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Collinson FX Market Commentary- August 16, 2012 - Bad news turns good

by Collinson FX on 16 Aug 2012
In line with their country’s economic performance, Greece finished 20th in a 20 boat fleet in the 49er class in the 2012 Olympic Regatta © Richard Gladwell

Collinson FX market Commentary: August 16, 27, 2012

Bad news has become good news as world markets stand on their head. Economic data has been nothing less than terrible revealing a story of recession in Europe and no solution to the debt/deficit crises. Growth has now confirmed the recession in Europe but the inability to confront the issues has resulted in a steady decline.

Economic data continues to deteriorate but the sheer lunacy of market expectations, in terms of Central Bank intervention, remains. The worse the crises deepens the higher the expectation of further monetary stimulus boosting markets!? The crazy situation is exemplified with hope revolving around liquidity and not fiscal consolidation. Stop spending more than you earn. Keynes was wrong!

In the US, markets remained steady in the calm before the storm. Industrial Production rose 0.6% and Manufacturing by 0.5% reflecting the relative improvement in the terms of trade. The New York Manufacturing Index fell, contradicting production data and sending mixed messages. The EUR traded below 1.2300 and sideway moves reflects the sentiment of market participants.

Commodities also showed little, with the AUD moving back above 1.0500 despite a fall in Consumer Confidence. The KIWI rallied back to 0.8070 in a tight trading range awaiting substantive eco-political news.
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