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Collinson FX Market Commentary- July 4, 2013 - Egypt pushes Oil up

by Collinson FX on 5 Jul 2013
Elliott 7 - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3 © Richard Gladwell www.richardgladwell.com

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 4, 2013

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Business as usual in the Middle East as the Egyptian Military, for some reason, did not like their elected Muslim brotherhood President!?

Egypt has been a moderate voice in a world of extremists so attention must be paid to political upheaval. Oil up! This does have implications on global economies as uncertainty breeds volatility and more importantly, higher Oil prices. In Europe, the departure of a coalition partner to the ruling Portugese governing body has been unsettling and sends murmurs through the single market. Uncertain times have not effected the US markets as investors look to safety with equities and commodities rising.

The EUR has regained 1.3000 and the GBP 1.5275, with Services PMI data flat in the EU and further gains from the Manufacturing improvements from the UK. The ADP Private Sector Jobs reported an improvement of 188,000, which points to a stronger than expected Non-Farm Payrolls Friday.The good news was eaten up by the bulls who have resumed control of equity markets, but this will also reinforce Bernankes QE tapering which may impact negatively.

The AUD continues to test lower limits, trading around 0.9050, with capital divestment prominant and reflected in the declining local bourse. Political turmoil has continued with Rudd resuming the captaincy with similar success to the cricket team!

The KIWI has also been tarnished and trades around 0.7750, but may well test the downside big figure. Political instability and uncertain economic conditions do not bode well for global markets but attention will continue to focus on Central Bank activity.

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 3, 2013

Equity markets were travelling well through Asian and European markets, although chatter surrounding Portugal and rumours regarding Greece, swept across markets to dampen enthusiasm. Equities in the US plunged into the red, after Fed member Dudley appeared to confirm tapering, albeit with a different data matrix. This also gave new legs to the Dollar, with the EUR down below 1.3000 and the GBP 1.5150. Energy prices were on the rise, but from Middle East upheaval, rather than demand.

Commodities retraced and bonds settled with US Factory Orders steady but economic optimism falling. Central Bank influence continues to remain primary and overrules data. The all important job numbers are expected to deliver 165,000 new jobs by Friday but this may be interpreted as a green light for QE tapering, thus cause an equity slump. Hard to pick with the markets so corrupted by Central banks!

The RBA left rates unchanged due to the recent 12 cent fall in the AUD, which has reset the economy, achieving what the RBA has been attempting to do with recent cuts. The AUD was lower as the dovish bias continues and this was exaggerated by the rise in the USD.

The AUD traded just over 0.9100 and the KIWI dropped back towards 0.7700 looking vulnerable on taper talk. Central Banks continue to dominate market direction and this will continue with the ECB and B of E announcing Thursday but Jobs will have impact one way or the other!



Collinson FX market Commentary: July 2, 2013

US equity markets continued to rally after positive economic data embraced the economy. The important ISM Manufacturing report broached the significant 50 level, rising from 49 to 50.9, and Construction spending also rose, boding well for the US economy. Bond yields settled as economic data had a positive impact with the Fed taking a back seat. Earlier mixed news from Asia, with the Chinese Manufacturing PMI drifting lower, although the important Japanese Tankan report revealed big improvements in large Manufacturing. European PMI was mixed with rises in Italy and France but a fall in Germany. Unemployment pinched higher from 12.0% to 12.1%.

The Dollar was steady against the single currency holding above 1.3050 and the GBP 1.5215. US markets are interpreting positive news coherently so far this week but will follow the Employment reports closely. Commodities rose and this was reflected in the associated currencies with the AUD rebounding to 0.9225 and the KIWI just under 0.7800.

The RBA rate decision will be focal, with a slant towards loosening in the language, but expectations for actual rate cuts are low. Language from the ECB and B of E will be crucial later in the week and any observations by Fed members will be important.

Employment data in the States will be critical to market moves for the remainder of a shortened, holiday week in the US.

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