sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Boats for Sale MarineBusiness-World Sail-World Racing Cruising Int Magnetic Is RW Photo Gallery FishingBoating
Sail-World.com : Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 4: Storm swings south
Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 4: Storm swings south

'The Signal Station on Mt Victoria, Devonport looks out into the murk of Cyclone Lusi, Auckland, March 15, 2014'    © Richard Gladwell    Click Here to view large photo

Tropical Cyclone Lusi hit New Zealand, on late Friday night bringing strong winds and rain to the top half of the North Island. As of Sunday morning the storm is moving south and losing intensity.

Winds gusting to 65kts were recorded at Tiritiri Island in the Hauraki Gulf late yesterday afternoon and over 50kts at Bean Rock at the entrance to the Waitemata harbour.

Now the winds have eased in Auckland, and swung north. The rain is also expected to clear by early Sunday afternoon.

Sail-World started tracking the storm at 2200hrs on Thursday night - see two earlier stories and maps. This latest update is at 1000hrs on Sunday. The times of the shots of the storm can be read alongside each image.

For the Wellington and Christchurch areas, Wellington will escape most of the effects but with some heavy rain forecast late Sunday night.

Christchurch will be harder hit with predictions varying, indicating the path of the storm and rain is unpredictable at present.

Winds are on the rise in Christchurch, but the rain is not really expected to hit until late Sunday afternoon.

By Monday morning the low pressure area will have disappeared off the bottom of the South island and is expected to dissipate.

Isobars and Storm path - 1000hrs - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


Isobars and Storm path - 1600hrs - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


Isobars and Storm path - 2200hrs - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


The first three Isobar images show the progress and expected track of the low pressure area from the Pacific at 1000hrs on Sunday morning and through the rest of Sunday. the storm is gone by Monday.

Predictwind produces two weather predictions based on two independent feeds and then applies various adjustments to take account of a variety of factors including land mass and topography.

As can be seen above, Cyclone Lusi has stayed intact passing over the top of the North Island and will spin out into the Tasman Sea before coming back over the middle of the South Island. Predictwind does take account of topographical features when making its forecasts - which indicates the rainfall in the South Island will be as expected and will have taken the Southern Alps into consideration.

In this Forecast Table from Predictwind.com we are showing the Forecast at Bean Rock, Wellington and Christchurch.

The Forecast table is a composite of all the weather data - showing wind strength (average and gust) and direction from two international feeds enhanced by Predictwind to take account of local features and a number of other factors. For a fuller explanation of how PredictWind enhances its feeds to provide a detailed local forecast click here

Two wind feeds are shown, when the numbers for both are similar, the prognosis has a high degree of certainty, when there is disparity, there is more uncertainty about the forecast.

Also shown is the cloud cover (expressed in a % of cover) and expected rainfall.

Forecast Table - Auckland - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


Forecast Table - Wellington - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


Forecast Table - Christchurch - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


The third graphic shows the real time weather observation points around the Auckland and Christchurch as well as Wellington., these points are used to track the actual wind strength and direction.

Actual readings from Auckland (Bean Rock) and Christchurch (Brighton Pier). The arrows on the map, show the wind direction and the colour indicates wind strength.

Observations - Auckland 0930hrs - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


Observations - Christchurch 0930hrs - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


The fourth set of graphics shows the advance of the rain, which is clearing from Auckland, and is advancing on Christchurch and the South Island, with Wellington expected to escape the worst of the storm due to the fact that it swung out over the Tasman Sea, before coming back over NZ through the centre of the South Island.

Rain 1300hrs Upper North Island - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Rain prediction - Christchurch 1600hrs - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Rain prediction - Wellington 2200hrs - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


This is expected to the last update, but Sail-World will continue to monitor the situation and will update if required.

Predictwind has a couple of great mobile phone apps for Android and iPhone – you can download these and track the storm and observations at your leisure. Dramatic weather events such as Cyclone Lusi are a great opportunity to learn the behavior of weather systems and to upskill your ability to develop your understanding of the weather and how it can affect you – so that you have peace of mind, or develop contingency plans.

Developed by former Olympian, Jon Bilger (470, 1992), PredictWind application was used by the Swiss team Alinghi to win the 2003 and 2007 America's Cups, and has become the leading wind system used by racing and recreational sailors around the world. It is available on a subscription basis and also with a free forecast option.

A mobile app for Android and iPhone is available and PredictWind is probably the most used app on the Sail-World iPhone.

You can check the weather anywhere in the world, and get a five day forecast, plus a variety of other features and functions of PredictWind. The app is synchronised with your PC, so that your latest set of locations are always available without resetting each time you change a device.


by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz


  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=120148

10:34 PM Sat 15 Mar 2014GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.


Related News Stories:

15 Mar 2014  Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 3: 60kts in Hauraki Gulf
14 Mar 2014  Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 2: Storm due late Friday
14 Mar 2014  Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi as she hits New Zealand
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart: Southerly change expected to hit at midnight
03 Dec 2013  ISAF Sailing World Cup Melbourne: Lighter breezes for Day 2
02 Dec 2013  ISAF Sailing World Cup, Melbourne: Fresh breeze, flat water for Day 1
22 Oct 2013  Predictwind: Beat them in a Nor-Wester - 2013 PIC Coastal Classic
25 Sep 2013  America's Cup: Predictwind - Fresh breeze for Final Day 15
24 Sep 2013  America's Cup: Predictwind - Fresh to strong breeze for Day 14
24 Sep 2013  America's Cup: Predictwind - Lighter winds initially for Day 13
MORE STORIES ...






Sail-World Cruising News - local and the World

Dangerous surf conditions for boaters by Transport Roads and Maritime Services
Roads and Maritime Services has issued an alert to boaters about dangerous surf conditions forecast by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) for the next couple of days. ... [more]  

The 2015 Heaven Can Wait Charity Sailing Regatta - organised and run by the Royal Motor Yacht Club Toronto, is done and dusted, but the memories live on. Final tallies are still being worked on, but it is now expected that the event will raise $30,000 in support of the charities – mostly the Hunter Branch of the NSW Cancer Council with a smaller amount going to Lake Macquarie Marine Rescue. ... [more]  

Sunday afternoon squall on Sydney Harbour and a Manly ferry is blasting its horn as an apparently out of control yacht, with sail number 1152 was in danger of colliding with the ferry.Watch the video No reaction from the yacht, its headsails and main luffing it continued on an altered path and does hit the stern of the ferry. Thankfully it seems without major damage or crew injury. ... [more]  

Seven Days, 960 Miles thrilling voyage by Neil & Ley - SV Crystal Blues
Last night the winds finally lifted a little and moved more to the north. So Crystal Blues finally had 'a bone in her teeth', with the apparent wind at 75 degrees to starboard, 9 knots true, and we were skating along in the dark at 6 to 7 knots, flying the mainsail, genoa and staysail. ... [more]  

Sirocco Marine, exclusive distributor for the BRIG brand of premium RIBS in Australia, recently took to local waters to shoot a lifestyle-themed brochure for its current range. ... [more]  

New WA home for BRIG by Sirocco Marine
South Fremantle is now home to a new BRIG headquarters, the only authorised BRIG agent in Western Australia. ... [more]  

Superior Jetties has undertaken a major photo shoot for its Waterscape pontoon and soon to be released range of Waterscape furniture, which will form part of its 2015 global marketing campaign. ... [more]  

The Governor of NSW David Hurley is to be the patron of the new Rotary NSW Emergency Services Community Awards which will be launched on Wednesday, March 4, at Government House, Sydney ... [more]  

Doyle Sails has announced that effective immediately, Peter Boyd will be acting as their representative in the Bay of Islands. The Bay of Islands is a key location for Doyle, particularly with a high percentage of Doyle’s cruising customer base clearing out of Opua. Based in Paihia, Peter will also be spending regular time in the Pacific Islands and can provide support to Doyle cruisers ... [more]  

The record-setting North American winter of 2015 has left us with all kinds of remarkable images, most of them of snow and ice. But a photographer on Nantucket found something most of us have never seen – nearly frozen waves. ... [more]  

Rio de Janeiro's state environmental agency says it is investigating a fish die-off that has left thousands of carcasses floating in waters where sailing events are to be held when Brazil hosts next year's Olympics. ... [more]  

The Salty Dawg Rally (SDR), a cruising rally that has quickly grown to be the most popular one of its kind on the U.S. East Coast, announces the Spring 2015 rally plans, when members of the SDR once again sail out of their ‘Winter headquarters’ in the Caribbean and head home for the warmer months of the year. ... [more]  

Dutch Chief Mate suspended following tragic yacht incident by Maritime and Coastguard Agency Press
On the 8th June 2014 the 'Shoreway', a 98 metre 5000 tonne dredger, owned by Koninklijke Boskalis Westminster NV, collided with a Moody 31 sailing yacht 'Orca' at the entrance to the River Orwell in Suffolk. At the helm of the Shoreway at the time was Mr Gerardus Chapel who was employed as Chief Mate. ... [more]  

Last year, OceansWatch trialled a Climate Change adaptation program in two communities in the Solomon Islands which have been identified as one of the countries that will be most affected by the rising sea levels and increased storm conditions. The low coral atolls where we work are especially vulnerable. ... [more]  

Changed boating conditions for Jetty Beach at Coffs Harbour by Transport Roads and Maritime Services
Vessel operators are advised changed boating conditions will be in place around Jetty Beach at Coffs Harbour on Saturday 7 and Sunday 8 March for the BCU triathlon swim to take place. ... [more]  

Sailors for the Sea and Cruising Club of America will work together to encourage sailors to become stewards of the ocean. Sailors for the Sea, a leading conservation organization that engages, educates, inspires and activates the sailing and boating community toward healing the ocean, will partner with the Cruising Club of America (CCA), an international organization of over 1,300 sailors ... [more]  

Hamilton Island Audi Race Week 2015 – Have you booked your accommodation? It is always good to book early to secure the best properties as these book out first. ... [more]  

Rescued Australian father and son are recovering fast by Sean Flynn | The Newport Daily News
The Australian father and son who were rescued from their 43-foot sailboat Sunday morning in 60-mph winds and 25-foot waves two days after setting out from Jamestown were recovering Monday at the Coast Guard Air Station in Forestdale, Mass., a village in Sandwich. ... [more]  

Airbnb may a popular 'peer-to-peer' lodging site on the web, but if you want to rent a boat in your local area or away, you’ve got options, too. Boatbound.com, Boatsetter.com and Cruzin.com are just a few of the new crop of online websites offering a chance to rent a boat for the day or weekend. ... [more]  

Australian father-son duo delays trip back home by By Matt Sheley | The Newport Daily News
Lousy weather and a wonky autopilot kept the 43-foot sailboat Sedona docked Monday at the Conanicut Marina in downtown Jamestown. Australians Reg and Jason McGlashan rode out the snow in the boat’s cabin, waiting for a marine electrician to show up and fix its electrical system. ... [more]  

The Wine List by Crystal Blues by SV Crystal Blues
After a busy few weeks we are almost ready for our departure to Sri Lanka and beyond. Friends Ray and Jan Pitt signed off the boat in Thailand, leaving us spoiled, relaxed and ready for the future. Four weeks ago we sailed south (overnight) from Koh Phayam, spending four days in Phuket, provisioning and making ready. ... [more]  

Reg and Jason McGlashan spent the weekend getting ready to embark on the journey of a lifetime. In freezing weather, the father-and-son team prepared the 43-foot sailboat 'Sedona' for their 8,600-nautical-mile trip back home to Port Macquarie, Australia. ... [more]  

With shark encounters and bites on the rise, Lindsay Lyon, Shark Advocate and Managing Director of Shark Shield, the world’s only proven shark deterrent technology, provides his tips on preventing a shark attack as the last days of summer roll in. ... [more]  

Making its world debut at the Cannes Yachting Festival in 2014, the Beneteau Oceanis 35 is already making its mark in Australia, with a second place in its division on its first outing at the Festival of Sails, Geelong, Victoria in January. ... [more]  

The Baja Ha-Ha… The 750-mile cruiser rally from San Diego to Cabo San Lucas beckons with adventure, fun and memories-to-be-made. This year 171 boats and 525 participants answered the call. ... [more]  

Oceans of Hope is a Sailing Sclerosis Foundation project that aims to change perceptions of Multiple Sclerosis (MS), inspiring people with the disease to overcome their own personal challenges by telling the stories of those taking part in the first ever circumnavigation by a yacht crewed by people with MS. ... [more]  

Roads and Maritime Services expand live vision of conditions by Transport Roads and Maritime Services
Boaters now have access to live vision of conditions at more locations with an expanded network of 18 cameras in key coastal areas and one alpine waterway in NSW. ... [more]  

Boaters urged to postpone boating until conditions subside by Transport Roads and Maritime Services
Roads and Maritime Services is urging boaters in northern NSW to take extra care and consider whether it is necessary to go boating during heavy rain and blustery conditions resulting from Cyclone Marcia. ... [more]  

Rottnest Island set for the annual Festival of Sail by Susan Ghent, Western Australia
Picturesque Rottnest Island in Western Australia is the ideal backdrop for a weekend of yachting and social activities. Now in its fifth year, the two day Rottnest Festival of Sail will be held over the weekend of 28 and 29 March. Royal Freshwater Bay Yacht Club now invites entries for this annual event. ... [more]  

High seas weather warning for Metarea 10 issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Brisbane at 0907 UTC 19 February 2015. Hurricane force wind warning for North Eastern Area. ... [more]  

Tropical Cyclone Marcia is moving quickly through the Coral Sea towards the Queensland coast. The recent movement has been to the southwest, and it is expected to maintain this general motion through to landfall on the eastern Queensland coast between St Lawrence and Bundaberg early on Friday. Tropical Cyclone Marcia is expected to slowly intensify, with the possibility of reaching category 2 inte ... [more]  

Pacific Sky Power is launching the Kite Controller, a redesigned reel-bar with a compression winch that maintains equal line lengths throughout the launch and retrieval. For kayaks and canoes, this system enables sailing with a kite. ... [more]  

Boat owners cruising in Turkish waters are facing more difficulties because a new law regarding Residence Permits is confusing everyone concerned. ... [more]  

Eleuthera - A luxurious base to unwind yourself and explore islands
Australian first shellfish reefs are restored at Port Phillip Bay
Fire at Middle Harbour Yacht Club caused $500,000 damage
OCA Series - Julie Salisbury shares her seven-year cruising adventures
Dominica – An adventurous land definitely not for the faint of heart!
Galapagos - The Islands imposes stricter environmental inspections
Cruising under Power - Turning to the Dark Side?
50th Newport Bermuda Race - Rousmaniere looks back at 46th Thrash 2008
Research finds alarming levels of plastics wastes in Oceans
Standards Australia committee issues lifejacket safety standards
Polish crew sets new record for furthest south ever sailed by a yacht
Boat ramp sinking - You have to laugh
Setouchi International Yacht Rally preview
Cruising yacht disappears in Bay of Islands
Marine Rescue NSW rescue three boaters on hazardous North Coast bar
Getting your gear (wheel) on
Offshore preparedness the focus of operation ‘Blue Water’
Updated disposal options for unwanted beacons
Boat Docking Secrets - How to Avoid Springline Snap-back
New legislation would fix renewable fuel standard
New legislation would fix renewable fuel standard   
Provisioning the aCappella Way   
Rare and very unusual shark caught by fishermen on NSW Coast   
Best Loch Ness Monster evidence may have been destroyed   
Tall ship falls over - Could your boat do this?   
Dangerous conditions predicted for NSW boaters   
Cruise in company and enjoy a beautiful weekend at Cruising Yacht Club   
Two Somali pirates appeal in deaths of four Americans aboard yacht   
Producing jet fuel from ocean algae   
The true story of Donald Crowhurst set for a major film adaptation   
Humans drive 500 species of land animals extinct, now marine?   
Club Marine magazine subscribers can win Birthday Bonanza prizes   
Predicting coral reef futures under climate change   
Sailors for the Sea launches ocean conservation movement to heal ocean   
Changed boating conditions for Triathlon on Cudgen Creek next Sunday   
Family rescued after catamaran breaks in half   
New Holiday Camps at Lake Macquarie with the H2O Sports Academy   
Sailing Sclerosis Oceans of Hope arrives in Panama City + Video   
Planning an open ocean cruise? Become a Citizen Oceanographer   
Rarely sighted frilled shark turns up in Victorian waters   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News







Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph, contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW Cru SH
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT 

Page does not exist

Unfortunately the web page you were trying to reach does not exist.

Please check the web page address you entered, or try to navigate to this page from the home page at http://www.sail-world.com.