Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- August 22, 2012 - Apple symbolic

by Collinson FX on 22 Aug 2012
Image of the Day The winning Dragon in action - Russian Open Championships 2012 Carlo Borlenghi © http://www.carloborlenghi.com

Collinson FX market Commentary: August 22, 2012

In a world where Apple has become the biggest company in US history you have to wonder? A company that produces the iPhone and iPad is selling so many, at such a huge margin, that they are now worth more than many small countries. The company is beloved by stock holders but is symbolic of the current downturn in the US.

The brains trust reside in the bankrupt California but all production occurs in China. Sales are global and therefore revenues remain global due to the US tax system. This is indicative of the 'new normal', where growth and revenue occur offshore and the static domestic growth of Western Nations continues to be mired in socialised debt and budgetary crises.

The only respite is further Central bank intervention in expanding liquidity to the banks who refuse to stimulate the small/medium business but rather invest in the impending bubble that is treasuries! The monetary stimulus is eroding citizens wealth in real terms at a dramatic rate but I guess that is the plan. The EUR rallied to 1.2480 after concerns wavered in Europe as Merkel appointee to the ECB, Asmussen, endorsed an unlimited ECB Bond Buying program.

The sheer desperation of unlimited purchase of debt is astounding. It will solve the problem short-term but builds an almost insurmountable problem down the track. Some one has to pay the interest on the debt when budgets can not meet current obligations?!Fitch has warned of further downgrades after rallies in equities hit year highs on the back of monetary stimulus prospects. A removal of cancerous cells, in the form of Greece, may well provide some support for the single currency but that is assuming that Spain and Italy do not need a cull.

The GBP broke out of technical levels on the upside after the Bank of England endorsed a steady interest rate policy.

The RBA reiterated a steady as she goes policy with steady growth and inflation. The need to intervene is not pressing with monetary policy soft providing a surety for AUD holders at 1.0485. The KIWI traded around 0.8100 despite weak Credit Card expenditure and a flight of citizens to the Australian mining sector.

The Fed minutes may provide action but focus will increase on the central bank conference at Jackson Hole!



Collinson FX market Commentary: August 21, 2012

Mixed messages from Europe sent stocks lower although quiet economic data releases restricted moves. The Bundesbank has reiterated their reservations with regards the ECB's intended Bond buying program.

The reality is that Germany becomes the lender of last resort to a spiralling out of control Europe. A story was also circulating of the ECB imposing a cap on EU Bonds, would have enormous implications in terms of free market operation with far reaching unintended consequences. Merkel meets Hollande Thursday so this may have an impact as they mutually attempt to reassure markets. The EUR has traded sideways at 1.2350 and the GBP reaching 1.5700.

In the US, the Chicago Fed's Manufacturing Index slid lower but the lack of a dramatic collapse in the economy prevents the Fed intervening. Markets will look to the EU Debt/Deficit crises developments for direction and the Fed minutes later in the week.

The AUD stabilised to trade 1.0450 with political rumours swirling of an early election driven by a failure in the Budget surplus and an avalanche of pressure from failed economic policies. A look at the RBA minutes may give insight to the Central Banks view of economic conditions.

The KIWI also held below 0.8100 with not much going on domestically. Central Banks and leading politicians will provide market direction with technicals pointing to substantial resistance on the upside!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 29 - Dust settles on Brexit
The dust is starting to settle post Brexit. Equity markets are regaining some lustre as reality dawns. The dust is starting to settle post Brexit. Equity markets are regaining some lustre as reality dawns. The British PM met with European leaders, bring a certain reality home, while warning of an amicable divorce. Markets are looking for certainty and confidence, while the Dollar charges on.
Posted on 29 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 28 - Europe bleeds post-Brexit
European equities continue to haemorrhage, suggesting the Brexit may impact the EU more than the UK The EUR held steady on 1.1000, despite safety flows to the USD and Yen. European equities continue to haemorrhage, suggesting the Brexit may impact the EU more than the UK, shedding almost 12% in the two post Brexit fallout. The FTSE has only dropped 6% since the poll, while US markets even less, with risk of further exits in the offing.
Posted on 28 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 26 - Europe is biggest loser
The Brexit is a bigger disaster for the EU than the UK. The British are now free to pursue trade, globally The Brexit is a bigger disaster for the EU than the UK. The British are now free to pursue trade, globally, assuming the greatest trade nation status it once occupied. Buy GBP's! More exports for NZ and Australia! The Dollar was the safe haven play as expected.
Posted on 25 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 25 - Markets initially hope IN
Markets traded as if 'remain' had won the brexit referendum, as polls and odds indicated Markets traded as if 'remain' had won the brexit referendum, as polls and odds indicated, with equities surging and the Dollar surrendering recent gains. The results will be out soon enough, but the implications are clear, with the GBP surging to 1.4915. The retreat in the Dollar was reflected across the board, with the EUR rising to 1.1350
Posted on 24 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 23 - Markets on eggshells
Brexit remains the only issue driving markets overnight. Brexit remains the only issue driving markets overnight. Yellen, the Fed President, completed her second day in front of law makers. She cited the disastrous Non Farm Payrolls numbers last month, referring to it as 'transitory', confirming interest rate rises. Rhetoric is fairly empty. although hugely important to markets, driving the Dollar lower.
Posted on 24 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 24 - Waiting for Brexit
Brexit remains the only issue driving markets overnight. The Dollar is treading water, ahead of the Brexit vote, with the EUR holding below 1.1300 and the JPY crawled above 104.00! The GBP remains below 1.4700, recovering with the resurgent 'remain' campaign, although the race will be tight. Bookies are overwhelmingly with the status quo, so it is hard to see a radical result, unfortunately.
Posted on 23 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 22 - Brexit swing spooks Brits
The KIWI hit year highs, around 0.7169, but retreated back to 0.7150. The AUD breached 0.7500 overnight, but settled back around 0.7470, driven by a drifting Dollar. The KIWI hit year highs, around 0.7169, but retreated back to 0.7150. All eyes remain on the UK vote, which will consume markets for the entire week, with the latest polls driving currencies and equities.
Posted on 22 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 21 - Brexit poll points to stay
UK Brexit polls turned sharply over the weekend, surging in a reversal, leaning back to the remain campaign. Commodity prices regained some momentum, bolstering the associated currencies, pushing the NZD to 0.7100 and the AUD to 0.7450. This is a week where the referendum will dominate markets and change seems unlikely. The dire warnings and pressure internally and externally are overwhelming.
Posted on 21 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 18 - Bookies tip Brits to stay
The KIWI has attracted further interest, post GDP, trading around 0.7050. The aftermath of the murder of the Yorkshire MP has left an unnatural silence hanging of the suspended Brexit debate. The intermission is likely to end in a subtle finger pointing from the 'stay' campaign, as desperation rises, to combat polls. The bookies still have the remain mob winning, which is probably likely, as change is more difficult.
Posted on 19 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 17 - GDP rise pumps KIWI
NZ GDP was better than expected, rising 0.7%. This added further fuel to the currency, which jumped back to 0.7040 NZ GDP was better than expected, rising 0.7%, leading to a rise of 2.8% annually. This added further fuel to the currency, which jumped back to 0.7040, reflecting the positive state of growth in comparison to other western economies. The AUD slipped back to 0.7350, despite steady Employment data, with the pending election consuming the local scene.
Posted on 17 Jun