Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- February 8, 2013 - Jawboning the Euro

by Collinson FX on 9 Feb 2013
Denmark 49er FX - Day 4, Oceanbridge Sail Auckland 2013 © Richard Gladwell http://www.richardgladwell.com

Collinson FX market Commentary: February 8, 2013

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

ECB President Draghi decided to leave rates unchanged at 0.75% and jawboned the single currency lower with commentary. He sees risk to the downside within the ECB and the strength of the currency as a determining factor in the recovery.

The EUR plunged to below 1.3400 and the GBP steady at 1.5700. The Bank of England left rates unchanged and talked readiness for more stimulus. UK GDP remained at zero and Industrial and Manufacturing continued to slide. EU Ministers gather for the first summit since English PM Cameron vocalised the possibility of a withdrawal from the EU.

Threats to the Community have never been greater with Economic conditions worse than ever and a group of leaders incapable of solving the crises. In the US, Jobless Claims fell slightly and productivity fell 2% with labour costs rising 4.5%. The rise in Labour costs is great news for the worker but usually signals the rise of inflation.

This signal should be taken seriously because inflation is the biggest fear of most economists. Australian Employment remained steady but the nature of the measures are not to be believed. Full-time employment has been steadily on the decline while the numbers hold steady due to growth in part-time numbers.

Part-time is recognised as working 1 hour per week so the data is questionable at best! The AUD fell to 1.0280 and the KIWI slipped back to 0.8300.

The focus at the close of the week will be the EU summit and developments therein.


Collinson FX market Commentary: February 7, 2013

European leaders are set to gather to discuss current issues after what has been a bullish start to the year. All EU problems are behind them now they have solved the debt/deficit crises and have robust growth, solving all ills. Absolutely amazing that pundits accept the current economic/political situation with deficits running as high as ever, building ever increasing debt which is unserviceable in most cases.

The EUR retraced back to 1.3500 and the GBP continues to capitulate at 1.5650. In the US, there was little political or economic activity, in terms of releases, and the markets stuttered. All eyes will be on the ECB and the BofE later tonight with their take on the robust nature of the recovery. With little ammunition in the armoury, it will be about the commentary more than anything.

The situation remains dire and because the spotlight is off, little attention is paid. These problems remain and will come back to haunt investors. Bulls remain deluded and reality will eventually strike home with avengeance.

The AUD stumbled after Retail Sales contracted 0.2% as the political turmoil continues.

The AUD struggled to hold 1.0300 and looks set for further assaults despite the lack of action from the RBA. The poorer cousin, NZD, continues to hold above 0.8400 but remains tenuous.



Collinson FX market Commentary: February 7, 2013

The Dow broke through the all important 14,000 barrier for the first time since the global recession hit markets. The flood of liquidity must go somewhere and equities provide some return unlike fixed interest. The scramble to invest is a direct result of the panic to avoid 'missing the equity boat'!

Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed falling to 157,000 and Unemployment rose to 7.9% but this was ignored with 2012 data revised upwards and analysts confident the economy will support risk investments. The University of Michigan Confidence index surged to 73.8 reversing previous economic indicators. This was all the cash flush bulls needed and they jumped in boots and all. The record start to the year continues with gay abandon, fueled by Bernanke and wheelbarrows full of money.

The KIWI continued to reflect the assault on the USD, rising to just under 0.8450, after the RBNZ notably missed the opportunity to cut rates in response to the rising 'currency wars'. The AUD remained trading around 1.0400 as political turmoil engulfs the nation. The longest election campaign in history was closely followed by the arrest of crucial MP Thomson who props up this disastrous administration. The situation has deteriorated with a string of resignations from the cabinet as the rats abandon the sinking ship.

All eyes will turn to the RBA when they announce their rate decision with the heat on them to respond to the Fed and BoJ.

The coming week will continue to monitor the progress of the bulls on equity markets as technicals point to no ceiling in sight. ECB and the BoE will come into focus later in the week with little capacity to cut rates but their attitude to Money supply and commentary will have an impact.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Rio 2016 - The Qualification Games - Part 2
Yachting NZ's refusal to nominate in three classes won in the first round of 2016 Olympic Qualification is unprecedented Yachting New Zealand's refusal to nominate in three classes won in the first round of 2016 Olympic Qualification is without precedent. Subject to Appeal, the Kiwis have signaled that they will reject 30% of the positions gained in the ISAF World Sailing Championships in Santander in 2014.
Posted on 22 May
Gladwell's Line - World Sailing changes tack after IOC windshift
Over the past year, we've given the International Sailing Federation (now re-badged as World Sailing) a bit of stick Over the past year, we've given the International Sailing Federation (now re-badged as World Sailing) a bit of stick. Every blow well earned over issues such as the pollution at Rio, the Israeli exclusion abomination plus a few more. But now World Sailing is getting it right.
Posted on 21 May
Rio 2016 - The Qualification Games - Part 1
Antipodean selection shenanigans aside, the Qualification system for the Rio Olympics appears to be achieving its goals Antipodean selection shenanigans aside, the Qualification system for the Rio Olympics appears to be achieving goals set in the Olympic Commission report of 2010. Around 64 countries are expected to be represented in Rio de Janeiro in August. That is a slight increase on Qingdao and Weymouth, but more importantly a full regional qualification system is now in place
Posted on 19 May
Taming the beast-a conversation with Stuart Meurer of Parker Hannifin
While AC72 cats were fast, they difficult to control, so Oracle partnered with Parker Hannifin to innovate a better way. If you watched videos of the AC72s racing in the 34th America’s Cup (2013), you’re familiar with the mind-boggling speeds that are possible when wingsail-powered catamarans switch from displacement sailing to foiling mode. While foiling is fast, there’s no disguising the platform’s inherent instability. Now, Oracle Team USA has teamed up with Parker Hannifin to innovate a better way.
Posted on 18 May
From foiling Moths to Olympic starting lines-a Q&A with Bora Gulari
Bora Gulari’s is representing the USA at the Rio 2016 Olympics in the Nacra 17 class, along with teammate Louisa Chafee. Bora Gulari (USA) has made a strong name for himself within high-performance sailing circles, with wins at the 2009 and 2013 Moth Worlds. In between, he broke the 30-knort barrier and was the 2009 US SAILING Rolex Yachtsman of the Year. His latest challenge is representing the USA at the Rio 2016 Olympics in the Nacra 17 class as skipper, along with his teammate Louisa Chafee.
Posted on 12 May
Concern for Zika at Rio Olympics is now deadly serious
Alphabet soup is one description that has thus far not been used for either Guanabara Bay, Alphabet soup is one description that has thus far not been used for either Guanabara Bay, or the Rio Olympics. Many others have, and they were apt, but things have changed. So here now we have a situation where one man, Associate Professor Amir Attaran, who does have a more than decent string of letters after his name, is bringing nearly as many facts to bear as references at the article's end
Posted on 12 May
The importance of being Alive
Since buying the stunningly pretty Reichel-Pugh canting keel 66-footer, and re-naming her Alive, Since buying the stunningly pretty Reichel-Pugh canting keel 66-footer, and re-naming her Alive, the team have lined up for a lot of things, won plenty and nabbed a record, as well. She’s presently in a yard in the Philippines having a minor refit in readiness for the Australian season. It will commence with the upcoming Brisbane to Keppel and then head sharply into this year’s Hobart.
Posted on 10 May
Zhik - The brand born of a notion, not its history
here is probably every reason that ocean rhymes with notion. Zhik’s tagline is officially marketed as Made For Water There is probably every reason that ocean rhymes with notion. Zhik’s tagline has been officially marketed as Made For Water, and this is precisely what the company has done for the last eight years before the succinct and apt strapline came from out of R&D and into mainstream visibility.
Posted on 8 May
Shape of next Volvo Ocean Race revealed at Southern Spars - Part 1
Southern Spars has been confirmed as the supplier of spars for the 2017-18 Volvo Ocean Race. In mid-April, Race Director, Jack Lloyd and Stopover Manager Richard Mason outlined the changes expected for the 40,000nm Race during a tour of Southern Spars 10,000sq metre specialist spar construction facility. A total of up to seven boats is expected to enter, but time is running out for the construction of any new boats.
Posted on 3 May
Will NZ's most successful Olympic Sailing event cop the Selection axe?
New Zealand qualified in all ten of the 2016 Olympic events at the first round of Qualifying in Santander Spain New Zealand qualified in all ten of the 2016 Olympic events at the first round of Qualifying in Santander Spain in September 2014. In two of those the RS:X Windsurfing event, New Zealand is unlikely to be represented in the Men's event, and in the Women's event, Natalia Kosinska would appear to be a borderline selection.
Posted on 2 May