see in the race, and says that while the big boats will take all the attention in the early stages of the race, the weather is against them as the race progresses. The smaller boats will come surfing in a fresh northerly, while the front-runners cope with light winds on their final approach to the finish on the Derwent. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney to Hobart: Replay video coverage on Sail-World *Feature by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz
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Will Comanche take a scalp? by Rob Kothe and the Sail-World Team
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Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - Day 1 start images by photographer Carlo Borlenghi ... [more]  

One of the largest fleets in many years started the 70th Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race today in a building southerly and in bright sunshine. There seemed to be some mind games going on amongst the super maxis during the pre race dry runs as each in turn put in a single reef in the 30 minutes before the start. Possibly there was some tossing of the coin as to whether it was ... [more]  

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