Please select your home edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- July 18, 2013 - ANZAC gap closes

by Collinson FX on 18 Jul 2013
V5 - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3 © Richard Gladwell

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 18, 2013!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Bernanke is 'gone-burger' and so he is unlikely to change his leopards spots! His long awaited appearance in front of congress revealed little in terms of QE and thus the markets remained steady. The Fed is the great driver of equities, commodites and bonds and Bernanke is unlikely to change his course before he cashes in his chips.

He will continue QE infinity because that is his legacy which will be considered destructive when history has the consideration. The EUR was steady at 1.3115 and the GBP inched higher to 1.5200 with a decline in US weekly Mortgage Applications and dip in housing data. Housing Starts fell 9.9% and Building Permits also dropped 7.5%, hitting the major leading indicator.

The Fed continues to support the 'Claytons rally' as economic fundamentals re-confirm the state of the economic recovery. Commodities remain steady and the AUD has traded 0.9250 with the KIWI approaching 0.7900.

No real changes, but continued weak economic data undermines the reality of all the equity gains. Central Banks remain the major directional driver and weak economic data only reinforces market perceptions of enhanced monetary policy. This is a false rally and bulls should be very nervous!

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 16, 2013

Equity rallies continued on Wall Street with Citi leading the Financials by beating earnings expectations.

The Banks must make money given the highly advantageous environment the Fed continues to provide. The Empire State Manufacturing data rose, improving this sector and allaying fears in this critically challenged sector. Retail Sales rose 0.4%, which was not convincing, and missed analysts expectations and should scare many investors as it is the Consumer that drives the US economy.

The EUR held Fridays gains trading 1.3060 and the GBP 1.5100. Chinese GDP fell to 7.5 from 7.7%, well below the heady days of double figure increases. This is the new norm as the regime tries to gain control of growth and manage the expansion of the new global economic super-power. The realigned economy will provide steady demand but has turned the commodity price bubble accounting for a massive correction in associated currencies.

The AUD has fallen a long way in a short time, but has now established a solid floor at 0.9000 which has become a major support level. The currency stabilised overnight just under the 0.9100 after another hit in US trading to close last week.

The KIWI has also touched 0.7800 after again looking to test the major support level of 0.7700. These currencies remain vulnerable to any hits taken in commodity demand from China who, in turn, remain heavily exposed to Europe and the US!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see: and

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |

Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 21 -
. .
Posted on 19 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 15 - Positive sign from US sales
AUD breaks back above 0.7600, while the NZD looks towards 0.7100 again US Retail Sales met expectations and were positive! This gave the markets some enthusiasm and lead to further speculation for the much vaunted Fed interest rate rise. This took the shine off the equity rally. The University of Michigan confidence report was decidedly negative
Posted on 17 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 14 - Chinese exports crash
The NZD rallied back towards 0.7100, while the AUD floundered around 0.7560, reversing the recent cross rate moves. Chinese Trade data dominated global markets overnight, with little economic data release of import, in Europe or the USA. Chinese exports crashed 10% for the month (5.6%p.a.), while imports fell 1.9%. The dreadful trade data confirmed the weak global demand for the world factories product.
Posted on 14 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 13- It's the US economy, Stupid!
The AUD has ceded 0.7600, now trading 0.7560, while the KIWI tried to build a firewall above 0.7000. Current US GDP growth is a depressing 1%, with all reviews on the downside, reflecting the parlous state of the economy. The Fed telegraphed four rate rises this year and none have eventuated so it is hard to believe the rhetoric.
Posted on 14 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 12- Light week grinds idle minds
AUD dipping to 0.7540, while the NZD dipped to 0.7050 The EUR slipped to 1.1050, while the GBP tested new lows, falling to 1.2200. Commodity currencies were not immune, with the AUD dipping to 0.7540, while the NZD dipped to 0.7050. A light economic data week allows diversion and musing over Central Bank perceived actions.
Posted on 12 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 11 - Oil surges on Russian deal
Recent weakness in the NZ Dollar, pushed the KIWI back to 0.7120, while the AUD held above 0.7600. Oil prices surged to $51/barrel after President Putin confirmed collusion on a global cap on production with the OPEC cartel. German Trade data continued to show resilience with both Exports and Imports showing healthy gains.
Posted on 10 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 8/9 - GBP haemorrhage continues
The KIWI stabilised around 0.7150, while the AUD attempts to regain 0.7600 The EUR pushed back towards 1.1200, while the GBP continued to haemorrhage, falling to 1.2430. Sterling will stimulate trade and when the rebound commences, watch the backlash, as there will be a correction. The KIWI stabilised around 0.7150, while the AUD attempts to regain 0.7600, despite respective efforts from Central Banks.
Posted on 10 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 7 - KIWI falls further
The AUD fell to 0.7575, while the KIWI has plunged to below 0.7150 Commodity currencies were not immune to the rising Dollar, with the AUD falling to 0.7575, while the KIWI has plunged to below 0.7150. All eyes remain on the NFP's and the speculation that will ensue! He's Our Rokkii in the Toorak!
Posted on 8 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 6 - US Rate rise empty rhetoric
The NZD is now testing 0.7150, while the AUD holds above 0.7600, cementing one direction for the Trans-Tasman cross. Talk of a Fed rate rise is empty rhetoric on the eve of a Presidential election. The EUR held 1.1200, while the GBP trades on lows of 1.2750, despite positive UK economic data. Commodity currencies have reacted to a general campaign from the local Central Banks aided by reinforcement from the Dollar.
Posted on 6 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 5 - Dr Phil says more of the same
The AUD fell to 0.7620, while the NZD looks to test 0.7200, aided by a weaker Dairy auction. The RBA left rates unchanged, under the newly appointed Governor (Dr Philip) Lowe, who embraced continuity in words and action. The AUD was steady until the rising reserve hit the currency overnight. The AUD fell to 0.7620, while the NZD looks to test 0.7200, aided by a weaker Dairy auction.
Posted on 4 Oct