Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- July 20, 2013 - Flat Markets end week

by Collinson FX on 20 Jul 2013
Elliott 7’s - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3 © Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 20, 2013

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Markets were flat again Friday to close a mixed week with no major economic data releases and quiet Central bankers. The emphasis thus shifted to earnings and a couple of major scares with Microsoft and Google both missing expectations...

Microsoft especially was concerning and had a negative impact on the equity markets. The Dollar was steady with thin trade with the EUR trading 1.3150 and the GBP 1.5270. Commodities remained solid with firm demand supporting a strong KIWI up at 0.7950 and the AUD which regained 0.9200 after earlier slippage.

The new week will focus on US Housing and some Manufacturinf data from China. Locally, the RBNZ will make a rate decision later in the week which will impact locally and give an idea of the state of the economy through the eyes of the Central Bank.

Monetary Policy continues to dominate markets as fiscal ineptitude remains globally prevalent!


Collinson FX market Commentary: July 18, 2013

Bernanke is 'gone-burger' and so he is unlikely to change his leopards spots! His long awaited appearance in front of congress revealed little in terms of QE and thus the markets remained steady. The Fed is the great driver of equities, commodites and bonds and Bernanke is unlikely to change his course before he cashes in his chips.

He will continue QE infinity because that is his legacy which will be considered destructive when history has the consideration. The EUR was steady at 1.3115 and the GBP inched higher to 1.5200 with a decline in US weekly Mortgage Applications and dip in housing data. Housing Starts fell 9.9% and Building Permits also dropped 7.5%, hitting the major leading indicator.

The Fed continues to support the 'Claytons rally' as economic fundamentals re-confirm the state of the economic recovery. Commodities remain steady and the AUD has traded 0.9250 with the KIWI approaching 0.7900.

No real changes, but continued weak economic data undermines the reality of all the equity gains. Central Banks remain the major directional driver and weak economic data only reinforces market perceptions of enhanced monetary policy. This is a false rally and bulls should be very nervous!


Collinson FX market Commentary: July 16, 2013

Equity rallies continued on Wall Street with Citi leading the Financials by beating earnings expectations.

The Banks must make money given the highly advantageous environment the Fed continues to provide. The Empire State Manufacturing data rose, improving this sector and allaying fears in this critically challenged sector. Retail Sales rose 0.4%, which was not convincing, and missed analysts expectations and should scare many investors as it is the Consumer that drives the US economy.

The EUR held Fridays gains trading 1.3060 and the GBP 1.5100. Chinese GDP fell to 7.5 from 7.7%, well below the heady days of double figure increases. This is the new norm as the regime tries to gain control of growth and manage the expansion of the new global economic super-power. The realigned economy will provide steady demand but has turned the commodity price bubble accounting for a massive correction in associated currencies.

The AUD has fallen a long way in a short time, but has now established a solid floor at 0.9000 which has become a major support level. The currency stabilised overnight just under the 0.9100 after another hit in US trading to close last week.

The KIWI has also touched 0.7800 after again looking to test the major support level of 0.7700. These currencies remain vulnerable to any hits taken in commodity demand from China who, in turn, remain heavily exposed to Europe and the US!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 17 - Bullish markets in US
The AUD was softened by the news, slipping below 0.7700, while the NZD jumped to 0.7225 Australian Employment data was mixed, with Unemployment falling to 5.7%, but this was tempered by a fall in full time employment. The AUD was softened by the news, slipping below 0.7700, while the NZD jumped to 0.7225. Markets are very bullish and this is likely to continue, although action must follow rhetoric in the US.
Posted on 17 Feb
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 16 - Markets have a gay day
AUD looking at 0.7700, while the NZD jumped to 0.7200 The market rally continued with gay abandon, while Trump met with BB Netanyahu at the White House, turning his attention to a peace solution in the Middle East. He also found time to meet with Retailers, for the first time, which was welcomed with a strong rally in Retail Sales.
Posted on 16 Feb
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 15 - US touts interest rate rise
The AUD slipped back to 0.7640, while the NZD dipped below 0.7150, also hit by a bullish reserve. Fed President Yellen made her bi-annual appearance in front of congress informing them of expected rate rises during the current year. She cited growth and inflation as the reason for interest rate rises and that it would be wise to address them sooner rather than later.
Posted on 14 Feb
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 11 - Kiwi flounders as AUS surges
The blow dealt by the RBNZ has been sustained, with the currency floundering below 0.7200 The blow dealt by the RBNZ has been sustained, with the currency floundering below 0.7200, while the AUD marches towards 0.7700. This has provoked a sudden and substantial reversal in the cross rate. The coming week sees an avalanche of global economic data releases although it is hard to see Trump not dominating markets.
Posted on 11 Feb
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 10 - NZD collapses on RBNZ stall
The NZD fell from above 0.7300, to trade 0.7175; the AUD remained steady, trading around 0.7625 The RBNZ left rates unchanged, in their latest Monetary statement, shifting the bias from easing to neutral. Many expected a more bullish approach to interest rates, but the Central Bank predicted no action until 2019. This did not gel with reality. This reading of the monetary situation triggered a collapse in the NZD, which fell from above 0.7300, to trade 0.7175!
Posted on 10 Feb
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 9 - All quiet on US front
The Dollar was steady, with the EUR trading below 1.0700, while the Yen holds around 112.00. A quiet night of trade on equity and currency markets with little economic data releases or action on the Trump front. Trump is still immersed in the immigration ban and pushing for his Cabinet approvals in the Senate. You can't keep a good man down for long so we can expect more fireworks to impact markets.
Posted on 9 Feb
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 8 - No rates move from RBA
The AUD drifted lower to 0.7625, while the NZD consolidated above 0.7300, boosted by a strong inflation report. The RBA left rates unchanged, as expected, leaving the interest rate differential the potential to close on Fed rate rises. The AUD drifted lower to 0.7625, while the NZD consolidated above 0.7300, boosted by a strong inflation report. The NZ Dairy auction also booked marginal gains, allowing the currency some license, on the upside.
Posted on 7 Feb
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 7 - AUD depressed ahead of RBA
The AUD traded around 0.7650, depressed after weak Retail numbers, ahead of the RBA rate decision. The AUD traded around 0.7650, depressed after weak Retail numbers, ahead of the RBA rate decision. The Central Bank has left rates unchanged for months and no action is expected. The NZD tests 0.7300 and is likely to trade on reserve strength with some local Central Bank speculation to drive daily moves.
Posted on 6 Feb
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 4 - Jobs jump in US
Commodity currencies were steady, with the AUD holding 0.7570, while the KIWI pushed 0.7300. Commodity currencies were steady, with the AUD holding 0.7570, while the KIWI pushed 0.7300. The coming week will deliver decisions from the RBA and RBNZ, although expectations are low, for any action. The US is looking at rate rises in the coming year, which will filter through to local trans-Tasman Central Banks, but not until later in the year.
Posted on 6 Feb
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 3 - USD and GBP soften
NZD pushed towards 0.7300, boosted by a weaker reserve, while the AUD stabilised (0.7570) after bullish trade data. The Dollar was not assisted by the Challenger Jobs Report, which reflected a jump in retail job cuts, ahead of the all important Non Farm Payrolls tonight. The NZD continued to push towards 0.7300, boosted by a weaker reserve, while the AUD stabilised (0.7570) after bullish trade data.
Posted on 2 Feb