Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- April 16, 2014 - AUD slips back

by Collinson FX on 16 Apr 2014
NZ Etchells Nationals 2014, Day 2, Race 3 © Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX market Commentary: April 16, 2014

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

US Equities continued the momentum upwards struggling to recover the massive hits taken last week. The RBA minutes did not reveal any pending support for the AUD, in the form of interest rates rises, and the currency slipped back to 0.9350.

Commodities have also drifted lower lending little to the commodity based currencies. The KIWI also slipped back below 0.8650 in a risk averse environment. The CPI is released today and any breakout would lead to pressures on interest rates and the currency. The EUR has traded around 1.3800 with the important ZEW Economic Sentiment reporting Germany continues to improve while the Euro-zone stutters.

In the US, the Empire State Manufacturing index slipped, reflecting recent economic sentiment. Inflationary pressures are on the rise with unhelpful fiscal and monetary policies not helping.

The housing market has been a shining light in the recovery but looks to be coming into a testing period which would be a signal to the overall state of the economy. Geo-Political threats are on the rise in Central Europe with the fight for the Ukraine coming to a head.

Russia has the momentum and backbone with the West expecting them to behave in the modern PC way. Fat chance!


Collinson FX market Commentary: April 15, 2014

Equity markets finally rebounded after the hammering to close out last week.

The week ended in hedge funds dumping risk, in the form of overvalued tech stocks, reflected in the pummelling the NASDAQ has taken recently. The Dollar also found some support with the EUR trading 1.3820 and the GBP 1.6725. The Dollar remains under extreme short term pressure with little support from the Fed. Contraction of the Fed's Balance Sheet to a more acceptable (Pre-GFC) level will bring concerted and long term support.

The question is when Yellen will reverse the extreme QE policies adopted by her predecessor and as a dove, one suspects, could be a long time coming!

Retail Sales in the US jumped 1.1%, beating expectations, and bringing some confidence to markets. Consumption is a major driver and recovery would signal a rebound in demand and support recent strength in the recovery.

The AUD is attempting to regain 0.9400 while the KIWI trades 0.8670. The RBA Minutes will be released, early today, which will give an insight into the perceptions of the Australian economy and likely strategies. Is this a 'dead cat bounce'?

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 18 - Brits opt for Free Trade
AUD trading 0.7540, while the NZD moves towards the important technical level of 0.7200. The Dollar continued to drift, as the GBP surged to 1.2400, while the EUR pushed towards 1.0700. Commodity currencies continued to prosper the slide in the reserve, with the AUD trading 0.7540, while the NZD moves towards the important technical level of 0.7200. The inauguration on Friday is the market focus
Posted today at 12:00 pm
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 17 - Hard line on Brexit from May
The AUD drifted back to 0.7470, while the NZD held 0.7100, with all currencies being vulnerable to US Dollar swings. The Trump inauguration, on Friday, has also been the major consideration of markets this week. Doubts have surfaced about global trade and predatory industry/corporate tactics driving nervous speculation. The AUD drifted back to 0.7470, while the NZD held 0.7100, with all currencies being vulnerable to US Dollar swings.
Posted on 17 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 16 - Market jitters over US moves
NZ Consumer Confidence was flat, lending little to a buoyant currency, which held 0.7100. Markets remain in a flux ahead of this week's US Inauguration with high expectations and uncertainties. The Dollar settled, with the EUR trading 1.0640, while the Yen held 114.00. NZ Consumer Confidence was flat, lending little to a buoyant currency, which held 0.7100.
Posted on 16 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 13 - Trump can't save dollar
The AUD continued to rally strongly, pushing toward 0.7500, while the NZD set to break out targets at above 0.7200 The markets reversal began during the Trump press conference the previous day and continued as analysts digested the repercussions. The 'Trump effect' has been dented as a wider discussion ensues. Trumps promises of lower taxes, fiscal stimulus and deregulation have been roundly welcomed and boosted the equity markets and the Dollar.
Posted on 13 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 12 - Late reversal for USD
A dramatic reversal in the Dollar has seen the AUD surge to 0.7470, while the NZD broke strongly above 0.7000! The focus remains on the US and the incoming administration. Update in late market trade in the US. A dramatic reversal in the Dollar has seen the AUD surge to 0.7470, while the NZD broke strongly above 0.7000!
Posted on 12 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 11 - US Confidence surges
The AUD traded up to 0.7350, while the NZD slipped back below 0.7000, impacting the cross rate. Australian Consumer Confidence also surged, pushing to 120.1 from 113.40, which has influenced the local currency. The AUD traded up to 0.7350, while the NZD slipped back below 0.7000, impacting the cross rate. Markets remain focused on the incoming US administration while economic data drives daily direction.
Posted on 11 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 10 - Australia moves ahead
The AUD reflected this, pushing back to 0.7350, while the NZD regained 0.7000. Australian economic data was positive, with construction rebounding, while Building Approvals jumped. The AUD reflected this, pushing back to 0.7350, while the NZD regained 0.7000. Economic data will drive markets in the lead up to the inauguration of Trump!
Posted on 10 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 7 - US markets and dollar rebound
The Dollar also resumed upward momentum, with the EUR slipping to 1.0540, while the Yen retreated to 117.00. Non Farm Payrolls added 156,000 jobs versus an expected 204,000, while the Employment number crept up to 4.7%, although wage growth was positive. The Dollar also resumed upward momentum, with the EUR slipping to 1.0540, while the Yen retreated to 117.00. The Trump dynasty fast approaches and expectations are high.
Posted on 9 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 6 - US turns negative corner
AUD jumping to 0.7330, while the NZD spiked above the big figure of 0.7000 These employment reports may have cast some uncertainty on markets, as equities fell and the Dollar retreated, with the first negative moves in the US this year. The EUR jumped towards 1.0600, while the Yen moved to 115.00, underlining the Dollar weakness.
Posted on 6 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 5 - Trump arrival drives markets
The AUD took advantage of the retreating reserve, rallying strongly to 0.7270, while the NZD bounced off 0.6900 Trump has indicated a massive fiscal stimulus and dramatic tax reform, combined with deregulation, has seen confidence soar. European Services and Composite PMI managed to move in the right direction but the EU remains challenged. The Dollar has suffered some profit taking, with the EUR pushing back towards 1.0500, while the GBP broke above 1.2300.
Posted on 5 Jan