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Collinson FX Market Commentary- June 18, 2014 - AUD loses ground

by Collinson FX on 19 Jun 2014
Wired and Vamos start the way they will finish as the leave the Waitemata harbour - 2014 ANZ Fiji race. Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz
Collinson FX market Commentary: June 18, 2014

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The FOMC meeting began today and promised the status quo. Yellen is a renown dove and will continue the expansionist monetary policy but her worst nightmare is inflation! The US CPI moved north to 0.3%, which is not a lot, but marginally this can be quite unsettling.

The problem with the CPI, is that it fails to measure the real drivers of cost-of-living, thus sending shivers through the Fed.

The EUR remains under extreme pressure, trading 1.3540, while the GBP retraced from 1.7000. European economic sentiment advanced, with the all-important ZEW Sentiment Index, leading the new EU ZEW report.

The AUD has lost ground and looks vulnerable, around the 0.9340 mark, while the KIWI has settled around 0.8650. The carry trade has the potential to overwhelm the fears over economic contraction in the NZ economy.


Collinson FX market Commentary: June 17, 2014

Equity markets opened the week mixed, after retreating from all-time record highs in previous trading, due to Geo-political threats from Iraq and the Ukraine and a tepid global economic growth. The upheaval in the Middle East and Europe could drive market volatility, with the VIX on the rise, depending on developments. In the US, Industrial Production rose 0.6% and the Empire State Manufacturing survey beat expectations, slightly. This balanced the negativity driving Oil higher from the Middle East drama.

The EUR remains weak, trading 1.3550, while the GBP looks to test the big, big figure of 1.7000. European inflation is non-existent and in fact deflation is now the problem the ECB is wrestling with. The KIWI's meteoric rise, due entirely to the RBNZ, and the corresponding rise in interest rates is having an impact. Consumer Confidence slipped and House Prices contracted 1.2% for the month and 14.8% for the year.

The economy is now starting to show the effects of RBNZ aggressive policies contradicting trading partners monetary policy. The AUD continues to trade steadily around 0.9400 and look forward to Central Bank activity in the US and locally.

The RBA is set to release minutes which will be an insight to the state of the domestic economy. Central Banks and Geo-Political events will continue to drive the markets.

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