Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- June 18, 2014 - AUD loses ground

by Collinson FX on 19 Jun 2014
Wired and Vamos start the way they will finish as the leave the Waitemata harbour - 2014 ANZ Fiji race. © Richard Gladwell www.richardgladwell.com
Collinson FX market Commentary: June 18, 2014

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

The FOMC meeting began today and promised the status quo. Yellen is a renown dove and will continue the expansionist monetary policy but her worst nightmare is inflation! The US CPI moved north to 0.3%, which is not a lot, but marginally this can be quite unsettling.

The problem with the CPI, is that it fails to measure the real drivers of cost-of-living, thus sending shivers through the Fed.

The EUR remains under extreme pressure, trading 1.3540, while the GBP retraced from 1.7000. European economic sentiment advanced, with the all-important ZEW Sentiment Index, leading the new EU ZEW report.

The AUD has lost ground and looks vulnerable, around the 0.9340 mark, while the KIWI has settled around 0.8650. The carry trade has the potential to overwhelm the fears over economic contraction in the NZ economy.


Collinson FX market Commentary: June 17, 2014

Equity markets opened the week mixed, after retreating from all-time record highs in previous trading, due to Geo-political threats from Iraq and the Ukraine and a tepid global economic growth. The upheaval in the Middle East and Europe could drive market volatility, with the VIX on the rise, depending on developments. In the US, Industrial Production rose 0.6% and the Empire State Manufacturing survey beat expectations, slightly. This balanced the negativity driving Oil higher from the Middle East drama.

The EUR remains weak, trading 1.3550, while the GBP looks to test the big, big figure of 1.7000. European inflation is non-existent and in fact deflation is now the problem the ECB is wrestling with. The KIWI's meteoric rise, due entirely to the RBNZ, and the corresponding rise in interest rates is having an impact. Consumer Confidence slipped and House Prices contracted 1.2% for the month and 14.8% for the year.

The economy is now starting to show the effects of RBNZ aggressive policies contradicting trading partners monetary policy. The AUD continues to trade steadily around 0.9400 and look forward to Central Bank activity in the US and locally.

The RBA is set to release minutes which will be an insight to the state of the domestic economy. Central Banks and Geo-Political events will continue to drive the markets.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 24 - Brit's sentimental slowdown
The AUD traded down to 0.7450, while the KIWI consolidated below 0.7000 There may be signs of a slowdown in the British economy as the Composite and Services PMI both plunged, while EU data held steady. This is not as a result of actual circumstances changing but sentiment.
Posted on 25 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 22 - RBNZ's words undermine NZD
The AUD slipped below 0.7500, while the NZD surrendered the huge number of 0.7000 The AUD slipped below 0.7500, while the NZD surrendered the huge number of 0.7000, undermined by the RBNZ statement telegraphing further interest rate cuts.
Posted on 22 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 21 - It's official, No slowdown
The AUD remains below 0.7500, while the NZD battles to hold the very big number of 0.7000 Oil fell to $45/barrel, leading a raft of commodities lower, putting a ceiling on associated currencies. The AUD remains below 0.7500, while the NZD battles to hold the very big number of 0.7000. Central Bank intentions in Australia and NZ are clear, with NZ LVR's, clearing the decks in preparation for rate cuts.
Posted on 22 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 20 - Markets make full recovery
The AUD trades below 0.7500, while the NZD is headed towards 0.7000 RBA minutes provided a great summary of global economic conditions and how they impact the Australian situation. The RBA considered the impact of the Brexit and recognised that markets were back to pre-brexit levels, except the GBP
Posted on 20 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - 19 July - Brexit a boon for Brits?
NZ CPI came in at 0.4%, for Q2, missing expectations. This pushed the currency below 0.7100 The tumultuous weekend of terrorism in France and a failed coup in Turkey failed to unsettle markets. Equities and currencies commenced the week quietly with the USD settling and share markets perched just below highs. QE has provided massive amounts of cheap money to supply equity markets
Posted on 19 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 16/17 - French attack hits USD
The NZD was undermined by the RBNZ commentary, which enhanced the effect of a rising reserve The NZD was undermined by the RBNZ commentary, which enhanced the effect of a rising reserve, with the KIWI drifting back towards 0.7100. Geo-Political events are overwhelming economic events, while Central Bank intervention has driven market moves, filling the space of vacuous global fiscal policies.
Posted on 18 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 15 - RBNZ's surprise adjustment
The RBNZ surprised many, with an adjustment between cycles The RBNZ surprised many, with an adjustment between cycles, allowing commentary to drive the currency back below 0.7200. The RBNZ never seem to quite get it right in the Monetary Policy realm and this interruption is a correction of the last, ham-fisted, statement
Posted on 14 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 13 - Pound surges on confidence
The uncertainty is dissipating and markets are reacting accordingly The GBP surged, with new confidence, pushing to 1.3250. The Japanese PM, Abe, ordered further stimulus from the Bank of Japan and the Yen jumped to 104.75. The Australian Liberals met in Canberra and are awaiting a new cabinet selected by PM, Turnbull. The uncertainty is dissipating and markets are reacting accordingly
Posted on 13 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 12 - Commodities and Oil drop
Commodities drifted lower, with Oil falling below $45/barrel, pushing the associated currencies back. Commodities drifted lower, with Oil falling below $45/barrel, pushing the associated currencies back. The AUD traded 0.7525, while the NZD attempts to hold 0.7200. Markets are calm but expect further Central Bank influence over a relatively quiet economic data release week.
Posted on 13 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 9 - RBNZ's dance macabre
The NZD continued to surge, testing 0.7300, following the 'dance macabre' of the RBNZ Chinese data is also due for release but no surprises are expected, as usual! The NZD continued to surge, testing 0.7300, following the 'dance macabre' of the RBNZ. The AUD traded up to 0.7575, while the USD was steady, with the EUR 1.1050 and the GBP 1.2950. The Bank of Japan's inaction, with the JPY trading 100.50, will no doubt be rectified in the short term!
Posted on 12 Jul