Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- August 22, 2012 - Apple symbolic

by Collinson FX on 22 Aug 2012
Image of the Day The winning Dragon in action - Russian Open Championships 2012 Carlo Borlenghi © http://www.carloborlenghi.com

Collinson FX market Commentary: August 22, 2012

In a world where Apple has become the biggest company in US history you have to wonder? A company that produces the iPhone and iPad is selling so many, at such a huge margin, that they are now worth more than many small countries. The company is beloved by stock holders but is symbolic of the current downturn in the US.

The brains trust reside in the bankrupt California but all production occurs in China. Sales are global and therefore revenues remain global due to the US tax system. This is indicative of the 'new normal', where growth and revenue occur offshore and the static domestic growth of Western Nations continues to be mired in socialised debt and budgetary crises.

The only respite is further Central bank intervention in expanding liquidity to the banks who refuse to stimulate the small/medium business but rather invest in the impending bubble that is treasuries! The monetary stimulus is eroding citizens wealth in real terms at a dramatic rate but I guess that is the plan. The EUR rallied to 1.2480 after concerns wavered in Europe as Merkel appointee to the ECB, Asmussen, endorsed an unlimited ECB Bond Buying program.

The sheer desperation of unlimited purchase of debt is astounding. It will solve the problem short-term but builds an almost insurmountable problem down the track. Some one has to pay the interest on the debt when budgets can not meet current obligations?!Fitch has warned of further downgrades after rallies in equities hit year highs on the back of monetary stimulus prospects. A removal of cancerous cells, in the form of Greece, may well provide some support for the single currency but that is assuming that Spain and Italy do not need a cull.

The GBP broke out of technical levels on the upside after the Bank of England endorsed a steady interest rate policy.

The RBA reiterated a steady as she goes policy with steady growth and inflation. The need to intervene is not pressing with monetary policy soft providing a surety for AUD holders at 1.0485. The KIWI traded around 0.8100 despite weak Credit Card expenditure and a flight of citizens to the Australian mining sector.

The Fed minutes may provide action but focus will increase on the central bank conference at Jackson Hole!



Collinson FX market Commentary: August 21, 2012

Mixed messages from Europe sent stocks lower although quiet economic data releases restricted moves. The Bundesbank has reiterated their reservations with regards the ECB's intended Bond buying program.

The reality is that Germany becomes the lender of last resort to a spiralling out of control Europe. A story was also circulating of the ECB imposing a cap on EU Bonds, would have enormous implications in terms of free market operation with far reaching unintended consequences. Merkel meets Hollande Thursday so this may have an impact as they mutually attempt to reassure markets. The EUR has traded sideways at 1.2350 and the GBP reaching 1.5700.

In the US, the Chicago Fed's Manufacturing Index slid lower but the lack of a dramatic collapse in the economy prevents the Fed intervening. Markets will look to the EU Debt/Deficit crises developments for direction and the Fed minutes later in the week.

The AUD stabilised to trade 1.0450 with political rumours swirling of an early election driven by a failure in the Budget surplus and an avalanche of pressure from failed economic policies. A look at the RBA minutes may give insight to the Central Banks view of economic conditions.

The KIWI also held below 0.8100 with not much going on domestically. Central Banks and leading politicians will provide market direction with technicals pointing to substantial resistance on the upside!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 29 - Reds back oil pumping cuts
Opec plus Russia reached an agreement to cut oil production overnight which allowed the price to move back to $47/barrel Opec plus Russia reached an agreement to cut oil production overnight which allowed the price to move back to $47/barrel. They do not have the sway of the cartels from the past and solidarity will be desperately hard to pursue.
Posted today at 12:55 am
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 28 - USD weakens as others gain
KIWI jumped back towards 0.7300, while the AUD broke above 0.7650 This did little for the Dollar, as the EUR jumped to 11220, while the GBP regained 1.3000! The reserve weakness enabled the KIWI, which jumped back towards 0.7300, while the AUD broke above 0.7650. Economic data confirms Central Bank speculations and realities.
Posted on 28 Sep
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 27 - Oil Production cuts?
The NZD was under pressure, with speculation of RBNZ cuts, adding to worrying trade data. The NZD was under pressure, with speculation of RBNZ cuts, adding to worrying trade data. The trade deficit widened, with a rise in Imports and a fall in Exports, spurred by the overvalued KIWI. The NZD fell to the low 0.72's, but regained some ground overnight, to trade above 0.7250.
Posted on 26 Sep
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 25 - The price of Brexit
NZD fell to 0.7230, while the AUD drifted back towards 0.7600 European economic data was benign, as expected, with Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI data flat. French GDP contracted and promises of a future, without Britain, is not bright. The EU has brought in many members, over the years, but most are net 'takers'.
Posted on 26 Sep
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 23 - USD continues to sag
NZD clings on to 0.7300. The AUD has pushed above 0.7650, but drifted in late trading, despite a weakening Dollar. The ECB and RBNZ continued the inaction of the Fed and the Bank of Japan. The RBNZ has left rates unchanged and seemed content with local economic conditions. The Jaw-boning of the currency continued, but to no avail, as the currency holds around 0.7300.
Posted on 24 Sep
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 22 - Bank flicks policy
Commodity currencies moved higher, with the AUD testing 0.7600, while the KIWI consolidates above 0.7300. Markets were dominated by the Fed and the Bank of Japan overnight. The BoJ was the first cab off the rank, announcing a complete upheaval of the Banks Central Bank monetary policy. The attempt is to control asset growth and interest rates through monetary manipulation.
Posted on 22 Sep
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 21 - Dairy Auction stunts KIWI
The New Zealand Dairy Auction revealed a halt in recent rises, stunting the currency The Dollar remained steady, with the EUR trading 1.1150, while the GBP slipped below 1.3000. The New Zealand Dairy Auction revealed a halt in recent rises, stunting the currency, with the KIWI attempting to hold 0.7300. Australian consumer confidence was steady, which was reflected in the currency, which traded around 0.7550. All eyes remain on the Fed and the Bank of Japan!
Posted on 21 Sep
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 20 - Bloomberg bats for KIWI
Bloomberg has come in to bat for the KIWI, offering justification for the relative currency strength Bloomberg has come in to bat for the KIWI, offering justification for the relative currency strength, citing the 3.6% GDP number. This will undermine any argument the RBNZ has to cut further, but look at comparable interest rates?? The NZD trades around 0.7300, while the AUD holds around 0.7550, fighting a rising reserve.
Posted on 20 Sep
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 18 - RBNZ decision factored in?
The AUD fell below 0.7500, while the NZD dropped to 0.7250, perhaps anticipating the coming RBNZ rate decision!? The Pounds momentum seems to be in reverse, with the Dollar aiding to the dovish Bank of England monetary policy. The coming week will not be a huge one for economic data releases, so expect further speculation, with regards Central Bank activity. The AUD fell below 0.7500, while the NZD dropped to 0.7250, perhaps anticipating the coming RBNZ rate decision!?
Posted on 19 Sep
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 16 - US shrinks while NZ grows
The NZD also rallied back to 0.7300, boosted by the reserve and better than expected GDP growth The NZD also rallied back to 0.7300, boosted by the reserve and better than expected GDP growth, while Manufacturing PMI was steady. Data just confirms speculation on Central Bank moves and markets will focus on the Fed and Bank of Japan announcements next week!
Posted on 16 Sep