Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- April 3, 2013 - Equities' virgin land

by Collinson FX on 3 Apr 2013
Wired (Bakewell-White 52) - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3 Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX market Commentary: April 3, 2013

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

The Bernanke Equity bubble continued to grow as equities reached further virgin territory. The sheer volume of liquidity being pumped through QE has overwhelmed markets looking for a positive return forcing them into equity markets.

The latest rally was sparked by a rise in Factory Orders (3%) although New York's ISM fell from 58.8 to 51.2. The string of improving economic data in the US is being tempered by contradictory evidence but the Bulls are taking the positives. Fed member, Lockhart, has hinted at reduction in QE as economic conditions improve this year but April is normally a very positive one for equities.

Be prepared for a substantial correction in May as technicals and fundamentals collide. European triggers will remain as conditions remain volatile. EU Unemployment rose to a new record of 12% and PMI all held record low levels. The EUR was weak trading 1.2820 and the GBP 1.5115. The RBA held interest rates at 3%, keeping the powder dry, with commodity prices contracting giving little impetus to the currency.

The AUD held 1.0450 and the KIWI moved to 0.8400 with an improving mix of local commodity prices. Markets will continue in this fashion, save any eco-political surprises from Europe or a dramatic reversal in major economic fundamentals.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.
Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 20-21 - All currencies rise
AUD hitting 0.7450, while the NZD traded above 0.6900 again. The EUR pushed through 1.1200, while the GBP broke above 1.3000, despite weak economic confidence in the Eurozone. The weak reserve enabled commodity currencies, with the AUD hitting 0.7450, while the NZD traded above 0.6900 again. Trumps tour will provide Geo-Political points of issue but may calm the domestic politic.
Posted on 22 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 19 - Pressure off Trump
The AUD held above 0.7400, supported by lower unemployment rate (down to 5.7%), while the NZD slipped back below 0.6900. Markets recovered some of yesterdays lost ground, after an Independent Counsel was appointed to investigate the Russian interference, thereby relieving pressure on Trump. The obstruction charge, that prompted talk of Trumps impeachment, was also questioned. A tape circulated that Comey denied the Presidents intervention.
Posted on 19 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 17 - NZD and AUD all rise
The AUD also continues to rally, consolidating above 0.7400, after the RBA minutes confirmed little change in monetary p The NZ Dairy auction continued to improve, supporting a recovery in the currency, pushing the NZD towards 0.6900. US Housing Starts contracted 2.6%, while Building Permits slipped 2.5%, giving little reason for a Dollar rebound. The AUD also continues to rally, consolidating above 0.7400, after the RBA minutes confirmed little change in monetary policy.
Posted on 17 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 15 - Oil surges after Price Fix
The AUD broke back above 0.7400, in to some clear air, while the NZD held above 0.7850. Oil surged back towards $50/barrel, after Russia and Saudi Arabia struck a deal on limiting supply, looking to push the price up to a higher trading band. US equity markets jumped and the Dollar slipped lower.
Posted on 16 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 13-14 - Budget imbalance
The KIWI (0.6850) has been battered, after the RBNZ indicated accommodative monetary policy would continue The AUD has been under extreme pressure, but quietly moves back towards 0.7400, post Budget. The Australian Budget signalled a different approach to fiscal balance. The Government has been unable to cut some of the expenditure required, being curtailed in the Senate, while political will has dissipated.
Posted on 15 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 12 - Banks sit on their hands
The NZD dropped a big figure, to 0.6828, but recovered overnight to settle around 0.6850 The Bank of England and RBNZ both left rates unchanged, as expected, but associated commentaries were negative. The Bank of England continued current accommodative Monetary Policy and indicated a penchant for rises 'assuming a smooth transition Post-Brexit'! The GBP drifted back to 1.2890, after a recent bull run
Posted on 11 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 9 - Aussies tax banks
The AUD has fallen back to 0.7340, while the NZD slipped below 0.6900, as the reserve recovers. The Australian budget was delivered and changed the focus from a reduction in spending to an expansion of revenue. This is a different approach to the goal of balancing the budget. This is a move away from the ideological 'smaller Government' to expanding tax revenues and avoiding electoral pain.
Posted on 10 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 7 - Macron win expected
The associated currencies were beneficiaries, with the AUD rallying above 0.7400, while the NZD consolidated above 0.690 The EUR trades around 1.1000, so nothing less than a victory for Macron will do, a loss being catastrophic. The only way LePen can make a dent is a strong turnout from the minority, enthusiastic supporters, while inertia is a threat. There is little upside, so most will be square, with a few reckless punters short!
Posted on 7 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 5 - Confidence up on Macron win
The AUD has been the biggest victim, falling below 0.7400, while the NZD dropped below 0.6850. Commodity prices have been under pressure, depressing the associated currencies, which have found no solace in interest rate differentials. The AUD has been the biggest victim, falling below 0.7400, while the NZD dropped below 0.6850. Commodity demand has slipped, hitting energy prices and companies, with soft Chinese demand.
Posted on 4 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 4 - Upbeat US commentary
The AUD dropped a big figure, to trade 0.7430, the NZD was also impacted by the rising reserve, falling to 0.6870, The AUD dropped a big figure, to trade 0.7430, which is testing technical levels that may signal significant downside. The NZD was also impacted by the rising reserve, falling to 0.6870, despite strong local jobs data. French elections threaten European markets while Employment data in the US will be a point of speculation until Friday.
Posted on 3 May