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Collinson FX Market Commentary- October 25, 2012 - Markets steady

by Collinson FX on 25 Oct 2012
Image of the Day Ran Tan in strife after the start of the 2012 Coastal Classic © Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX market Commentary: October 25, 2012

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Markets remain steady awaiting major economic or political events this side of the Presidential election. European economic data continues to disappoint with the PMI falling to three year lows, level with the Post-GFC Recession.

Greece has announced a moratorium on austerity caveats enabling them to continue to blow-out any and all Bailout targets and still receive funding from the EC. The decision must be based on the premise that anything and all must and will be done to prevent the first shoe to drop!

The sheer desperation is astounding and the costs to the EC undisclosed. In Asia the Chinese PMI contracted for the 12th straight month still operating below 50. The AUD contradicted other risk aversion with a strong move back to 1.0350. This was due to a surprising blow-out in inflation data. The CPI rose 1.4% for the quarter and 2.0% for the year.

This is due, in the main, to the flow on effects of the Governments Carbon Tax. The Carbon Tax effects major Carbon producers but necessarily raises the price of electricity across the board. Electricity and Gas have risen over 15% for the quarter, which is the biggest rise ever recorded! It is the flow through of these cost that are impacting the economy as this is a universally pervasive tax. This continued inflationary pressures have increased the cost of living to a struggling citizenship and terminally affected Manufacturing relying on electricity and gas. Ironically, Government reports an increase in future carbon emissions and with rising global coal exports, rising Global Carbon emissions! A planned hatched in Academic Heaven and endorsed by naive liberal acolytes.

In the US, New Home Sales rose 5.7% although Weekly Mortgage Applications fell 12%. The Feds two day meeting ended with no interest rate change and an endorsement of Operation Twist and QE Infinity. Growth was moderate with record low interest rates to continue to mid-2015. Nothing new from the Fed with rumours flying of the impending resignation of Bernanke whatever the election result.

The EUR continued to trade below 1.3000 although the GBP rallied to 1.6030. EU Debt crises developments and the Presidential elections will dominate markets for the next two weeks although many will watch the RBNZ and their penchant for positive pro-active policy!?


Collinson FX market Commentary: October 24, 2012

Equity markets plunged overnight with growing fears from Europe and disappointing corporate earnings from the US. In Europe, S&P downgraded some regional Governments in Spain while news that the economy is contracting at a greater pace than expected.

The third quarter GDP contracted at 1.7% after austerity had hit the second quarter by 1.3%! The enormous collapse in growth as a direct result of austerity measures will push panic buttons across Europe. The medicine prescribed has the collateral damage that will impact these nations socially with citizens rioting the hardship. This should serve as a stern warning to the US and the track they have been on.

It should drive voters away from the failed policies of the left with the spend and borrow mentality fueled by corrupted Keynsian economics. The EUR dropped below 1.3000 and the GBP under 1.6000 as confidence collapsed. The Reserve Bank of Canada left rates unchanged as the Fed met for their two day meeting. Expectations are for no further action reliant on QE Infinity!

The AUD fell back to 1.0250 and the KIWI to 0.8115 with risk appetite hemorrhaging with Australian Leading Index failing 0.8%.

The digestion of the Australian Mid-Year Budget update is seen as the 'shuffling of the deck chairs on board the Titanic' to many commentators!


Collinson FX market Commentary: October 22, 2012

Markets continued to retreat after Fridays big falls. In Europe, Spanish regional elections have done little to impact the EUR which traded 1.0350 and the GBP 1.6000.

Eurozone Debt to GDP rose to 87.3% which is closing fast upon the magical 100% which has lead to many individual national crises. In the US, markets were lower after further weak Corporate earnings and confidence on the slide. The focus is on the fast approaching Presidential Elections and the final Presidential debate overnight.

In Asia the mood was set with deteriorating Trade data from Japan with Exports declining over 10% and Imports on the rise.

In Australia, the Government has released a mid-year Budget update early to avoid inclusion of declining revenues form an economy impacting by falling global demand. The AUD held 1.0300 after the announcement, although does look vulnerable to the Global instability. The KIWI continues to trade around the 0.8150 levels.

Focus today will be political in Europe and especially the US!


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